Uganda Defence and Security Report Q1 2013
Business Monitor International, January 2013, Pages: 68
BMI's Uganda Defence & Security Report for Q1 2013 examines the country's strategic position in the African region and the wider world. It provides an overview of the contemporary geopolitical challenges facing the country, and the challenges it may face in the future.
The report analyses the trends occurring in the country's current and future defence procurement, and the order of battle across its armed forces. The report's general conclusion is that the controversy surrounding Uganda's alleged backing of rebel forces in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) threatens the country's international standing, as well as regional stability. Uganda, a key contributor to regional peacekeeping efforts, has threatened to quit these missions in response to a UN report accusing it of complicity in the insurgency engulfing the eastern DRC. Meanwhile, the M23 rebel group that Kampala is accused of supporting has made substantial gains.
Ultimately, Uganda's long-serving President Yoweri Museveni will be reluctant to withdraw from the prominent regional role into which he has steered the country. Nonetheless, the extent of the political fallout regarding the involvement of Uganda and others in the DRC has yet to be revealed. Impressive progress by the AMISOM mission in Somalia, for example, could be reversed if Uganda pulls out its 6,300 troops, as threatened.
Museveni has also rejected calls by parliamentarians for the government to divert funds from defence and other areas into the country's ailing healthcare system. Social unrest is a growing problem in Uganda, and one contributing factor is the government's failure to deliver on promises to invest in healthcare.
Parliamentarians objected to the fact that the government had spent heavily on Sukhoi fighter jets and regional peacekeeping operations, while breaking its pledges on healthcare provision. Despite these concerns, Museveni in September effectively overruled parliament by issuing an executive order that ring-fenced the defence budget, which is now likely to increase in 2013. Increases will be necessary if, as signalled, the president plans to acquire more advanced military systems, including fighter aircraft.
Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- The M23 campaign in the eastern DRC is discussed in detail, as are allegations that Rwanda and Uganda have backed the rebel forces. The implications of Uganda's reaction to the allegations -
namely that it will quit regional peacekeeping missions - are also analysed.
- The progress of the AMISOM mission to support the interim Somali government against al-
Shabaab militants is updated. The mission - which is under Ugandan command - has shown important signs of success as a newly elected Somali president turns his attention to drafting a new national constitution. However, these gains could be reversed if, as threatened, Uganda withdraws from AMISOM.
- Problems with African Union efforts to eliminate Joseph Kony and the Lord's Resistance Army
(LRA) have recently emerged. A plan to assemble a 5,000 troop task force comprising four countries including Uganda met with praise in mid-2012. However, it has now emerged that the task force has not yet begun its work, and that the contributors have not even agreed on a strategy. Meanwhile, Kony remains at large somewhere in Central Africa.
- President Museveni was due in Moscow for talks with President Putin in December. Despite growing resentment in Uganda over heavy spending on military equipment and regional missions, Museveni was expected to discuss further big-ticket procurements, including attack helicopters and additional Sukhoi Su-30 fighter jets to add to the six already acquired from Russia for around US$720mn - a capability that critics of Museveni say that Uganda does not need and cannot afford.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Uganda Security SWOT 7
Uganda Defence Industry SWOT 7
Uganda Political SWOT 8
Uganda Economic SWOT 9
Uganda Business Environment SWOT 10
Global Political Outlook 11
East and Central Africa Security Overview 16
Strategic Outlook for 2010s 16
Population Explosion: 16
Food Security: 17
Ethiopia And Eritrea: 18
Kenya: 19
Sudan And South Sudan: 20
Somalia: 21
Tanzania: 21
Uganda: 22
Security Risk Analysis 23
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence & Security Ratings 23
Table: Middle East And Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 24
Political Overview 25
Domestic Politics 25
Long-Term Political Outlook 26
Security Overview 30
Internal Security Situation 30
The Karamojong 30
The Allied Democratic Forces 31
The Lord's Resistance Army 33
2011 Presidential Election 36
Political Unrest 36
Anti-Homosexual Violence 38
New Threats 39
Terrorism 39
External Security Situation 41
Sudan 41
Côte d'Ivoire 42
Central African Republic 43
United States 44
Kenya 44
Armed Forces And Government Spending 46
Armed Forces 46
International Deployments 50
Latest Developments 51
Market Overview 53
Arms Trade Overview 55
Procurement Trends And Developments 56
Industry Forecast Scenario 58
Armed Forces 58
Table: Uganda's Armed Forces, 2002-2007 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 58
Table: Uganda's Manpower Available For Military Service, 2010-2017 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 58
Government Expenditure 58
Table: Uganda's Defence Expenditure, 2010-2017 59
Table: Uganda's Defence Expenditure, 2010-2017 60
Defence Trade 61
Table: Uganda's Defence Imports, 2010-2017 (US$mn, unless otherwise stated) 61
Debt Relief Initiatives 61
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario 62
Macroeconomic Forecast 63
Table: Uganda - Economic Activity, 2009-2016 65
BMI Methodology 66
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 66
Defence Industry 66
Sources 67
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