Chile Oil and Gas Report Q1 2013
Business Monitor International, January 2013, Pages: 80
BMI View:
Chile's small resource base makes the country heavily dependent upon imports to satisfy demand and promote economic growth. Indeed, Chile in 2011 had to import 97% of total oil needs and 66% of its natural gas requirement. These issues will persist in spite of some long-term upside potential stemming from the country's shale gas prospects. In the meantime, imported liquefied natural gas (LNG)
will play a greater role in energy security.
The key trends and developments in the Chilean oil & gas sector are:
- In terms of domestic production, we forecast both oil and gas to rise moderately in the coming years, with oil production increasing at an average of 1.8% through to 2021 and natural gas increasing at an average rate of 1.05% through to 2015 and then to decline thereafter. At the same time, Chilean consumption of oil and natural gas will steadily increase, adding additional pressure on the government and state-owned Empresa Nacional del Petróleo (ENAP) to increase imports. Indeed, due to the country's small resource base, Chile in 2011 had to import 97% of total oil needs and 66% of its natural gas requirement.
- Today, two LNG import terminals service different regions of the country. The Quintero regasification terminal provides natural gas to the majority of the country's population, while the Mejillones terminal is well positioned to service the lucrative Chilean copper mines in the north.
Due to the energy intensity of the copper industry, there is significant interest in expanding the capacity at Mejillones up from its current annual capacity of 2.0bn cubic metres (bcm).
- Chilean power generators Colbun and AES Gener have selected Bermuda-registered Hoegh LNG to install a new floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) in Chile. The term of the contract is 10 years, with an optional extension of five years. The FSRU, which will be situated in Quintero Bay, will supply AES Gener's power plants in the country with natural gas. The scheduled start-up of the project is late-2014. The transaction is subject to completion of final documentation and board approval from both parties.
- In terms of consumption, we forecast that oil use will rise from an estimated 332,400 barrels per day (b/d) in 2012 to 345,700b/d by 2016. It will continue to increase steadily at an average rate of 1.8% through to 2021. If Chile is to boost oil production, its best hope lies in exploration taking place in the Magallanes region in the south of the country. We are also forecasting gas consumption rising from an estimated 6.1bcm in 2012 to 9.8bcm by 2021.
The advent of technology capable of extracting oil and gas from shale formations has given Chile reason for optimism over the long term. Although still very preliminary, the EIA estimates that Chile's oil and gas producing Magallanes region may also contain 1,812.5bcm of technically recoverable shale gas resources. Should even half of these estimated resources become economically recoverable, the amount of gas produced would be sufficient to meet a 7.9bcm/year consumption rate for approximately 115 years.
Although we have not taken shale gas production into account in our forecasts, it remains a significant upside risk in the long term. Indeed, the Chilean copper mining industry has already expressed interest in utilising shale gas to power production.
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Chile Oil and Gas SWOT 7
Industry Forecast Scenario 8
Oil And Gas Reserves 8
Table: Chile Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2010-2016 8
Table: Chile Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2015-2021 9
Oil Supply And Demand 12
Table: Chile Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2010-2016 12
Table: Chile Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2015-2021 13
Gas Supply And Demand 14
Table: Chile Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2010-2016 14
Table: Chile Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2015-2021 16
Liquefied Natural Gas 18
Refining And Oil Products Trade 19
Revenues/Import Costs 19
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario 20
Country Risk/Reward Ratings 21
Chile Upstream Rating - Rewards 21
Chile Upstream Rating - Risks 21
Chile Downstream Rating - Overview 21
Regional Risk/Reward Rating 22
Table: Latin American Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings 23
Table: Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings 25
Table: Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings 27
Chile Energy Market Overview 28
Overview/State Role 29
Licensing And Regulation 29
Government Policy 29
Licensing Rounds 29
Second International Magallanes Tender 29
First International Magallanes Tender 30
International Energy Relations 30
Argentina 30
Trinidad & Tobago 30
Oil & Gas Infrastructure 31
Oil Refineries 31
Table: Refineries In Chile 31
Service Stations 32
Gas Pipelines 32
LNG Terminals 32
Table: LNG Terminals In Chile 33
Competitive Landscape 34
Executive Summary 34
Table: Chile - Key Players 35
Table: Chile - Key Upstream Players 35
Table: Key Downstream Players 36
Company Profiles 37
ENAP - Empresa Nacional del Petróleo 37
Copec (Compañía de Petróleos de Chile) 40
Shell Chile 42
Petrobras Chile 44
Repsol 46
GeoPark Holdings 48
Wintershall - Summary 50
ExxonMobil Cono Sur - Summary 51
Pan American Energy - Summary 51
GDF Suez - Summary 51
Methanex - Summary 51
Enagas/BG Group 52
Regional Energy Market Outlook 53
Global Energy Market Outlook 58
Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts - A Comparison 60
Latin America - Regional Appendix 64
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) 64
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 64
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) 65
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 65
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) 66
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 67
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 67
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 68
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 68
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 69
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 69
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 70
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 71
Glossary Of Terms 72
Table: Glossary Of Terms 72
Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 74
Ratings Overview 74
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings - Structure 75
Indicators 75
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings - Methodology 75
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings - Methodology 76
BMI Methodology 78
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 78
Energy Industry 78
Cross checks 79
Sources 79
Company Profiles
ENAP - Empresa Nacional del Petróleo
Copec (Compañía de Petróleos de Chile)
Shell Chile
Petrobras Chile
Repsol
GeoPark Holdings
Wintershall - Summary
ExxonMobil Cono Sur - Summary
Pan American Energy - Summary
GDF Suez - Summary
Methanex - Summary
Enagas/BG Group
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