Venezuela Autos Report Q1 2013

  • ID: 2384508
  • January 2013
  • Region: Venezuela
  • 54 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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Vehicle sales in Venezuela increased 11.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the first nine months of 2012.

However, sales declined 12.7% y-o-y in September, a considerable slowdown from the 28.9% y-o-y rise in the first four months of 2012. BMI has long maintained sales would drop back in line with our 10.8
%growth forecast for 2012, and this view is continuing to play out. BMI believes the relatively buoyant vehicle sales in the first part of the year were down to the credit-fuelled consumption increase, combined with favourable low base effects. The unwinding of this, combined with the expected devaluation of the bolívar, will serve to bring vehicle sales down in line with our forecast this year.

Venezuelan vehicle production in the first nine months of 2012 registered a y-o-y increase of 5%, to 83,790 units. Despite strong growth in the beginning of the year, the sector has become more subdued in recent months. In September, vehicle production declined 21% y-o-y, to 8,038 units. In light of ongoing declines in production and the weak regulatory and industrial environment, we recently revised our forecast to a more bearish 3% increase over the year, from a 10.4% increase READ MORE >

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Executive Summary 5

SWOT Analysis 7

Venezuela Autos Industry SWOT 7

Venezuela Political SWOT Analysis 8

Venezuela Economic SWOT Analysis 9

Venezuela Business Environment SWOT Analysis 9

Global Overview 10

UK Boosts Europe, But Favourites Still Outperform 10
Table: Passenger Car Sales 8M12 10

Incentive Boom For Japan, US Powers On 11

Regional Overview 15

Bullish On Mexico 15

Comparative Weakness In The Productive Capacity Of Mexico's Regional Competitors 15

The Continued Recovery Of The US Vehicle Market 17

Positive Developments In The Domestic Supply Chain 18

A Number Of Trade Agreements And Quotas Exist Amongst Mexico's Large Neighbours 18

The Strength Of The Peso May Dampen Export Growth 19

Industry Risk/Reward Ratings 21
Table: BMI Risk/Reward Ratings For Autos Industry In Americas 24

Macroeconomic Forecast 25
Table: Economic Activity, 2011-2016 27

Industry Forecast Scenario 28

Sales 28
Table: Autos Sales, 2010-2017 28

Production 31
Table: Autos Production, 2010-2017 31

Trade 33
Table: Autos Trade, 2010-2017 33
Table: Car Ownership Rate, 2010-2016 34

Competitive Landscape 34
Table: Vehicle Sales By Brand 35
Table: Production By Brand, January-May 36
Table: Production By Brand, June-September 37

Industry News 38

Passenger Cars - Forecast & Analysis 39
Table: Passenger Car Segment, 2010-2017 39

Company News 39

Commercial Vehicles - Forecast & Analysis 41
Table: Commercial Vehicle Segment, 2010-2017 41

Company News 41

Suppliers 43

Company Monitor 44

Company Profiles 46

General Motors Company (GM) 46

Ford Motor 46

Toyota Motor 47

Country Snapshot 48
Table: Venezuela's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 49
Table: Venezuela's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 50
Table: Venezuela's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 51
Table: Venezuela's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 51

BMI Methodology 52

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 52

Automobile Industry 52

Sources 53

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Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown


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