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United States Defence and Security Report Q1 2013
Business Monitor International, January 2013, Pages: 88
Barak Obama was re-elected President in November 2012. While details regarding the president's defence policy are awaited at the time of writing (November 2012), the United States is expected to continue with its plans to withdraw the bulk of its forces from Afghanistan by 2015.
As the US reduces its footprint in the country, it will hand over an increasing share of the security burden to the Afghan National Army and police force.
The eventual withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan is expected to yield significant savings to the Department of Defense budget. For fiscal year (FY) 2013, President Obama has requested US$525.4bn.
During the next decade, the Pentagon is expected to make budget savings of up to US$487bn, which will be achieved, in part, by the cessation of military operations in Afghanistan.
Over the long term, the US will make a major reduction in the size of its strategic nuclear weapons inventory. Currently, around 5,000 operational and reserve nuclear warheads are in the possession of the US armed forces, including around 200 tactical nuclear weapons. The New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) agreement between Russia and the US will see the Department of Defense reduce its air-launched and sea-launched nuclear weapons delivery systems.
Although ballistic missile defence efforts proved highly controversial during the administration of President George W. Bush, they have continued, albeit in a different form, under President Obama's administration. The Missile Defence Agency, the branch of the Pentagon supervising ballistic missile defence initiatives, is currently pursuing several programmes aimed at destroying ballistic missiles during their boost, ascent, midcourse and terminal phases of flight.
Missile defence technology is only one area that the Pentagon is pouring significant funds. The Department of Defense continues to pursue several major defence acquisition projects, not least of which is the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning-II Joint Strike Fighter family of combat aircraft. This is in addition to scores of other programmes across all five US armed services. The abiding raison d'être of many of these initiatives is to make the force more agile and deployable, while at the same time improving the connectivity between soldiers, vehicles, weapons and command and control systems.
Since Q412, BMI has made some changes to the United States Defence and Security Report. These include:
- Full details regarding future and ongoing procurement programmes across the United States Army, Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps.
- Details regarding procurement activities performed by all four services during Q412.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
US Security SWOT 6
US Political SWOT 7
US Economic SWOT 8
US Business Environment SWOT 8
Global Political Outlook 9
Security Risk Analysis 14
Table: Developed States Security Risk Ratings (scores out of 100, with 100 the best) 14
Table: Developed States Vulnerability To Terrorism Index (scores out of 100, with 100 the best) 14
Political Overview 16
Domestic Politics 16
Table: Fiscal Cliff Timeline 17
Foreign Policy - I 19
Foreign Policy - II 20
10 Geopolitical Factors For The Near Future 23
Long-Term Political Outlook 27
United States Security Overview 31
Internal Security 31
Transit Vulnerability 32
Internal Terrorism 33
Crime And Drugs 34
External Security Situation 35
Table: Regional Insurgent Groups - US-Designated Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) 35
Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) 36
North Korea 39
Armed Forces And Government Spending 45
Defence Decision Making 45
Grand Strategy 45
Order of Battle 47
Defence Modernisation 49
International Deployment and Joint Exercises 56
Table: Foreign Deployments 57
Weapons Of Mass Destruction 57
Market Overview 60
Arms Trade Overview 60
Industry Trends and Developments 62
Industry Forecast Scenario 65
Armed Forces 65
Table: US Armed Forces Personnel, 2002-2008 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 65
Table: US Manpower Available For Military Services, 2010-2017 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 65
Defence Expenditure 66
Table: US Defence Expenditure, 2010-2017 67
Table: US Defence Expenditure Scenarios - Changing % Of GDP, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 68
Defence Trade 69
Table: US Defence Exports, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 69
Table: US Defence Imports, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 70
Table: US Defence Trade Balance, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 70
Macroeconomic Forecast 71
Table: United States - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %, 2009-2016 75
Company Profiles 76
L-3 Communications 78
Lockheed Martin 80
Northrop Grumman 82
BMI Methodology 86
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 86
Defence Industry 86