Ghana Oil and Gas Report Q1 2013
Business Monitor International, January 2013, Pages: 77
BMI View:
Despite output problems, the outlook for Ghana's nascent status as an oil producer is bright,
with further development at the Jubilee field and anticipated first oil from the T.E.N. project underlying our forecast for output to grow at an average rate of 60% over the course of our forecast period to 2021.
The development of infrastructure to commercialise associated gas for domestic power generation will see both production and consumption of gas grown in Ghana. Continued upstream success with both gas and oil discoveries presents upside risk to our forecasts, however we highlight project delays and technical challenges as developments that could cause as to alter our forecast to the downside.
The main trends and developments we highlight for Ghana's oil and gas sector are:
- After troubled start-up, output from the Tullow Oil-operated Jubilee field should reach previously targeted 120,000b/d figure by 2013, although for 2012 we expect production to average 77,000b/d.
- Ghana's reserves are likely to continue to grow at a rapid rate as the appraisal of the Greater Tweneboa, Southeastern Jubilee and West Cape Three Points prospects continues, The Oil &
Gas Journal (OGJ) annual reserves and production survey attributes 660mn barrels (bbl) of proven oil reserves to the country. BMI estimates that resource base will grow to 730mn bbl by 2016
- Although we forecast rapid gains in oil consumption as economic growth drives demand, we expect demand in 2012 to be particularly bullish on the back of vandalism to the West Africa Gas Pipeline (WAGP) which has been offline since August 28 2012. The supply disruption has required Ghana to import some 50,000b/d as feedstock for power generation, causing us to raise our forecast for oil consumption. WAGP operators have expressed confidence that pipeline will resume operations before 2013.
- Limited refinery capacity will required continued increased in refined production in the near term; however, we continue to expect capacity to rise to as much as 245,000b/d over the long term an new facilities come online toward 2018.
- We expect net oil exports to grow from approximately at an average rate of nearly 3% from 2012 to reach 113,000b/d by 2021, generating significant revenues for the local economy.
- Upstream exploration, with strong successful results reported by both Tullow and Eni in drilling campaigns, suggest upside potential for gas reserves and production, which we forecast will rise from 1.0bcm in 2013 to 3.8bcm by 2021
- Ghana's ability to process gas will grow with a US$3bn loan from the China Development Bank supporting new midstream gas infrastructure capacity and facilitating a gradual increase in gas production over the coming years as domestic demand from power generation gathers pace.
- Although domestically produced gas is currently reserved for the local market, interest on the part of international oil companies (IOCs) remains in the development of a potential LNG export project.
We forecast an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$107.05/bbl, which we see falling to US$99.10/bbl in 2013. Global GDP in 2012 is forecast at 2.6%, down from an estimated 3.0% in 2011, reflecting slowing growth in China, a faltering recovery in the US and a worsening eurozone debt crisis.
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Ghana Oil and Gas SWOT 7
Industry Forecast Scenario 8
Oil And Gas Reserves 8
Table: Ghana Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2010-2016 8
Table: Ghana Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2015-2021 9
Oil Supply And Demand 12
Table: Ghana Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2010-2016 12
Table: Ghana Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2015-2021 13
Gas Supply And Demand 15
Table: Ghana Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2010-2016 15
Table: Ghana Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2015-2021 16
LNG 19
Refining And Oil Products Trade 20
Table: Ghana Refining - Production and Consumption, 2010-2016 20
Table: Ghana Refining - Production and Consumption, 2015-2021 20
Revenues/Import Costs 21
Country Risk/Reward Ratings 22
Ghana Upstream Rating - Overview 22
Ghana Downstream Rating - Overview 22
Regional Risk/Reward Ratings 23
Table: Africa's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings 24
Table: Africa's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings 25
Table: Proposed And Planned Refineries In Africa 29
Table: Africa's Downstream Risk/Reward Scores 30
Ghana Energy Market Overview 31
Overview/State Role 31
Licensing and Regulation 32
Licensing Rounds 33
Table: Ghana - Upstream Projects Database 33
Table: Key Upstream Players 33
Table: Key Downstream Player 34
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 35
Oil Refineries 35
Table: Downstream Projects 35
Service Stations 35
Oil Terminals/Ports 36
Gas Pipelines 36
Competitive Landscape 38
Executive Summary 38
Table: Key Players - Ghana Energy Sector 39
Table: Key Upstream Players 40
Table: Key Downstream Player 40
Company Monitor 41
Tullow Oil 41
Kosmos Energy 45
Lukoil - Summary 46
Eni - Summary 47
Hess - Summary 48
Statoil - Summary 48
Anadarko - Summary 49
Tap Oil - Summary 49
PetroSA - Summary 49
Regional Energy Market Outlook 50
Global Energy Market Outlook 55
Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts - A Comparison 57
Africa - Regional Appendix 61
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) 61
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 61
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) 62
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 63
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) 63
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 64
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 64
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 65
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 66
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 66
LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 67
LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 67
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 68
Glossary Of Terms 69
Table: Glossary Of Terms 69
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 71
Ratings Overview 71
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings - Structure 72
Indicators 72
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings - Methodology 72
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings - Methodology 73
BMI Methodology 75
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 75
Energy Industry 75
Cross checks 76
Sources 76
Company Monitor
Tullow Oil
Kosmos Energy
Lukoil - Summary
Eni - Summary
Hess - Summary
Statoil - Summary
Anadarko - Summary
Tap Oil - Summary
PetroSA - Summary
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