China Defence and Security Report Q1 2013
Business Monitor International, January 2013, Pages: 94
The China Defence and Security Report examines the country's strategic position in Asia and the wider world. It provides an overview of the contemporary geopolitical challenges facing the country, and the challenges it may face in the future.
The report examines the trends occurring in the country's current and future defence procurement, and the order of battle across its armed forces. The intention is to provide a clear and concise discussion of these issues. The report's general conclusion is that China remains firmly on its long-established course of military modernisation, in spite of the friction that this modernisation path is causing.
Domestically, China faces some uncertainty as a new generation of top leaders begins to take over in November, and as the country faces up to the 'normalisation' of its economic growth rate. The security implications of these changes cannot be foreseen.
Regionally, territorial disputes continue to hamper China's relations with its neighbours. Beijing's relationship with Japan hit a recent low in Q3 as the dispute over the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands flared up,
leading to mass anti-Japanese protests across China. These undoubtedly took place with the Chinese government's tacit approval. However, they may have damaged China's commercial ties with Japan, and may also have emboldened hawkish politicians in Tokyo. Indeed, former prime minister Shinzo Abe now appears likely to regain the premiership in 2013, and he promises to take a much tougher line on China than the current administration.
Disputes with other countries in the region, notably the Philippines, cooled somewhat in Q3, though there is the impression that sufficient damage has already been done to China's image in Southeast Asia.
Despite having hoped to reduce the US's influence in the region by reassuring its neighbours that China's intentions were benign, the US military's role in the Asia-Pacific is growing stronger than ever, willingly assisted by Australia, the Philippines, Singapore, Vietnam and others.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- China introduced a range of new military capabilities in Q3. These included the commissioning of its first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning; the launching of the PLA Navy's first Type 052D destroyer; the unveiling of a new type of stealth fighter, the J-21; the emergence of a ship-based land attack cruise missile; and the test-firing of a new type of nuclear-capable ICBM equipped with multiple warheads.
- The implications of China's territorial disputes with Japan, South Korea and various Southeast Asian countries are discussed in detail.
- General Liang Guanglie became China's first defence minister in nearly a decade to visit India in September, as China seeks to improve its relations with its neighbour.
- US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta offered Beijing an olive branch on his visit there in September by inviting China to take part in the US' next RIMPAC exercise in 2014. However,
the unveiling of China's second stealth fighter immediately before his visit called into question China's attitude to confidence building.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
China Security SWOT 7
China Defence Industry SWOT 9
China Political SWOT 10
China Economic SWOT 11
China Business Environment SWOT 11
Global Political Outlook 12
North East Asia Security Overview 15
North East Asia: The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s 15
The Geopolitical Importance Of North East Asia 15
Flashpoints And Faultlines In North East Asia 16
The China-North Korea Border 19
The Taiwan Strait 20
Disputed Islands 21
The Russia-China Border 23
China's Western Periphery 23
The Evolution Of North East Asia 24
Security Risk Analysis 28
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings 28
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 29
China's Security Risk Rating 29
Political Overview 31
Domestic Politics 31
Foreign Relations 33
China Security Overview 36
Internal Security Situation 36
China-Tibet Relations 37
External Security Situation 37
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation 39
China-US Relations 40
China-Japan Relations 43
China-Taiwan Relations 46
China-Korea Relations 47
China-Russia Relations 48
China-India Relations 49
China-ASEAN Relations 51
EU Arms Embargo 52
China's Aircraft Carrier Programme: Global Implications 53
Armed Forces And Government Spending 58
Joint Operations And Exercises 61
International Deployments 62
Table: China's Deployments 62
Peace Missions 62
Weapons Of Mass Destruction 62
Recent Changes 67
Arms Trade Overview 68
Industry Trends And Developments 71
Procurement Trends And Developments 72
Competitive Landscape 73
Table: Key Players In China's Defence Sector 74
Industry Forecast Scenario 76
Armed Forces 76
Table: China's Armed Forces, 2002-2009 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 76
Table: China's Manpower Available For Military Service, 2010-2017 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 76
Defence Expenditure 77
Table: China's Defence Expenditure, 2010-2017 77
Table: Defence Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of GDP (US$mn) 78
Defence Trade 78
Table: China's Defence Exports, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 79
Table: China's Defence Imports, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 79
Table: China's Defence Trade Balance, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 80
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario 80
Macroeconomic Outlook 80
Company Profiles 85
Chengdu Aircraft Company 85
China Aviation Industry Corporation 86
China National Nuclear Corporation 88
China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation 89
China South Industries Group Corporation (CSG) 91
BMI Methodology 92
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 92
Defence Industry 92
Sources 93
Company Profiles
Chengdu Aircraft Company
China Aviation Industry Corporation
China National Nuclear Corporation
China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation
China South Industries Group Corporation (CSG)
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