Zambia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2013
Business Monitor International, January 2013, Pages: 41
BMI View:
The majority of investment in Zambia's healthcare market stems from international aid agencies - so the news that the government has increased its allocation for healthcare spending in the 2013 budget will be well received by both NGOs and international investors as a sign that Zambia is taking its commitment to healthcare seriously. The country suffers from a burden of both communicable and non-communicable diseases, with a high incidence of HIV and AIDs, malaria, and problems such as cholera emerging in Q412, but it is making progress. The government claims it has already met its millennium development goals for turbercolosis, and is on target to meet other healthcare goals. Risks remain, such as the presence of counterfeit and substandard drugs, and the reliance on copper export means Zambia's economy has a narrow base.
Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: ZMK951bn (US$196mn) in 2011 to ZMK1,095bn (US$207mn) in 2012;
+15.1% in local currency terms and +5.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast lowered slightly from Q412.
- Healthcare: ZMK5,347bn (US$1.10bn) in 2011 to ZMK6,290bn (US$1.19bn) in 2012; +17.6
%in local currency terms and +8.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast lowered slightly from Q412.
Risk/Reward Rating:
In Q113, Zambia remained steady at 21st best market in the MEA region in BMI's proprietary Risk/Reward Ratings (RRR) matrix with a score of 39.6.
Key Trends & Developments
- Zambia's government claimed in October 2012 that it is on target to meet its Millennium Development Goals and has raised healthcare funding by 46% in its current budget. The year 2013 will see the government spend ZMK3.46trn on healthcare, or 11% of total spending.
- A refurbished eye clinic and centre of excellence, part funded by NGO Operation Eyesight International, was opened in Lusaka in October 2012. Phase I of the project cost ZMK2.8bn, and was constructed by India's Nava Bhata Ventures; Phase II will cost ZMK15.5bn.
- The Global Fund signed an agreement with the Churches Health Association of Zambia in October 2012 to provide US$102mn to support the reduction of HIV and AIDs.
BMI Economic View:
Zambia's minister of finance presented the 2013 budget seeking to stimulate growth in sectors with relatively strong potential for generating employment.,This included a big increase in healthcare spending, from ZMK2.58trn to ZMK3.64trn. BMI believes that the economy has a strong outlook, and that the business environment will remain stable.
BMI Political View:
In the announcement of 2013's budget, the minister of finance revealed that the government will try to promote transparency by ruling that any revenue collected by government bodies must be deposited in the treasury. Such moves will go some way to reassuring potential investors that the government is serious about dealing with corruption.
BMI Industry View 5
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings 7
Table: MEA Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Risk/Reward Ratings, Q113 7
Rewards 8
Risks 9
Market Summary 10
Government Healthcare Reform 12
Regulatory Regime 17
Pharmacovigilance (PV) 20
Industry Forecast Scenario 23
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast 23
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators 2008-2016 24
Healthcare Market Forecast 25
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators, 2008-2016 27
Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators, 2008-2016 28
Table: Healthcare Private Indicators, 2008-2016 28
Key Growth Factors - Macroeconomic 29
Demographic Outlook 31
Table: Zambia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 32
Table: Zambia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 33
Table: Zambia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 34
Table: Zambia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 34
Glossary 35
BMI Methodology 37
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts 37
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 38
Ratings Overview 38
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators 39
Weighting 40
Table: Weighting Of Components 40
Sources 40
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