Uganda Telecommunications Report Q1 2013
Business Monitor International, January 2013, Pages: 88
BMI View:
We retain our positive growth outlook for the Ugandan telecoms market in view of the relatively low penetration rates of voice and data services. However, ARPU erosion due to low income levels,
especially outside the major cities, is a major disincentive for network upgrade and expansion projects needed to drive growth.
Key Data
- The mobile market grew by 3.8% in Q312, faster than average quarterly growth of 2.2% in H112.
- Mobile ARPU remained below US$4 in Q312 despite an uptick in mobile data subscriptions.
- The fixed-line market grew by 42.2% in 2011.
Risk/Reward Ratings
Uganda dropped four places to 19th position in BMI's Q113 RRR table due to a sharp downgrade of its Industry Rewards score. The country's rating in that category is held back by weak ARPUs, poor subscriber mix in the mobile sector and, consequently, weak financial performance by service providers. Uganda scores below the regional average in the industry rewards and country rewards categories but the average score in the industry risks and country risks categories.
Key Trends & Developments
Uganda's mobile operators are turning to advanced data services to offset revenue shortfall from traditional voice and SMS services. In November 2012, MTN revealed that it is boosting maximum data speeds for its HSPA+ network to 21.9Mbps. The operator deployed 78 new base stations for the project and plans to build an additional 300 sites to meet the rising demand for mobile data services. MTN's announcement followed the launch of a HSPA+ network by second-ranked Airtel in August 2012. The service is capable of providing transmission speeds of up to 21Mbps and is initially available in 30 cities and towns. Airtel launched its HSPA+ network on 325 base stations, although it plans to increase the number to more than 400. Uganda has experienced a brutal price war during the last two years, which led to a steady decline of ARPUs from around US$6 at the start of 2010 to less than US$4 in Q312.
BMI Industry View 7
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 8
Mobile SWOT 8
Fixed-Line 10
Economic 12
Political 14
Business Environment 15
Risk Reward Ratings 16
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 16
Industry Rewards 16
Country Risks 18
Country Rewards And Industry Risks 18
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Telecoms Risk/Rewards Rating, Q113 19
Uganda 20
Industry Forecast 22
Mobile 22
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 22
ARPU 25
Table: Telecoms Sector - ARPU - Historical Data & Forecast (UGX), 2010-2017 25
Fixed Line 27
Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line - Historical Data & Forecast, 2010-2017 27
Internet 29
Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecast, 2010-2017 29
Market Data Analysis 31
Mobile 31
Regional Perspective 31
Table: Uganda Mobile Market Regional Comparisons, 2011 31
Key Developments 32
Mobile Growth 32
Market Shares 33
Usage 34
Mobile Content 35
Table: Recent VAS Developments 39
Mobile Market Overview 40
Table: Uganda Mobile Market Overview 40
Table: Airtel 40
Table: MTN 41
Table: UTL 41
Table: Warid 42
Telecoms - Mobile VAS In Africa 42
Indigenous VAS Take Centre Stage 43
Global Content Providers Adapt To Gain Relevance 44
Telecoms Crossovers Still In Play 45
Outlook Is Positive But Not Without Risk 46
Fixed Line 47
Broadband 49
Market Growth 51
WiMAX 52
Mobile Broadband 53
Satellite 53
Optical Fibre Backbones 54
Table: Fibre-Optic Cable Coverage, May 2011 55
Table: Selected Wireline Developments 57
Industry Trends And Developments 59
Industry Trends And Developments 59
Table: Wireless Developments 62
Regulatory Development 64
Regulatory Development 64
Table: Uganda Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities 64
Competitive Landscape 68
Competitive Landscape 68
Table: Key Players: Uganda Telecoms Sector 68
Company Profile 69
Uganda Telecom (UTL) 69
MTN Uganda 72
Regional Overview 75
Regional Vendor Profile - RIM Bets On Africa 75
Recent Financial Performance 75
Investor Confidence Takes A Hit 75
Africa Beckons 76
Opportunities And Risks 76
Demographic Forecast 78
Demographic Forecast 78
Table: Uganda's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 79
Table: Export this table as seen 80
Table: Uganda's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 80
Table: Export this table as seen 81
Table: Uganda's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 81
Table: Export this table as seen 81
Table: Uganda's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 82
Table: Export this table as seen 82
Glossary 83
Glossary 83
Table: Glossary Of Terms 83
Methodology 85
Methodology 85
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts 85
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings 86
Table: Ratings Indicators 87
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 88
Company Profile
Uganda Telecom (UTL)
MTN Uganda
Regional Overview
Regional Vendor Profile - RIM Bets On Africa
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