Turkey Metals Report Q1 2013
- ID: 2373264
- January 2013
- Region: Turkey
- 48 pages
- Business Monitor International
BMI's Q113 Turkey metals report examines how the country's steel industry has performed in the face of external headwinds and warns that some segments are facing increased pressure as a result of decreased manufacturing activity in the EU. It examines the latest plant projects and whether output is keeping pace with the ongoing increases in capacity. The report also analyses the investment strategies being employed by the leading players in the Turkish steel industry, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the regional market.
Global Slowdown Finally Catching Up With Turkey
In the first 10 months of 2012, Turkey produced 30.0 million tonnes (mnt) of steel, representing a yearon-
year (y-o-y) increase of 7.0%. This followed a strong performance in 2011, when output grew by 17.2% y-o-y. As a result, Turkey represented 2.4% of global output growth. BMI believes Turkey is still on course for its forecast 6% growth in crude steel output for 2012, to 36.1mnt. The country is increasingly self-sufficient in a broad range of steel products as a result of increased capacity and a moderation in domestic demand growth.
During H112, Turkish flat steel imports were down 5% y-o-y to 2.43mnt, with hot-rolled imports declining 4% and coated steel imports falling 23%, offsetting rises of 14% in cold rolled flats and 2% in strip. At the same time, growth in exports is improving the country's steel trade surplus. Total steel exports grew 9% y-o-y over the period to 11.7mnt, with revenue increasing 4% to US$9.3bn.
In the aluminium sector, the country's sole 60,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) Seydisehir smelter - which has been operating at maximum capacity over the past few years - is unable to fulfil all the country's aluminium requirements. Smelters will also face increased competition from re-melters.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- BMI forecasts 8.1% growth in crude steel consumption in 2013, with consumption set to reach just under 43mnt by 2017. This representing a 42% over the levels forecast for 2012.
- A decline in flat steel product exports is bound up with the reduction in production of vehicles in Europe, with flat production adversely affected by a 5.7% decline in vehicle exports in H112,
which coupled with weak domestic demand led to a 9.1% decrease in Turkish vehicle production.
- Turkish steel producers have been able to almost monopolise the export of billet to Iran by taking advantage of EU sanctions, a situation that has enabled billet exporters to increase their prices. SHOW LESS READ MORE >
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Turkey Business Environment SWOT 7
Europe Metals Overview 8
Industry Forecasts 14
Steel Forecast 14
Table: Turkey - Steel Industry ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 17
Table: Turkey - Steel Industry Historical Data ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 17
Table: Turkey's Primary Aluminium Industry (mn tonnes, unless otherwise stated) 18
Macroeconomic Outlook 18
Soft Landing To Continue Playing Out 18
Table: Turkey - Economic Activity 21
Commodities Forecast 22
Monthly Metals Update 22
Nickel: No Return To 2012 Highs 31
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & BMI Forecasts 34
Steel Forecast 35
Steel To Average US$360/tonne In 2013: Short-Term View 35
Table: Steel Forecast 35
Table: Steel Forecasts 41
Competitive Landscape 42
Table: Turkey - Steel Mills 43
Company Profiles 45
BMI Methodology 47
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 47
Cross Checks 47