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Uganda Defence and Security Report Q1 2013 - Product Image

Uganda Defence and Security Report Q1 2013

  • Published: January 2013
  • Region: Uganda
  • 68 pages
  • Business Monitor International

BMI's Uganda Defence & Security Report for Q1 2013 examines the country's strategic position in the African region and the wider world. It provides an overview of the contemporary geopolitical challenges facing the country, and the challenges it may face in the future.

The report analyses the trends occurring in the country's current and future defence procurement, and the order of battle across its armed forces. The report's general conclusion is that the controversy surrounding Uganda's alleged backing of rebel forces in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) threatens the country's international standing, as well as regional stability. Uganda, a key contributor to regional peacekeeping efforts, has threatened to quit these missions in response to a UN report accusing it of complicity in the insurgency engulfing the eastern DRC. Meanwhile, the M23 rebel group that Kampala is accused of supporting has made substantial gains.

Ultimately, Uganda's long-serving President Yoweri Museveni will be reluctant to withdraw from the prominent regional role into which he has steered the country. Nonetheless, the extent of the political fallout regarding the involvement of Uganda READ MORE >

Executive Summary 5

SWOT Analysis 7

Uganda Security SWOT 7

Uganda Defence Industry SWOT 7

Uganda Political SWOT 8

Uganda Economic SWOT 9

Uganda Business Environment SWOT 10

Global Political Outlook 11

East and Central Africa Security Overview 16

Strategic Outlook for 2010s 16

Population Explosion: 16

Food Security: 17

Ethiopia And Eritrea: 18

Kenya: 19

Sudan And South Sudan: 20

Somalia: 21

Tanzania: 21

Uganda: 22

Security Risk Analysis 23
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence & Security Ratings 23
Table: Middle East And Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 24

Political Overview 25

Domestic Politics 25

Long-Term Political Outlook 26

Security Overview 30

Internal Security Situation 30

The Karamojong 30

The Allied Democratic Forces 31

The Lord's Resistance Army 33

2011 Presidential Election 36

Political Unrest 36

Anti-Homosexual Violence 38

New Threats 39

Terrorism 39

External Security Situation 41

Sudan 41

Côte d'Ivoire 42

Central African Republic 43

United States 44

Kenya 44

Armed Forces And Government Spending 46

Armed Forces 46

International Deployments 50

Latest Developments 51

Market Overview 53

Arms Trade Overview 55

Procurement Trends And Developments 56

Industry Forecast Scenario 58

Armed Forces 58
Table: Uganda's Armed Forces, 2002-2007 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 58
Table: Uganda's Manpower Available For Military Service, 2010-2017 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 58

Government Expenditure 58
Table: Uganda's Defence Expenditure, 2010-2017 59
Table: Uganda's Defence Expenditure, 2010-2017 60

Defence Trade 61
Table: Uganda's Defence Imports, 2010-2017 (US$mn, unless otherwise stated) 61

Debt Relief Initiatives 61

Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario 62

Macroeconomic Forecast 63
Table: Uganda - Economic Activity, 2009-2016 65

BMI Methodology 66

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 66

Defence Industry 66

Sources 67

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