Lithuania Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2013
Business Monitor International, January 2013, Pages: 96
BMI View:
We continue to hold our subdued outlook for the Lithuanian pharmaceuticals market during the next few years, on account of the changing economic and demographic situation. We expect limited low single digit growth in 2012, with the market expected to increase by a local currency margin of 2.5
%year-on-year (y-o-y) to reach LTL1.68bn (US$618mn) in 2012 at consumer prices. However, in US dollar terms, the market's value will shrink by 6.3%, indicating the challenges facing companies operating in the market.
Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: LTL1.64bn (US$659mn) in 2011 to LTL1.68bn (US$618mn) in 2012; +2.5
%in local currency terms and -6.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast slightly up from Q412 on account of new macroeconomic data.
- Healthcare: LTL6.99bn (US$2.81bn) in 2011 to LTL7.29bn (US$2.68bn) in 2012; +4.3% in local currency terms and -4.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast slightly up from Q412 on account of new macroeconomic data.
- Medical devices: LTL679mn (US$273mn) in 2011 to LTL749mn (US$276mn) in 2012;
+10.3% in local currency terms and +0.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast slightly up from Q412 on account of new macroeconomic data.
Risk/Reward Rating
In our Q113 Pharmaceuticals Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) matrix, Lithuania is 15th, out of the 20 markets surveyed in Emerging Europe, below its Baltic peers. Although Lithuania boasts a largely risk-free operating environment, its muted rewards prospects will continue to impact its standing in the regional matrix. Globally, Lithuania ranks 60th out of 95 markets surveyed.
Key Trends and Developments
o In October 2012, Seimas of the Homeland Union-Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS-LKD)
faction George Razma appealed the government to reconsider additional funding of LTL60.0mn
(US$22.7mn) for healthcare institutions in the country. Lithuanian patients have to pay extra for medical services that should be available for free, Razma said. The additional funds are expected to partially solve the issue of lack of funding for treatment services. Razma asked the government to evaluate the proposal after considering the difficult situation of Lithuania's hospital system.
BMI Economic View: We have revised up our growth outlook for 2013 economic growth on account of improved financing conditions and signs of a tightening labour market. However, Lithuania's construction sector remains a long way off from a meaningful recovery, and coupled with a weak external climate, we maintain a tepid outlook for the economy over the coming years.
BMI Political View: Controversy surrounding an ongoing criminal investigation into key members of a majority newly-elected coalition party means that the incoming administration of Prime Ministerdesignate Algirdas Butkevicius will be under enormous pressure to acquire political credibility by honouring its anti-austerity mandate. Although we have long accounted for a looser fiscal policy in our view that Lithuania would continue to progress towards euro adoption, the risk of major coalition instability and a rift with the president's office threatens to force the government into a far more aggressive policy direction than under our current baseline scenario.
Executive Summary 6
SWOT Analysis 8
Lithuania Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT 8
Lithuania Political SWOT 9
Lithuania Economic SWOT 9
Lithuania Business Environment SWOT 10
Pharmaceuticals Risk/Reward Ratings 11
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Pharmaceuticals Risk/Reward Ratings, Q113 11
Rewards 12
Risks 12
Lithuania - Market Summary 14
Regulatory Regime 15
Regional Harmonisation 16
Pharmaceutical Advertising 17
Intellectual Property Developments 18
Pricing Regime 19
Pricing Developments 20
Table: Wholesale Mark-Ups For Reimbursed And Non-Reimbursed Medicines 22
Table: Retail Mark-Ups For Reimbursed And Non-Reimbursed Medicines 23
Reimbursement Regime 23
Reimbursement Developments 24
Industry Developments 26
Epidemiology 26
Table: Leading Causes of Death, 2002-2010 27
Communicable Diseases 27
Table: Selected Notifiable Infectious Diseases, 2004-2010 28
Table: Incidence of HIV & AIDS, 2002-2010 29
Healthcare System 29
Healthcare Provision 29
Table: Inpatient Institutions & Hospital Beds by Sector, 2000-2010 30
Table: Outpatient Facilities by Type, 2003-2010 30
Healthcare Funding 31
Healthcare Insurance 32
E-Health 32
Clinical Trials 33
Biotechnology 34
Recent Biotechnology Sector Developments 35
Medical Devices 36
Industry Forecast Scenario 37
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast 37
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators 2008-2016 38
Healthcare Market Forecast 39
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2008-2016 40
Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators 2008-2016 41
Table: Healthcare Private Indicators 2008-2016 41
Key Growth Factors - Macroeconomic 42
Table: Economic Activity 51
Prescription Drug Market Forecast 52
Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016 54
Patented Drug Market Forecast 55
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators 2008-2016 56
Generic Drug Market Forecast 57
Table: Generic Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016 58
OTC Medicine Market Forecast 59
Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2008-2016 60
Pharmaceuticals Trade Forecast 61
Table: Exports and Imports Indicators 2008-2016 62
Medical Device Market Forecast 63
Table: Medical Devices Sales Indicators 2008-2016 63
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario 64
Competitive Landscape 65
Pharmaceuticals Sector 65
Table: Members of the Association of Manufacturers of Drugs (VGA), 2011 65
Table: Members of the Innovative Pharmaceutical Industry Association (IFPA) 66
Domestic Industry 66
Pharmaceutical Wholesale 67
Pharmaceutical Retail 68
Table: Pharmacies, 2000-2010 69
Pharmaceutical Distribution Developments 70
Company Profiles 72
Local Companies 72
Valentis 72
Sanitas (Valeant) 74
Sicor Biotech (Teva) 77
Multinational Companies 79
GlaxoSmithKline 79
Pfizer 81
Novartis 82
Merck & Co 83
Sanofi 84
Demographic Outlook 85
Table: Lithuania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 86
Table: Lithuania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 87
Table: Lithuania's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 88
Table: Lithuania's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 88
Glossary 89
BMI Methodology 91
How We Generate Our Pharmaceuticals Industry Forecasts 91
Pharmaceuticals Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 92
Ratings Overview 92
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators 93
Weighting 94
Table: Weighting Of Components 94
Company Profiles
Local Companies
Valentis
Sanitas (Valeant)
Sicor Biotech (Teva)
Multinational Companies
GlaxoSmithKline
Pfizer
Novartis
Merck & Co
Sanofi
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