Moldova Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2013
Business Monitor International, January 2013, Pages: 72
BMI View:
Given the high level of reliance on out-of-pocket payments, the growth of the Moldova's pharmaceutical market is expected to be shaped by the prevailing economic conditions, both at home and abroad, on account of the importance of remittances to the country's GDP. For 2012, we expect the market's value to increase at a local currency rate of 6.7%, although this will translate into negative US dollar growth, on the back of a weak leu.
Headline Expenditure Projections:
- Pharmaceuticals: MDL2.47bn (US$211mn) in 2011 to MDL2.64bn (US$204mn) in 2012;
+6.7% in local currency terms and -3.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q412.
- Healthcare: MDL9.06bn (US$773mn) in 2011 to MDL9.64bn (US$747mn) in 2012; +6.4% in local currency terms and -3.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q412.
- Medical devices: MDL669mn (US$57mn) in 2011 to MDL735mn (US$57mn) in 2012; +9.8
%in local currency terms and -0.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q412.
Risk/Reward Rating:
Moldova's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) score, which assesses the country's attractiveness to multinational drugmakers, remains unchanged at 41.8 for Q113. The score places the country second from the bottom in the regional matrix assessing 20 key markets in Central and Eastern Europe. Moldova's risks and rewards are relatively evenly balanced, although both remain considerably lower than the regional averages.
Key Trends And Developments:
- In September 2012, Moldova's government released a draft law that is likely to ban direct-toconsumer
(DTC) advertising for medicines in the country. The draft law now permits drug advertising only through pharmacies and specialised medical journals. The decision against DTC drug marketing has come in the wake of increased overall medicine use in the country that resulted in elevated antibiotic resistance.
- In a related development, in October 2012, the Moldovan Ministry of Health banned the free sale of 80% of drugs in the country. The drugs sold through pharmacies are now sold on prescription.
The ban follows an increasing number of Moldovans getting seriously ill or hospitalised due to misuse of self-medication, Minister of Health Andrei Usatii said. Improper use of the drugs accounts for 30% of hospitalisation cases in the country, according to the ministry.
BMI Economic View:
The downside risks to our economic outlook remain elevated as the eurozone crisis continues, while extreme weather has damaged the agricultural sector. Nonetheless, we hold to our below-consensus forecast for real GDP growth of 2.4% in 2012, based on an assumption of improved domestic demand in H212, although we have cut our target for 2013 to 4.5%, from a previous 5.8%.
BMI Political View:
We expect the government of Moldova to miss its short-term targets for budget deficits of below 1% of GDP by 2015. Nevertheless, we believe its commitment to disciplined fiscal policy will be viewed favourably by businesses and investors, particularly given the current regional crisis. For example, budget policies for 2013 have been sanctioned in parliament, including a controversial value-added tax (VAT) hike in agricultural goods from 8% to 20%, and in natural and liquified gas from 6% to 8%. Increases in excise duties on cigarettes and alcohol also form part of the package of measures, which the government expects will boost revenues by MDL500-600mn from 2013.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Moldova Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT 7
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings 8
Table: Emerging Europe Pharmaceutical And Healthcare Risk/Reward Ratings, Q113 8
Risks 9
Moldova - Market Summary 11
Regulatory Regime 12
Intellectual Property Rights 12
Marketing Authorisation 13
Advertising of Medicines 13
Counterfeit Pharmaceuticals 14
Pricing Regime 14
Reimbursement Regime 15
International Trade Agreements 16
Industry Developments 18
Epidemiology 18
Table: 10 Most Frequent Causes of Death 19
Table: Leading Causes Of Morbidity, % Of Total Disease Burden 20
Communicable Diseases 20
Healthcare Sector 21
Healthcare Financing 22
Table: Public Healthcare Expenditure, 2006-2011 22
Primary Care 24
Secondary Care 24
Table: Physicians And Hospital Beds In Moldova, 2003-2011 25
Compulsory Health Insurance 25
Health Insurance Developments 26
Research & Development 27
Medical Devices 28
Industry Forecast Scenario 30
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast 30
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators 2008-2016 32
Healthcare Market Forecast 34
Table: General Government Budget, 2008-2016 35
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2008-2016 35
Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators 2008-2016 36
Table: Healthcare Private Indicators 2008-2016 36
Key Growth Factors - Macroeconomic 38
Prescription Drug Market Forecast 39
Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016 40
Patented Drug Market Forecast 41
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators 2008-2016 41
Generic Drug Market Forecast 43
Table: Generic Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016 44
OTC Medicine Market Forecast 45
Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2008-2016 46
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast 46
Table: Exports And Imports Indicators 2008-2016 47
Medical Device Market Forecast 49
Table: Medical Device Sales Indicators 2008-2016 49
Key Risks To BMI's Forecasts 51
Competitive Landscape 52
Pharmaceutical Industry 52
Domestic Industry 53
Foreign Industry 53
Recent Pharmaceutical Industry Developments 54
Pharmaceutical Wholesale 54
Pharmaceutical Retail 55
Company Profiles 56
Local Companies 56
Farmaco (Pharmaco) 56
Top Pharm 58
Multinational Companies 59
Gedeon Richter 59
GlaxoSmithKline 61
Novartis (Sandoz) 63
Sanofi 64
Pfizer 65
Glossary 66
BMI Methodology 68
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts 68
Pharmaceuticals Business Environment Ratings 69
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 69
Ratings Overview 69
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators 70
Weighting 71
Table: Weighting Of Components 71
Sources 71
Company Profiles
Local Companies
Farmaco (Pharmaco)
Top Pharm
Multinational Companies
Gedeon Richter
GlaxoSmithKline
Novartis (Sandoz)
Sanofi
Pfizer
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