Belgium Oil and Gas Report Q1 2013
- ID: 2373285
- January 2013
- Region: Belgium
- 74 pages
- Business Monitor International
Subdued oil demand growth means the prospects for refiners and fuels distributors are poor,
with many already facing strong competition. The purchase and reopening of Petroplus' Antwerp plant should reduce downstream uncertainty. The gas market has greater potential, both in terms of rising domestic demand and the scope to re-sell surplus LNG through regional pipeline links. The market is mature, meaning there is a risk that leading industry players may divest as they seek higher growth and wider margins elsewhere.
The main trends and developments in Belgium's oil & gas sector are:
- Total announced plans in September 2012 to invest US$1.3bn in its Antwerp refinery to increase diesel production capacity. The refinery would not see a cut in its 350,000b/d output, but would produce less heavy fuel in a move that Total says could result a US$500mn boost to its refining and petrochemical earnings.
- Petroplus, Europe's largest independent refiner, announced in January 2012 that it had shut down its 107,500 barrels per day (b/d) Antwerp refinery, along with others in Europe, after a syndicate comprising 13 banks froze a US$1bn credit facility the company was using to buy crude feedstock. In May 2012, Gunvor Group said that it had successfully completed the purchase of the Antwerp refinery, along with the remaining inventory of stock located at the plant. Cyprus-registered Gunvor is one of the world's largest oil traders and exports about 30
%of Russia's crude oil.
- With nuclear generation capacity to remain stagnant over the next few years, before reactors are dismantled under the proposed phase-out, new electricity generating capacity is likely to be largely gas-fired, with an emphasis on renewables. We forecast that Belgian gas demand will rise from an estimated 19.0bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2012 to 20.2bcm by 2016 and 22.1bcm by 2021 - all met by increased pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports.
- Gas could flow in both directions between France and Belgium by 2015 after the countries'
energy regulators approved a new interconnection point at the Belgium border town of Veurne.
The Veurne interconnector would connect non-odourised gas coming from France with the Belgian grid, according to project documents seen by energy data provider Platts. The interconnector would allow 8.4bcm-11.3bcm to be exported from France to Belgium each year.
The French Commission de régulation de l'énergie (CRE) expects it to come online in late 2014 or early 2015.
- Belgium imported a net 6.57bcm of gas in the form of LNG in 2011, with Qatar the dominant supplier. We expect volumes to move higher in line with rising gas consumption, although nearBelgium term progress is likely to be slow. Belgium is expected to import 7.0bcm per annum of LNG by 2016 and 10.0bcm by the end of our 10-year forecast period in 2021.
- Similar to most of developed Europe, Belgium is registering slow growth in oil consumption. By 2016, we project demand rising to 672,000b/d, which will result in imports of 660,000b/d. By 2021, we expect this to reach 694,000b/d, with the country requiring imports of 683,000b/d. The cost of crude imports will be an estimated US$24.88bn in 2012, easing to US$22.48bn by 2016.
The cost of gas purchases is put at US$10.18bn for 2012 and should be US$9.38bn in 2016.
Combined oil and gas costs are forecast at US$31.86bn for 2016.
At the time of writing we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$107.10/bbl, falling to US$99.10/bbl in 2013. SHOW LESS READ MORE >
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Belgium Oil and Gas SWOT 7
Industry Forecast Scenario 8
Table: Belgium Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2010-2016 8
Table: Belgium Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2015-2021 9
Oil and Gas Reserves 10
Table: Belgium Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2010-2016 10
Table: Belgium Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2015-2021 11
Oil Supply And Demand 12
Table: Belgium Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2010-2016 12
Table: Belgium Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2015-2021 14
Refining and Oil Products Trade 17
Table: Belgium Refining - Production and Consumption, 2010-2016 17
Table: Belgium Refining - Production and Consumption, 2015-2021 17
Revenues/Import Costs 18
Key Risks to BMI's Forecast Scenario 18
Country Risk/Reward Ratings 19
Belgium Upstream Rating - Overview 19
Belgium Downstream Rating - Overview 19
Regional Risk/Reward Ratings 20
Table: Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings 21
Table: Oil & Gas Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings 22
Table: Developed States Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings 24
Belgium Energy Market Overview 26
Overview/State Role 27
Licensing and Regulation 27
Government Policy 27
International Energy Relations 28
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 29
Oil Refineries 29
Table: Refineries In Belgium 29
Service Stations 29
Oil Storage Facilities 29
Oil Terminals/Ports 30
Oil Pipelines 30
LNG Terminals 30
Gas Storage Facilities 30
Gas Pipelines 31
Competitive Landscape 32
Executive Summary 32
Table: Key Players - Belgian Oil & Gas Sector 34
Table: Key Downstream Players 34
Company Profiles 35
ENI Gas & Power/Distrigas 41
GDF Suez 43
Regional Energy Market Outlook 45
Global Energy Market Outlook 52
Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts - A Comparison 54
Western Europe - Regional Appendix 58
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) 58
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 58
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) 59
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 59
Table: Refinery Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) 60
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 60
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 61
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 62
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 62
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 63
Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 63
Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 64
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 65
Glossary Of Terms 66
Table: Glossary Of Terms 66
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 68
Ratings Overview 68
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings - Structure 69
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings - Methodology 69
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings - Methodology 70
BMI Methodology 72
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 72
Energy Industry 72
Cross checks 73