Oman Oil and Gas Report Q1 2013
Business Monitor International, January 2013, Pages: 85
BMI View:
Oman has reason for optimism about its oil and gas sector's prospects in 2013. Its experiment in full-scale enhanced oil recovery (EOR) projects has delivered clear results, with crude production reviving to levels not seen in 10 years. Ambitious plans to expand its downstream sector, with a new grassroots refinery in Duqm, attest to the positive sentiment in the Sultanate's hydrocarbons sector. The icing on the cake would be a final investment decision on BP's proposed $20bn tight gas development. The willingness of the authorities to tweak the pricing structure could make the scheme a bankable one for the UK supermajor - heralding a substantial long-term increase in gas production.
We highlight the following trends and developments in Oman's oil & gas sector:
- BMI sees Oman's proven oil reserves rising from 5.5bn barrels (bbl) in 2011 to 5.9bn bbl by 2013/14, but falling to less than 5.3bn bbl over the long-term forecast period to 2021. The success of enhanced oil recovery (EOR) is critical both in terms of raising estimates of recoverable oil, and in terms of oil production levels.
- Oman's government is anticipating average oil production of 915,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2012, rising to 1mn b/d in 2013. Total production of crude oil and condensates in November 2012 rose by less than one percentage point to 28mn bbl, equivalent to 933,509b/d, over October 2012. According to the Ministry of Oil and Gas' monthly report, total quantities of crude oil exported abroad in November 2012 stood 785,781b/d, a decline by 6.27% compared to October 2012.
- Petroleum Development Oman (PDO) is preparing to spend significant amounts to boost exploration and production (E&P) activities in the next five years. According to reports, the company will invest US
$26bn, as part of a longer-term plan to spend US$60-70bn in the oil & gas sector over the next 10 years.
- The success of Oman's EOR programme is witnessed in the revival in oil production levels that will approach 1mn b/d in 2013. However, natural gas output may struggle to achieve similar increases; much will rest on the success of negotiations between BP and the Omani authorities over its tight gas development planned at Block 61.
At the time of writing, we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$107.05/bbl, falling to US
$99.10/bbl in 2013. Global GDP in 2012 is estimated at 2.6%, up from an assumed 3.1% in 2011 reflecting a faltering recovery in the US and an uncertain eurozone debt situation. For 2013, growth is forecast at 3.2%.
BMI Industry View 7
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 8
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 9
Industry Forecast 9
Oil And Gas Reserves 9
Table: Oman Proven Oil And Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2011-2016 9
Table: Oman Proven Oil And Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2017-2022 10
Oil Supply And Demand 11
Table: Oman Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2011-2016 11
Table: Oman Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2017-2022 12
Gas Supply And Demand 16
Table: Oman Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2011-2016 16
Table: Oman Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2017-2022 17
Refining And Oil Products Trade 21
Table: Oman Refining - Production And Consumption, 2011-2016 21
Table: Oman Refining - Production And Consumption, 2017-2022 21
Revenues/Import Costs 22
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario 22
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 23
Oman Risk/Reward Ratings 23
Regional O&G Risk Reward/Ratings 24
Table: Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings 25
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings 29
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Rewards Ratings 30
Market Overview 32
Oman Energy Market Overview 32
Table: Upstream Projects Database 32
Oil & Gas Infrastructure 34
Table: Refineries In Oman 34
Table: Table: LNG Terminals In Oman 36
Competitive Landscape 37
Competitive Landscape 37
Table: Key Companies In Oman's Energy Sector 38
Table: Key Upstream Players 39
Table: Key Downstream Players 39
Company Profile 40
Petroleum Development Oman (PDO) 40
Shell Oman Marketing Company 43
Oman Oil Company (OOC) 45
Occidental Petroleum (Oxy) 48
RAK Petroleum 51
CNPC 54
Other Companies - Summary 56
Oman Refineries And Petrochemicals Company - Summary 56
OOCEP - Summary 56
Total - Summary 56
BP - Summary 56
MOL - Summary 57
PTTEP - Summary 58
Petrogas - Summary 58
Tethys Oil - Summary 58
Circle Oil - Summary 59
Petroci/Rex Oil and Gas - Summary 59
Others - Summary 60
Regional Overview 61
Regional Energy Market Overview 61
Iraq: Abundance of Risk, Abundance Of Potential 61
Proven Producers Invest To Lift Output 62
Gas Rises, But Consumption Does Too 64
Uncertainty In Tehran 66
Global Industry Overview 67
Global Energy Market Overview 67
Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts - A Comparison 70
Inflection point 70
New Frontiers In Production 71
Appendix 75
Regional Appendix 75
Table: Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) 75
Table: Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 75
Table: Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) 76
Table: Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 77
Table: Table : Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) 77
Table: Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 78
Table: Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 78
Table: Table: Gas Consumption, 2014-2021 (bcm) 79
Table: Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 79
Table: Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 80
Table: Table: Net LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 80
Table: Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 81
Glossary 82
Glossary 82
Table: Glossary Of Terms 82
Methodology 84
Methodology 84
Energy Industry 84
Cross checks 85
Sources 85
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