Spain Autos Report Q1 2013
Business Monitor International, January 2013, Pages: 68
In the first 10 months of 2012, passenger car sales in Spain decreased 11.9% year-on-year (y-o-y), to 600,231 units, according to the Spanish Association of Car and Truck Manufacturers (ANFAC). BMI maintains a bearish view on consumer sentiment in the country, predicated on rising unemployment,
deflation in the housing market and stringent fiscal cuts. This has partly informed our forecast for a 10%
decline in passenger car sales in 2012.
In an attempt to boost sales and also to increase the fuel-efficiency of vehicles on the road, the Spanish government has been running the PIVE plan (Programa de Incentivos para los Vehículos Eficientes), a vehicle scrappage scheme. It will provide a rebate of EUR2,000 (US$2,600) to those who trade in their old car (over 12-years-old) for a 'low consumption vehicle'.
Cars powered by natural gas, hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and extended range electric (fully or partially powered by internal combustion engines and electric petrol or diesel) qualify for the scheme. The scheme started on October 16 2011 and will run until March 31 2013.
Despite these incentives, car sales are declining heavily in the market, and hybrid, electric, and other alternative-fuel vehicles hold a very small share. Diesel engines dominate the market.
In August 2011 passenger car sales increased 3.4% y-o-y ahead of a VAT increase from 18% to 21% on September 1. We believe this modest increase in sales does not reflect a resurgence in demand. Indeed,
sales in the remaining months may be negatively impacted by consumers bringing forward their vehicle purchases to avoid the VAT increase. We expect passenger car sales to remain subdued in 2013, before returning to moderate growth over the remainder of our forecast period to 2017. Some of this will be a result of the pent-up demand, as consumers delay their purchase decisions.
BMI believes that the Spanish economy will remain mired in recession, and is likely to endure a further year of negative growth in 2013. Substantial deleveraging pressures in the private sector following the real estate bust will continue to eat into wealth and spending power, pinning down inflationary pressures. In addition, the effects of worsening double-digit unemployment and structural joblessness will take years to tackle, conspiring against any sustainable rise in prices.
Furthermore, the government needs to employ wrenching fiscal austerity to gain the public finances under control. We believe that these pressures will impact construction and industrial activity, the key drivers of commercial vehicle (CV) sales. This has partly informed our bearish outlook for sales in this segment. In 2013, we expect to see a small resurgence in growth over 2012 figures, but much of this is from low base effects, and a result of pent-up demand in the market.
In the first nine months of 2012, passenger car production in Spain dropped 18% y-o-y, according to ANFAC. BMI forecasts an 18% decline in passenger car production for the full year. CV production fell 25% y-o-y in the nine months. We believe CV output will drop 26% in the year as a whole. This declining production is predicated on the weak domestic market and large falls in vehicle exports.
Spanish vehicle exports plunged 21.3% y-o-y, to 940,186 units, in 9M12. Most go to Europe, where vehicle sales have nosedived. BMI believes that vehicle manufacturers in Spain may seek to shift their focus away from Europe towards higher growth markets. This may serve to boost exports and production volumes over the longer-term, despite our bearish European sales outlook. We expect this trend to continue, with other auto firms in Europe seeking to boost production and export growth elsewhere.
Over the remainder of our 2017 forecast period, we expect to see the decline in vehicle production levels in Spain continuing, although we have reason to be somewhat less bearish over this period than our previous outlook. In 2017, we forecast a 5.2% decline in total vehicle production, compared with the 19.6 fall we estimate for 2012.
BMI Industry View 7
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
SWOT 9
Political 10
Economic 11
Business Environment 12
Industry Forecast 13
Industry Forecast 13
Sales Forecasts and Analysis 13
Table: Sales, CBUs 13
Production Forecasts and Analysis 14
Table: Production, CBUs 14
Trade Forecasts and Analysis 16
Table: Trade Balance, CBUs 16
Table: Vehicle Exports 17
Industry News 17
Macroeconomic Forecasts 19
Economic Analysis 19
Table: Spain - Economic Activity 24
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 25
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 25
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings For Autos In Europe 28
Competitive Landscape 30
Competitive Landscape 30
Passenger Cars 30
Table: Passenger Car Sales and Production, CBUs 30
Table: Passenger Car Sales By Region 32
Table: Passenger Car Sales By Brand 33
Commercial Vehicles 37
Table: Commercial Vehicle Production, CBUs 37
Table: Commercial Vehicle Sales, CBUs 38
Table: LCV Sales By Brand, CBUs 39
Table: LCV Sales By Region, CBUs 39
Table: Heavy Truck Sales By Brand, CBUs 40
Table: Heavy Truck Sales By Region, CBUs 41
Table: Bus And Coach Sales By Brand, CBUs 42
Table: Bus And Coach Sales By Region, CBUs 43
Motorcycles 44
Table: Motorcycle Sales and Production, CBUs 44
Suppliers 45
Company Profile 47
Company Monitor 47
Seat 49
Renault 51
PSA Peugeot 52
Regional Overview 53
Regional Overview 53
Global Industry Overview 57
Global Overview 57
Table: Passenger Car Sales - 9M12 57
Japan Back To Normal, But US Stays Strong 57
Divergence Remains But Outlook Worsens In Europe 59
Russia Stays Dominant Among The BRICs 60
Demographic Forecast 63
Demographic Forecast 63
Table: Spain's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 64
Table: Spain's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 64
Table: Spain's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 65
Table: Spain's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 66
Methodology 67
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 67
Automobile Industry 68
Sources 68
Company Profile
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