Switzerland Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2013
Business Monitor International, January 2013, Pages: 86
BMI View:
While the patent cliff and the consequent availability of generic drugs, as well as price cuts on generic medicines and their increasing affordability, will work towards increasing the consumption of generic medicines in Switzerland, BMI believes the government needs to do more to alter patients' attitudes towards these drugs as this is the main growth deterrent.
Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: CHF6.77bn (US$7.63bn) in 2011 to CHF6.58bn (US$7.00bn) in 2012; -2.8% decline in local currency terms and -8.3% in US dollar terms.
- Healthcare: CHF65.30bn (US$73.8bn) in 2011 to CHF67.56bn (US$71.87bn) in 2012; +3.5% growth in local currency terms and -2.6% in US dollar terms.
- Medical devices: CHF4.77bn (US$5.38bn) in 2011 to CHF4.76bn (US$5.06bn) in 2012; -0.3% growth in local currency terms and -5.9% in US dollar terms.
Risk/Reward Ratings: In BMI's Q113 risk/reward ratings (RRRs) for Western Europe, Switzerland has maintained its position as the top market in the Western Europe matrix, above the UK and France.
Switzerland's score for the quarter stands at 70.9, well above the regional average of 65.8. However, BMI anticipates that Switzerland may slip down the world rankings in the medium to long term as large, highgrowth emerging markets such as Brazil and China become more alluring to multinational drugmakers.
Key trends and developments in the sector:
- Roche's 9M12 group sales reached CHF33.7bn (US$35.9bn), a 7% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in local currency terms (0% in US dollars and +4% at constant exchange rate), from CHF31.5bn (US$35.8bn) in 9M11.
-Noavrtis' Q312 group sales reached US$13.8bn, a 7.0% decrease in US dollar terms and a 2% decrease in constant currency terms (cc) from US$14.8bn in Q311. The decline in group sales was contributed by the decline in sales from all business units: pharmaceuticals, the Alcon and Sandoz subsidiaries, the consumer health segment, and vaccines and diagnostics.
BMI Economic View:
Having languished in deflationary territory for nearly a year, the Swiss consumer price index appears to be turning a corner. Some let-up in the eurozone debt crisis following a bold policy response from the European Central Bank, coupled with ultra low policy rates and a potential increase in domestic food prices, would support a return to inflation in 2013. We warn, however, that risks remain to the downside, with potential for a renewed flare up in the eurozone or a hard landing in China, in turn spurring foreign demand for the franc and pushing up the real effective exchange rate.
BMI Political View:
With fiscal austerity biting hard in much of Europe, calls to clamp down on tax exiles have grown louder. This presents the Swiss government with an increasingly uncomfortable dilemma as it attempts to balance the demands of the country's biggest cash cow and the mounting pressure from foreign governments seeking to boost revenue collection. Given the growing list of governments seeking to clamp down on tax avoiders, the Swiss government is likely to push ahead quickly to sign bilateral deals now in order to avoid more punitive agreements further down the road, which could compromise the confidentiality of bank accounts held in the country.
BMI Industry View 7
Executive Summary 7
SWOT 9
Switzerland Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Overall market Forecast 11
Key Growth Factors - Industry 13
Table: Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2009-2016 15
Table: Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators 2009-2016 16
Table: Table: Healthcare Private Indicators 2009-2016 16
Economic Analysis 16
Table: Macro Indicators 21
Prescription Drug Market Forecast 22
Table: Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators 2009-2016 23
Patented Drug Market Forecast 24
Table: Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators 2009-2016 25
Generic Drug Market Forecast 25
Table: Table: Generic Drug Sales Indicators 2009-2016 28
OTC Medicine Market Forecast 28
Table: Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2009-2016 29
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast 30
Table: Table: Exports and Imports Indicators 2009-2016 31
Medical Device Market Forecast 32
Table: Table: Medical Devices Sales Indicators 2009-2016 33
Other Healthcare Data Forecasts 33
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 36
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings 36
Table: Western Europe Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Risk/Reward Ratings, Q113 36
Market Overview 39
Market Overview 39
Industry Trends And Developments 41
Industry Trends And Developments 41
Table: 2013: Health Insurance Premiums 42
Regulatory Development 50
Regulatory Regime 50
Competitive Landscape 58
Competitive Landscape 58
Company Profile 61
Novartis 61
Roche 65
Merck Serono 68
GlaxoSmithKline 71
Pfizer 74
Sanofi 76
Merck & Co 78
Methodology 80
Methodology 80
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 80
Ratings Overview 81
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators 81
Weighting 82
Table: Weighting Of Components 82
Sources 82
Glossary 84
Glossary 84
Demographic Forecast 86
Company Profile
Novartis
Roche
Merck Serono
GlaxoSmithKline
Pfizer
Sanofi
Merck & Co
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