Romania Power Report Q1 2013
Business Monitor International, January 2013, Pages: 54
BMI View:
Romania is attempting to privatise its state hydro and nuclear power companies, hike electricity prices while limiting damage to the economy and establish a capacity expansion programme capable of meeting long-term demand growth. Although plans to expand its nuclear generation capacity are in disarray, there is growing momentum behind the country's wind power programme. Low electricity prices threaten investment in generating capacity and transmission infrastructure.
State-owned Hidroelectrica has resumed the tendering process for the US$130mn upgrade of its Stejaru power plant, which was suspended in the aftermath of the company's insolvency. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development is set to provide US$70mn in financing for the project, with the remainder of the financing coming from commercial banks. The tender is scheduled to begin in Q113.
Privatisation of nuclear generator Nuclearelectrica is also planned for Q113, according to economy minister Daniel Chitoiu in August 2012, following a meeting with the International Monetary Fund mission at the headquarters of the Public Finance Ministry.
Key trends and developments in the Romanian electricity market:
- During the 2013-2021 period, Romania's overall power generation is expected to increase by 2.9% per annum to 76.7 terawatt hours (TWh). Driving this growth is an annual 9.0% rise in nuclear generation and a 20.2% average increase in non-hydro renewables-based supply,
offsetting a 0.5% average annual decline in oil-fired electricity.
- After having seen its output decline 11% in 2012 as a prolonged drought prompted the country to cut electricity supplies, Hidroelectrica resumed operating at full capacity in December 2012.
- Following an anticipated 0.5% increase in 2012 real GDP, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 3.0% between 2012 and 2021. The population is expected to fall slightly from 21.4mn in 2012 to 20.9 in 2021, with net power consumption forecast to increase from 52.6TWh in 2013 to 65.2TWh by 2021. During the 2013-2021 period, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 2.8%.
- In May 2012, according to data from the European Energy Portal, the average household electricity price - based on 3,500 kilowatt hours (kWh) per annum consumption - in Romania was EUR0.1095/kWh, which is well below that of most European rivals. In the Czech Republic,
for example, the price was EUR0.1480/kWh, compared with EUR0.1488/kWh in Poland,
EUR0.1708/kWh in Hungary, EUR0.2031/kWh in Italy and EUR0.1419/kWh in the UK. Low electricity tariffs have discouraged investment in power infrastructure and capacity improvements.
- Thanks largely to the forecast rise in net generation, which lags somewhat the underlying demand trend, Romania's power supply shortfall could double over our 10-year forecast period.
A falling percentage of transmission and distribution losses - from around 11.8% in 2012 to 10.8% in 2021 - will help minimise the scale of potential imports.
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Romania Power SWOT 7
Regional Industry Overview 8
Industry Forecast Scenario 13
Romania Snapshot (Macro) 13
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data 13
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 13
Romania Forecast Scenario 14
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 14
Table: Romania Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017 14
Table: Romania Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 16
Table: Romania Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017 18
Table: Romania Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 19
Electricity Consumption 26
Table: Romania Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017 26
Table: Romania Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 26
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports 28
Table: Romania Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017 28
Table: Romania Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 28
Table: Romania Trade Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017 28
Table: Romania Trade Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 28
Key Policies/Market Structure 31
Regulation And Competition 31
Sustainable Energy Policies 32
Pricing 34
Table: Electricity Prices In The EU Member States, As Of May 2012 34
Risk/Reward Ratings 36
Central And Eastern Europe Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings 36
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Power Risk/Reward Ratings 39
Romania Power Risk/Reward Ratings 39
Rewards 39
Risks 40
Competitive Landscape 41
Transelectrica 42
Enel 42
E N 43
Termoelectrica 43
Hidroelectrica 43
?EZ 44
Company Profiles 45
Hidroelectrica 45
Glossary of Terms 47
Table: Glossary of Terms 47
Methodology And Sources 48
Industry Forecasts 48
Power Industry - Data Methodology 49
Generation and Consumption Data 49
Electricity Generation Capacity Data 50
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 50
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators 52
Sources 53
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