Indonesia Petrochemicals Report Q1 2013
- ID: 2373241
- January 2013
- Region: Indonesia
- 60 pages
- Business Monitor International
The Indonesia Petrochemicals Report Q1 2013 examines the latest plans for the expansion of the country's growing polymer resins sector. However, we warn that declining oil production and a restricted refining base could undermine naphtha feedstock supplies.
Furthermore, this report also analyses many of the trends in the domestic and external markets and the impact of these trends on investment decisions and the way producers manage risk. We also examine the continued potential for domestic consumption growth at a time when supply is unable to keep pace with demand.
The Indonesian petrochemicals market is proving to be stable and is growing, going against the overall trend in the world market. With GDP growth averaging over 6% and appearing to be sustainable, the Indonesian Olefin and Plastics Industry Association (Inaplas) has estimated demand growth in the polymers market at 7.5%. Imports account for around 50% of the market, particularly in feedstock,
despite the country's 620,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) cracker operating at 90-100% capacity throughout 2012 as it sought to fulfil growing demand for polypropylene (PP). With a population of 240mn and strong growth, Indonesia should attract foreign investment in polymers. However, progress has been slow due to high levels of bureaucracy and an opaque regulatory system. This represents the main risk to the development of the Indonesian petrochemicals industry and could derail attempts to expand and diversify the sector.
Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- Most locally produced PP and polyethylene (PE) resins are used in food packaging applications with demand in this sector rising at around 10%.
- A significant increase in petrochemicals capacities is expected in 2013. Pertamina is also planning to open a new 178,000tpa propylene facility, Indorama Ventures is set to open a new 300,000tpa polyester chip plant and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) producer Asahimas Chemical is raising capacity at its Cilegon caustic soda plant by 30% to 500,000tpa. In the fertiliser segment PT Pupuk Kalimantan Timur (Kaltim) is building a large-scale nitrogen fertiliser complex with capacity to produce 2,700 tonnes per day ammonia and 3,500 tonnes per day urea, making it the country's largest fertiliser complex.
- Domestic demand for ethylene was estimated at 1.4mn tonnes in 2012 and is set to top 2mn tonnes by 2017.
- Demand in volume for engineering plastics is expected to grow at an annualized rate of about 9% - from 21,000tpa in 2011 to 45,000tpa in 2020 - as a result of burgeoning growth in the automotive industry.
- Chandra Asri and South Korea's Honam Petrochemical are both planning to expand and this could raise ethylene capacity to 2mn tpa by 2017, making the country self-sufficient.
- In the Asia Pacific Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs) matrix, Indonesia is 10th out of 12 countries with 50.5 points, up just 0.1 point since the previous quarter due to a modest improvement in its country risk score. It sits 11.5 points behind India and 10.6 points ahead of the Philippines. SHOW LESS READ MORE >
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Indonesia Petrochemical Industry SWOT 7
Indonesia Political SWOT 8
Indonesia Economic SWOT 9
Indonesia Business Environment SWOT 10
Global Petrochemicals Overview 11
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 15
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, 2010-2016 16
Table: Middle East Outperforms In Terms of Passenger Growth 20
Emerging Asia Petrochemicals Overview 25
Indonesia Market Overview 29
Market Structure 30
Supply And Demand 31
Table: Indonesian Petrochemical Sector Capacity 31
Industry Trends And Developments 32
Table: Refineries In Indonesia 36
Petrochemicals Risk/ Reward Ratings 37
Asia Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings 37
Table: Asia Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings 39
Indonesia Risk/Reward Ratings 39
Industry Forecast Scenario 41
Petrochemicals Outlook 41
Table: Indonesia's Petrochemicals Sector, 2010-2017 43
Macroeconomic Outlook 45
Table: Indonesia - Economic Activity , 2011-2016 47
Company Profiles 48
Chandra Asri (CACP) 48
Mitsui Chemicals 49
Petrokimia Gresik (Petrogres) 50
Glossary Of Terms 51
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms 51
Demographic Outlook 52
Table: Indonesia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 53
Table: Indonesia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 54
Table: Indonesia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 55
Table: Indonesia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 55
BMI Methodology 56
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 56
Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry 56
Cross Checks 57
Business Environment Ratings 57
Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale 58
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 59