Iran Metals Report Q1 2013
Business Monitor International, January 2013, Pages: 45
BMI's latest Iran metals report examines how the Iranian steel industry is able to grow amid a punitive international sanctions regime and a domestic economic crisis. It also details the latest project developments as the country seeks to increase its steel capacity from 20mn tonnes per annum (mntpa) to 55mntpa by 2025, as well as a tripling of aluminium smelter capacity to 1.5mntpa.
While a cut in external trade has impacted negatively on the steel industry, isolation has also ensured that imports have also been restricted. However, domestic industrial deficiencies in certain market segments mean that Iran will struggle to meet its own needs in spite of declining consumption. Crude steel output rose 10.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 12.05mn tonnes in the first 10 months of 2012, representing one of the strongest growth rates in the world, rivalling Turkey.
Nevertheless, due to infrastructural problems as well as a lack of billet and rebar capacity, the country is still dependent on imports to serve the market, mostly from Turkey. Meanwhile, growth in the manufacturing of steel products has slowed markedly, with existing crude steel capacities were unable to supply sufficient supply to downstream industries and therefore exacerbating the dependence on imported supplies. Weak points remain, with flats demand coming under pressure as automotive output suffers from declining domestic demand. Over the medium term, Iran will be reliant on exports at a time when it is becoming harder to sell on external markets.
Iranian trade has been affected by international sanctions, with the country having to manoeuvre strategically to meet domestic demand and maintain the robust production growth seen a few years ago.
Iranian steel production grew by 10.0% and 8.7% in 2010 and 2011, although BMI forecasts this slowing over our forecast period to 2017.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 9
Iran Business Environment SWOT 9
Industry Forecasts 10
Steel 10
Table: Iran - Steel Production Historic Data ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 13
Table: Iran - Steel Production Historic Data ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 13
Aluminium 14
Macroeconomic Outlook 15
International Sanctions Hitting Hard 15
Table: Iran - Economic Activity 17
Commodities Forecast 18
Monthly Metals Update 18
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & BMI Forecasts 30
Steel Forecast 31
Steel To Average US$360/tonne In 2013: Short-Term View 31
Table: Steel Forecast 31
Table: Steel Forecasts 37
Competitive Landscape 38
Table: Production & Sales By Producer 38
Company Profiles 42
Mobarakeh Steel Company 42
Esfahan Steel Company (ESCO) 43
BMI Methodology 44
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 44
Cross Checks 44
Company Profiles
Mobarakeh Steel Company
Esfahan Steel Company (ESCO)
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