Jordan Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2013
Business Monitor International, January 2013, Pages: 112
BMI View:
We expect that Jordan will continue to provide modest opportunities to research-based pharmaceutical manufacturers. In line with the authorities' efforts to expand healthcare insurance coverage, we envisage measures aiming to promote the use of cheaper generic medicines, in tandem with price-reduction strategies. Nevertheless, the expansion of government provision and the higher uptake of generic medicines will conspire to keep longer term growth steady, boosted by upward volume changes,
with the patented drug market to continue to be supported by rising numbers of medical tourists.
Headline Expenditure Projections:
- Pharmaceuticals: JOD463mn (US$653mn) in 2011 to JOD501mn (US$707mn) in 2012; +8.1
%in local currency terms and +8.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q412.
- Healthcare: JOD1.73bn (US$2.45bn) in 2011 to JOD1.87bn (US$2.65bn) in 2012; +8.0% in local currency terms and +8.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q412.
- Medical devices: JOD112mn (US$158mn) in 2011 to JOD121mn (US$171mn) in 2012; +8.3
%in local currency terms and +8.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q412.
Risk/Reward Rating:
Jordan's composite Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings score for Q113 remains unchanged in relation to the previous quarter. At 49.9 out of the maximum 100, Jordan is again ranked 10th, out of the 30 markets surveyed in the Middle East and Africa region. Jordan's rewards and risk scores remain evenly balanced, with both components standing firmly above the regional averages.
Key Trends And Developments:
- In July 2012, Hayel Obeidat, director general of the Jordanian Food and Drug Administration
(FDA), said that the prices of 275 locally and internationally produced drugs had been reduced.
The medicines affected by the changes include painkillers and treatments for chronic diseases and cancer. Any company or drugstore found guilty of not reducing drug prices in line with this policy will be penalised, Obeidat added. Fines totalling over JOD1mn (US$1.4mn) have already been collected from firms that rejected the immediate price reduction. The JFDA is now reviewing the reduction of prices for an additional 25 drugs.
- The number of foreign patients visiting Jordan for medical treatment increased by 7% year-onyear
(y-o-y) in H112. Although medical tourism in Jordan has emerged as the most robust healthcare sector in the entire Middle East, Private Hospitals Association (PHA) President Fawzi Hammouri was quoted by Jordan Times as saying that the sector still needs to overcome certain challenges to achieve further growth in terms of patient numbers and revenues. He identified Jordanian visa regulations and continuing brain drain to be the major barriers for medical tourism to attain its maximum potential.
BMI Economic View:
Economic growth in Jordan will remain sluggish over the coming years. Weak foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, a flagging tourism sector and high commodity prices will drag on the economy in the near term, while policymakers have few fiscal or monetary levers at their disposal to manufacture any turnaround in the country's fortunes. We forecast real GDP growth to fall to 1.8% this year, from 2.6% in 2011, with the country suffering from the detrimental effect that the Arab Spring (and in particular the ongoing conflict in Syria) has had on both foreign investment and the tourism industry.
BMI Political View:
The October 2012 decision by King Abdullah to dissolve the current progovernment parliament was widely expected, but is unlikely to lead to any improvement in the country's political situation. With the opposition all but certain to boycott the elections, which are expected by early 2013 at the latest, we expect the next parliament to look remarkably similar. This undermines the credibility of the King's move, and denies him a much-needed opportunity to rally popular support behind his fiscal consolidation efforts, potentially placing them in jeopardy.
Executive Summary 6
SWOT Analysis 8
Jordan Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT 8
Jordan Political SWOT 9
Jordan Economic SWOT 10
Jordan Business Environment SWOT 10
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings 11
Table: Middle East And Africa Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings, Q113 11
Rewards 13
Risks 13
Jordan - Market Summary 15
Regulatory Regime 16
Regulatory Developments 17
Intellectual Property Regime 18
IP Concerns 19
Counterfeit Pharmaceuticals 20
Pricing And Reimbursement Regime 21
Pricing And Reimbursement Developments 22
Public Sector Procurement Of Medicines 23
International Collaboration 23
Industry Trends And Developments 25
Epidemiology 25
Table: Primary Health Centre Visits by Condition, 2004-2010 26
Non-Communicable Diseases 26
Table: Diabetes Care Costs In 10 Middle Eastern Countries With Highest Prevalence 28
Communicable Diseases 28
Table: HIV/AIDS Patients, 1986-2010 29
Table: Notifiable Communicable Diseases & Conditions, 2002-2010 29
Healthcare Sector 30
Healthcare Provision 32
Table: MoH Health Centres, 2004-2010 32
Table: Physicians by Sector, 2005-2010 33
Secondary Care 33
Table: Hospitals by Sector, 2001-2010 34
Recent Healthcare Sector Developments 35
Healthcare Funding 36
Table: MoH Budget, 1995-2010 (JOD '000s) 37
Healthcare Insurance 37
Medical Tourism 39
Research And Development Sector 43
Biotechnology 44
Clinical Trials 45
Medical Devices 46
Industry Forecast Scenario 48
Overall Market Forecast 48
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, 2008-2016 49
Healthcare Market Forecast 50
Table: Overall Healthcare Expenditure, 2008-2016 51
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure, 2008-2016 52
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure, 2008-2016 52
Key Growth Factors - Macroeconomic 53
Table: Jordan - Economic Activity 58
Prescription Drug Market Forecast 59
Table: Prescription Drug Sales, 2008-2016 60
Patented Drug Market Forecast 61
Table: Patented Drug Sales, 2008-2016 62
Generic Drug Market Forecast 63
Table: Generic Drug Sales, 2008-2016 64
OTC Medicine Market Forecast 65
Table: OTC Medicine Sales, 2008-2016 66
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast 67
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade, 2008-2016 70
Medical Device Market Forecast 71
Table: Medical Device Sales, 2008-2016 72
Other Healthcare Data Forecasts 73
Key Risks To BMI's Forecasts 74
Competitive Landscape 75
Pharmaceutical Industry 75
Domestic Pharmaceuticals Sector 76
Foreign Companies 76
Pharmaceutical Wholesale Sector 77
Retail Pharmacy Sector 78
Table: Pharmacists by Sector, 2010 79
Company Profiles 80
Local Companies 80
Pharma International Company 80
Arab Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Company (Hikma) 82
Dar al-Dawa 84
Hikma Pharmaceuticals 87
Jordanian Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Company (JPM) 92
United Pharmaceutical Manufacturers 94
Multinational Companies 96
Pfizer 96
GlaxoSmithKline 97
Novartis 99
Sanofi 00
Merck & Co 01
Demographic Data 102
Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 03
Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 04
Table: Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 05
Table: Rural/Urban Population Split, 1990-2020 05
Glossary 106
BMI Methodology 108
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts 08
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 09
Ratings Overview 09
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Indicators 10
Weighting 11
Table: Weighting Of Components 11
Sources 11
Company Profiles
Local Companies
Pharma International Company
Arab Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Company (Hikma)
Dar al-Dawa
Hikma Pharmaceuticals
Jordanian Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Company (JPM)
United Pharmaceutical Manufacturers
Multinational Companies
Pfizer
GlaxoSmithKline
Novartis
Sanofi
Merck & Co
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