Canada Oil and Gas Report Q1 2013
Business Monitor International, January 2013, Pages: 123
BMI View:
Production from oil sands will continue to drive Canada's oil production growth in the short term,
although we note that liquid-rich shales could be the new engine of crude output. Exploration in the country's offshore acreage and unconventional resources could unearth more oil and gas reserves to support the country's long-term growth prospects. The outlook for Canada's oil and gas industry is still a rosy one, though its upstream potential needs more support from infrastructure development.
The main trends and developments we highlight for Canada's oil and gas sector are:
- Production from oil sands shows no sign of abating. With major oil sands projects such as ConocoPhillips and Total's Surmount due to come online, and as Shell increases output at its Abathasca Oil Sands Project, oil sands output is set to remain strong and drive production in the next decade. A boom in tight oil production from the Bakken formation in Saskatchewan and similar formations in Alberta will contribute to this surge. We expect oil production to increase from an estimated 3.78mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2012 to 4.40mn b/d in 2016. By 2021, total oil production could hit 4.97mn b/d.
- Gas production will initially fall owing to declining conventional output - especially in Alberta and Saskatchewan - from 146.1bcm in 2011 to 140.3bcm in 2012. However, we expect this trend to reverse as shale gas output growth, particularly from British Columbia, outstrips conventional decline elsewhere in Canada. We have revised our forecast for gas production upwards, and project that it will increase to 148.5bcm in 2016 and reach 187.8bcm by 2021,
spurred by a growth in liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity.
- While existing oil and gas reserves are being depleted as fields mature, successes in unconventional and offshore exploration could find new reserves, posing an upside risk to our forecasts. In June 2012, Apache Corporation claimed that it made the world's largest shale gas discovery in the Liard Basin, British Columbia, with recoverable natural gas estimates at 1.34trn cubic metres (tcm). Statoil also confirmed following a discovery at its Mizzen prospect, offshore Newfoundland, that it could hold 100-200mn barrels of oil equivalent (boe) of recoverable resources. Alberta has also increase its estimates of resource-in-place for the Duvernay, Montney and Muskwa shale formations within its borders - 93.1tcm of gas, 58.6bn bbl of gas liquids and 423.6bn bbl of oil.
- Gas demand will rise as the proportion of gas increases in Canada's energy mix. Consumption growth will also be propelled by the rising energy use at the oil sands facilities, as gas powers much of the oil sands production. Gas consumption is set to grow from an estimate of 90.7bcm in 2012 to 101.5bcm in 2016. This upward trend will continue, with gas consumption expected to hit 117.7bcm by 2021.
- Asian companies such as Korea Gas Corporation (Kogas), Mitsubishi Corporation and PetroChina have been particularly interested in acquiring unconventional gas assets in Canada.
We expect Canada to continue receiving interest from Asian-based companies in gas assets and gas infrastructure. This view has played out, with Petronas launching a takeover bid for Canadian shale gas specialist Progress Energy in June 2012, and CNOOC seeking to acquire Canadian producer Nexen for US$15bn in July 2012. However, we note that these bids are facing intense public scrutiny and their passage could serve as bellwethers for similar acquisitions by large Asian players.
- The abundance of gas production provides Canada with much export potential. Shell's proposal for a 20.4bcm per year gas liquefaction and export facility in Kitimat, British Columbia is a step in the right direction in building up Canada's export capabilities.
- Canada's oil and gas infrastructure face bottlenecks that need to be addressed to move oil and gas more effectively across the country, and out of it. Otherwise, the country will be faced with the paradox of being over-supplied with oil and gas, but prevented from exporting these due to the supply shortages that exports could pose to the domestic consumption needs of particular regions of the country. However, strong environmental concerns will continue to hinder key projects such as the expansion of the TransMountain pipeline and Northern Gateway pipelines. Planned LNG export terminals are likely to face similar regulatory obstacles.
At the time of writing we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2013 of US99.10/barrel (bbl), falling to US$96.20/bbl in 2014. Global GDP in 2013 is forecast at 3.0%, up from an assumed 2.6% in 2012reflecting some recovery in the US, though uncertainty with regard to the eurozone debt situation and an apparent Chinese slowdown will continue to hamper growth. For 2014, growth is estimated at 3.2%.
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT Analysis 9
Canada Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast Scenario 10
Oil and Gas Reserves 10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2010-2016 10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2015-2021 11
Unconventional Oil And Gas 13
Table: Shale Resource In Place, Alberta 14
Oil Supply And Demand 16
Table: Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2010-2016 16
Table: Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2015-2021 17
Gas Supply And Demand 21
Table: Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2010-2016 21
Table: Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2015-2021 22
LNG 25
Refining And Oil Products Trade 26
Table: Refining - Production and Consumption, 2010-2016 26
Table: Refining - Production and Consumption, 2015-2021 26
Revenues/Import Costs 29
Key Risks to BMI's Forecast Scenario 29
Regional And Country Risk/Reward Ratings 30
Table: Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings 31
Table: Oil & Gas Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings 32
Table: Developed States Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings 34
Canada Upstream Rating - Overview 35
Canada Upstream Rating - Rewards 35
Canada Upstream Rating - Risks 35
Canada Downstream Rating - Overview 35
Canada Energy Market Overview 36
Table: Upstream Projects 39
Overview/State Role 42
Licensing and Regulation 43
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 47
Oil Refineries 47
Table: Downstream Projects 47
Service Stations 51
Oil Pipelines 51
LNG Terminals 54
Gas Pipelines 58
Competitive Landscape 61
Executive Summary 61
Table: Key Players - Oil And Gas Sector 63
Table: Key Upstream Players 64
Table: Key Downstream Players 64
Company Monitor 65
Suncor 65
Shell Canada 69
Encana 72
Cenovus Energy - Summary 74
Canadian Natural Resources - Summary 75
ConocoPhillips - Summary 76
Chevron - Summary 79
Devon Energy - Summary 80
Syncrude - Summary 80
BP Canada - Summary 81
Husky Energy - Summary 81
ExxonMobil - Summary 82
Statoil - Summary 85
Total - Summary 86
Murphy Oil - Summary 86
Enbridge - Summary 86
CNOOC/Nexen - Summary 87
Occidental Petroleum - Summary 88
TransCanada - Summary 89
UTS Energy - Summary 90
Gazprom - Summary 90
Ultramar - Summary 90
TAQA - Summary 91
Apache - Summary 92
Penn West - Summary 92
Talisman Energy - Summary 93
PetroChina - Summary 93
Korea National Oil Corporation (KNOC) - Summary 94
Petronas - Summary 95
Others 95
Regional Energy Market Outlook 97
Global Energy Market Outlook 104
Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts - A Comparison 06
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) 10
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 10
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) 10
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 11
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) 11
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 11
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 11
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 12
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 12
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 12
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 13
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 13
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 114
Glossary Of Terms 115
Table: Glossary Of Terms 15
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 117
Ratings Overview 17
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings - Structure 18
Indicators 18
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings - Methodology 18
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings - Methodology 19
BMI Methodology 121
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 21
Energy Industry 21
Cross checks 22
Sources 22
Company Monitor
Suncor
Shell Canada
Encana
Cenovus Energy - Summary
Canadian Natural Resources - Summary
ConocoPhillips - Summary
Chevron - Summary
Devon Energy - Summary
Syncrude - Summary
BP Canada - Summary
Husky Energy - Summary
ExxonMobil - Summary
Statoil - Summary
Total - Summary
Murphy Oil - Summary
Enbridge - Summary
CNOOC/Nexen - Summary
Occidental Petroleum - Summary
TransCanada - Summary
UTS Energy - Summary
Gazprom - Summary
Ultramar - Summary
TAQA - Summary
Apache - Summary
Penn West - Summary
Talisman Energy - Summary
PetroChina - Summary
Korea National Oil Corporation (KNOC) - Summary
Petronas - Summary
Others
Customers who bought this item also bought
All rights reserved. © Copyright 2013 Research and Markets WWW5
Terms and Conditions Privacy Policy Publishers Employment Opportunities Site Map Link to us Webmaster Affiliate Network
