Philippines Autos Report Q1 2013
Business Monitor International, January 2013, Pages: 59
Two key themes that we expect to see in the Philippine autos market heading into 2013 are outperformance of the commercial vehicle segment over the passenger car sector (on the back of strong investment activity)
and continued strength of private consumption. As such, we are bullish on vehicle sales in the country,
forecasting growth of 10.1% year-on-year (y-o-y), to over 169,000 units, in 2013.
However, we are bearish on local production in Philippines and see very weak growth for 2013. In December 2012, US firm Ford Motor was preparing to close its vehicle assembly plant in the Philippines and consolidate its ASEAN production in Thailand and Malaysia. The plant, which opened in the mid-1990s, is the country's only exporter of new vehicles, shifting a total of 80,000 units to other ASEAN markets between 2002 and 2010.
A bigger risk to companies looking to increase production or imports to the Philippines lies in the proposed new industry policy, which aims to bring total vehicle output to 67,200 units by 2016. Although the policy in itself seeks to encourage investment in local production rather than imports, there remains considerable uncertainty regarding the future course of the policy. We believe the government needs to adopt a more proactive approach if it is to see the auto production and component industry thrive.
As such, we forecast 2013 vehicle production to grow just 2.2%, to 60,700 units. Furthermore, BMI is forecasting average annual growth in domestic vehicle production of 2.1% over 2013-2017.
Despite the uncertain policy environment, the growth potential in the Philippines is strong enough to create a highly competitive vehicle segment. In 2012, Japanese Toyota Motor is expected to report its highest sales ever in Philippines. In the first 11 months of the year, the carmaker sold 58,890 vehicles, more than the full-year sales in 2011 and the 56,855 units sold in 2010.
In the same 11-month period, Mitsubishi Motors Philippine posted sales of 31,500 units and is targeting 43,000 units in 2013. In order to further heat up competition in the new vehicle market, France-based carmaker Peugeot and US-based General Motors Company (GM) are also each looking to expand their presence in the Philippines.
The Philippine motorbike sector is experiencing mixed fortunes. Japanese company Suzuki Motor's Philippines subsidiary launched its new motorcycle manufacturing plant in the Carmelray Industrial Park in Laguna in November 2012. However, its compatriot Honda Motor has put on hold plans to expand its motorcycle plant in Batangas, with Generoso Paralisan, assistant vice president for external affairs at Honda Philippines, stating 'the market is not growing as expected'. The firm was hoping to expand production at its motorcycle plant from 400,000 units to 600,000 units annually.
BMI Industry View 7
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
SWOT 9
Political 10
Economic 12
Business Environment 13
Industry Forecast 14
Industry Forecast 14
Table: Philippines Auto Industry - Sales, 2011-2017 14
Table: Philippines Auto Industry - Production, 2011-2017 16
Table: Philippines Auto Industry - Exports And Imports, 2011-2017 18
Table: Philippines Auto Industry - Economic Contribution, 2011-2017 18
Macroeconomic Forecasts 21
Economic Analysis 21
External Woes Too Pervasive To Ignore 21
Investment Sector Offers A Bright Spot 22
Long-Term Rebalancing In The Cards 22
Table: Philippines - Economic Activity 23
Table: Philippines - Current Account 23
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 25
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 25
Table: Business Environment Ratings - Autos Industry Asia Pacific 28
Competitive Landscape 30
Competitive Landscape 30
Passenger Cars 30
Table: Top 10 Carmakers In Philippines By Sales (Units), 2010-2011 31
Company News 32
Chinese Influx 33
Commercial Vehicles 34
Table: Philippines Commercial Vehicles - Production & Sales, 2011-2017 34
Motorcycles 35
Company Profile 36
Company Monitor 36
Company Profile 38
Company Profile 40
Regional Overview 42
Regional Overview 42
Global Industry Overview 48
Global Industry Overview 48
Table: Passenger Car Sales 8M12 48
Incentive Boom For Japan, US Powers On 48
UK Leads As Germany Falters 50
Russia And Brazil Go From Strength To Strength 52
Demographic Forecast 54
Philippines Demographic Outlook 54
Table: Philippines' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 55
Table: Philippines' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 56
Table: Philippines' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 57
Table: Philippines' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 57
Methodology 58
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 58
Automobile Industry 59
Sources 59
Company Profile
Consolidated Contractors Company
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