Poland Autos Report Q1 2013

  • ID: 2373648
  • January 2013
  • Region: Poland
  • 58 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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Over the first 10 months of 2012, passenger car sales in Poland increased 1.8% year-on-year (y-o-y), to 229,209 units. Despite strong sales growth earlier in the year, sales have decreased in recent months as weak consumer demand continues to impact sales. The ongoing deterioration in private consumption,
combined with the declining sales growth, has prompted us to revise our sales forecast to a 2% decline over the year. We believe that private consumption is likely to lag headline growth. Household spending growth decelerated gradually from 3.7% y-o-y in Q410 to 1.2% in Q212, despite strong headline GDP growth over the period. Retail sales data indicate that this slowdown continued into the third quarter, with the average monthly retail sales slowing to 5.3% y-o-y, from 12.9% in Q112. Falling export demand and weaker investment in 2012 has reduced nominal wage growth from a monthly average of 5.4% y-o-y in Q112 to 2.2% in Q312. Wage growth is likely to remain tepid even once the economy picks up in H213 given the slack in the labour market, with unemployment at 12.4% in September. This weak private consumption picture has impacted passenger car sales, and partly informed our sales READ MORE >

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Executive Summary 5

SWOT Analysis 7

Poland Autos Industry SWOT 7

Poland Political SWOT Analysis 8

Poland Economic SWOT Analysis 8

Poland Business Environment SWOT Analysis 9

Global Overview 10

UK Boosts Europe, But Favourites Still Outperform 10
Table: Passenger Car Sales 8M12 10

Incentive Boom For Japan, US Powers On 10

Regional Overview 16

Industry Risk/Reward Ratings 23

Poor Show From Western Europe Hurts Region's Score In BMI Ratings 23
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings For Autos In Europe 26

Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario 28
Table: Poland - Economic Activity, 2011-2016 30

Industry Forecast Scenario 31

Sales 31
Table: Auto Sales, 2010-2017 31

Production 33
Table: Auto Production, 2010-2017 33

Trade 35
Table: Auto Trade, 2010-2017 35

Passenger Cars - Forecasts & Analysis 37
Table: Passenger Cars, 2010-2017 37
Table: Passenger car sales by brand 38

Segment News 39

Commercial Vehicles - Forecasts & Analysis 40
Table: Auto Sales, 2010-2017 40
Table: LCV sales by brand 41
Table: Heavy truck sales by brand 42
Table: Bus and coach sales by brand 43

Motorcycles - Forecasts & Analysis 44
Table: Motorcycles, 2010-2017 44
Table: Motorcycle sales by brand 45

Segment News 47

Suppliers 48

Company Monitor 49

Company Profiles 51

Fiat 51

Demographic Outlook 52
Table: Poland's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 53
Table: Poland's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 54
Table: Poland's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 55
Table: Poland's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 55

BMI Methodology 56

How We Generate Our Forecasting Model 56

Sources 57

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