France Metals Report Q1 2013
- ID: 2373664
- January 2013
- Region: France
- 51 pages
- Business Monitor International
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following views and forecasts:
- While France has been one of Europe's better performing steel-producing nations, output was still 20% below typical pre-2008 levels in 2012 and BMI estimates that utilisation levels are averaging 70-75%. Cuts in crude steel-making capacity are therefore inevitable in order to ensure the long-term stability of both the French and EU steel industries.
- With the steel industry facing output cuts, an economy set to grow by just 0.9% in 2013 and crude steel consumption set to fall 1.8% to 16.03mnt, BMI forecasts just 0.1% growth in crude steel output to 15.87mnt. This is a downward revision from the 16.18mnt previously forecast and BMI warns of considerable downside risk.
- The French steel industry will undergo the same process of 'delocalisation' as other industrial sectors that the government will be largely powerless to stop. By 2017, crude production and consumption should reach 17.5mnt and 17.1mnt, respectively, which is still well down on prerecession levels.
- Cuts in aluminium production mean that we have estimated a 3% decline in primary aluminium output to 429,000 tonnes in 2012, which offsets the growth reported over the previous two years.
Modest 0.2% growth is expected in 2013 as the industry remains under pressure due to poor market performance.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
France Business Environment SWOT 6
Europe Metals Overview 7
Industry Forecast Scenario 13
Table: France - Steel Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 14
Table: France Steel Industry Historical Data ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 15
Table: France - Primary Aluminium Consumption & Production ('000 tonnes unless stated otherwise) 16
Macroeconomic Forecast 16
Losing Pace Without Household Consumption 16
Table: France - Economic Activity 19
Commodities Forecast 20
Monthly Metals Update 20
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & BMI Forecasts 32
Steel Forecast 33
Steel To Average US$360/tonne In 2013: Short-Term View 33
Table: Steel Forecast 33
Table: Steel Forecasts 39
Competitive Landscape 40
Table: Metals Industry - Key Facilities 40
Company Profiles 42
Rio Tinto 42
Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data 45
Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data 49
BMI Methodology 50
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 50
Cross Checks 50