Vietnam Defence and Security Report Q1 2013

  • ID: 2373005
  • January 2013
  • Region: Vietnam
  • 64 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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The Vietnam Defence and Security Report for Q1 2013 examines the country's strategic position in South East Asia and the wider world. It provides an overview of the contemporary geopolitical challenges facing the country, and the challenges it may face in the future.

The report examines the trends occurring in the country's current and future defence procurement, and the order of battle across its armed forces. The intention is to provide a clear and concise discussion of these issues. The report's general conclusion is that Vietnam faces two main security challenges as it heads into 2013: the first is the risk of instability stemming from the economic crisis facing the country; the second is the risk of conflict with China over territorial disputes in the South China Sea.

Vietnam's economic problems are discussed in the report. As well as posing a domestic security challenge, as growth slows and unemployment rises, Hanoi may struggle to fund some of the ambitious defence procurement programmes that it has initiated. Procurement activity certainly appears to have tailed off in recent months, perhaps as a consequence of the uncertain economic outlook. Instead, Hanoi has READ MORE >

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Executive Summary 5

SWOT Analysis 7

Vietnam Security SWOT 7

Vietnam Defence Industry SWOT 8

Vietnam Political SWOT 9

Vietnam Economic SWOT 10

Vietnam Business Environment SWOT 11

Global Political Outlook 12

South East Asia Security Overview 17

The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s 17

Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security 17

Main Islamist Militant Groups In South East Asia 20

Other Regional Threats 24

Sino-US Rivalry In South East Asia 26

The Outlook For South East Asia 27

Security Risk Analysis 28

Asia Pacific Risk Ratings 28
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings 28
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 29

Vietnam's Security Risk 29

Political Outlook 30

Domestic Politics 30

Long-Term Political Outlook 31

Security Overview 34

Internal Security Situation 34

Governance 34

Religion 35

Piracy And Maritime Security 35

Border Security 36

External Security Situation 37

The South China Sea 38

Bilateral Relations 43

Armed Forces And Government Spending 47

Armed Forces 47

Weapons Of Mass Destruction 50

Market Overview 51

Industry Trends And Developments 52

Arms Trade Overview 52

Procurement Trends And Developments 53

Industry Forecast Scenario 54

Armed Forces 54
Table: Vietnam's Armed Forces, 2001-2008 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 54
Table: Vietnam's Manpower Available For Military Services, 2010-2017 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 54

Government Expenditure 54
Table: Vietnam's Defence Expenditure, 2010-2017 55
Table: Vietnam's Defence Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of GDP, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 56

Defence Trade 57
Table: Vietnam's Defence Exports, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 57
Table: Vietnam's Defence Imports, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 58
Table: Vietnam's Defence Trade Balance, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 58

Macroeconomic Forecast 59
Table: Vietnam - Economic Activity, 2009-2016 61

BMI Methodology 62

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 62

Defence Industry 62

Sources 63

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