South Africa Renewables Report Q1 2013
Business Monitor International, January 2013, Pages: 34
BMI View:
South Africa's REIPP programme continues to attract private investment, with high-profile bidders securing contracts for renewable energy projects. However, the success of the five-round auction system is looking increasingly uncertain as a number of political, economic and sector specific risks are beginning to emerge and in turn threaten the renewables expansion plan. Until we start to see projects progressing down the construction cycle, and finally come online, we will maintain our cautionary outlook towards the sector.
Key trends and developments within South Africa's renewables industry:
- The Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Programme (REIPPP) was launched in August 2011 and established a bidding system for renewables projects. The programme calls for 3,725MW of green energy capacity to be installed by 2016 and 17,800MW by 2030.
- The Department of Energy received 53 bids before the first round submission deadline of 4 November 2011, and 632MW of capacity was allocated. This constituted 18 solar PV projects,
two CSP plants and eight wind farms.
- The second round of bidding took place in December 2011, with 19 projects allocated,
representing roughly 1,044MW of capacity
- The South African government, the International Energy Agency (IEA), and the German development agency, Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit are developing a national solar power roadmap for South Africa.
- In October 2012, the Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA) approved a loan of an roughly $US1.1bn for renewable energy projects.
- The country suspended its Feed-in-Tariff (FiT) programme in 2011.
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 6
South Africa Renewables SWOT 6
Industry Forecast Scenario 7
Table: South Africa Total Electricity Generation, Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2017 7
Table: South Africa Total Electricity Generation Long Term Forecasts, 2014 - 2021 8
Table: South Africa Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2017 10
Table: South Africa Electricity Generating Capacity Long Term Forecasts, 2014 - 2021 11
Table: REIPP Capacity Target- 2016 12
Renewable Projects Database 16
Table: South Africa Major Projects - Renewables 16
Sustainable Energy Policy and Infrastructure 20
Targets (Renewables and Emissions) 20
Subsidies 21
Table: Renewable Feed-In Tariffs In South Africa, 2009 - Phase I and II 21
Infrastructure 22
Renewables Risk/Reward Ratings 23
South Africa Renewables Risk/Reward Ratings 23
Rewards 23
Risks 24
Competitive Landscape 25
Vestas 25
Électricité de France 25
Tata Power 26
Glossary of Terms 27
Table: Glossary of Terms 27
Methodology and Sources 28
Industry Forecasts 28
Renewables Industry - Data Methodology 29
Generation Data 29
Electricity Generation Capacity Data 29
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 30
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators 32
Sources 33
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