Hungary Power Report Q1 2013
Business Monitor International, January 2013, Pages: 49
BMI View:
The shortfall between the demand and supply of electricity in Hungary looks set to remain over the medium term as the government struggles to implement a coherent strategy to meet the country's long-term goals and needs. However, in order to meet its ambitions to become a significant exporter of electricity, it will have to invest heavily in new nuclear generation and place greater emphasis on its renewables programme.
While growth in renewable power generation capacity is contributing to the increase in Hungary's power capacity, gas generation is expected to remain the main source of growth. Hungary is further pursuing the option of nuclear power, given that it too is a realistic low-carbon option available to state generator MVM. It has been estimated by the government that nine gigawatts (GW) of installed capacity will need to be added by 2025 and that nuclear will account for the single biggest addition.
Key trends and developments in the Hungarian electricity market:
- Hungarian power consumption is forecast by BMI to grow by an annual average of 1.69
%between 2013 and 2021, reflecting the relative maturity of the country's energy market. Growth in power generation during this period is anticipated to average 1.23% per annum, meaning there will be no dramatic change in import dependency, with existing nuclear capacity expected to continue operating
- The time taken to connect wind farms to the grid and the high costs are the main barriers to wind energy development in Hungary, according the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA)
and the Hungarian Wind Energy Association (HuWEA). EWEA and HuWEA would like to see at least 1.2GW installed by 2020, which would provide about 5% of Hungary's electricity demand.
- According to BMI forecasts, non-hydro renewables generation will reach just under 3.7 terrawatt hours (TWh) by 2021. Wind power is forecast to match the government's target and reach 1.2TWh by the end of the 10-year forecast period. However, in all, these figures still fall short of government targets, but a revision of policy would accelerate growth in renewables usage.
- Power prices are relatively high when compared to those available in the country's European peers. May 2012 data, for example, shows that household customers were paying around 15.4
%more than equivalent users in the Czech Republic. Hungarian prices are significantly below those of Germany, providing support for long-term export plans.
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Hungary Power SWOT 6
Regional Overview 7
Industry Forecast Scenario 12
Hungary Snapshot (Macro) 12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data 12
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 12
Hungary Forecast Scenario 13
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity 13
Table: Hungary Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2017 13
Table: Hungary Total Electricity Generation Long Term Forecasts, 2014 - 2021 15
Table: Hungary Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2017 17
Table: Hungary Electricity Generating Capacity Long Term Forecasts, 2014 - 2021 18
Electricity Consumption 22
Table: Hungary Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2017 22
Table: Hungary Total Electricity Consumption Long Term Forecasts, 2014 - 2021 22
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports 23
Table: Hungary Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2017 23
Table: Hungary Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long Term Forecasts, 2014 - 2021 24
Table: Hungary Trade Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2017 24
Table: Hungary Trade Long Term Forecasts, 2014 - 2021 24
Key Policies/Market Structure 26
Regulation and Competition 26
Pricing 27
Table: Electricity Prices In the EU Member States, As Of May 2012 27
Key Projects Database 28
Table: Key Projects 28
Risk/Reward Ratings 30
Central and Eastern Europe Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings 30
Table: Central and Eastern Europe Power Risk/Reward Ratings 33
Hungary's Power Risk/Reward Ratings 33
Rewards 33
Risks 34
Competitive Landscape 35
MVM 35
MAVIR 35
MOL 35
EdF 36
E N 36
RWE 36
Electrabel 37
AES 37
Company Profiles 38
MVM 38
Glossary of Terms 42
Table: Glossary of Terms 42
Methodology and Sources 43
Industry Forecasts 43
Power Industry - Data Methodology 44
Generation and Consumption Data 44
Electricity Generation Capacity Data 45
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 45
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators 47
Sources 48
Company Profile
Vedanta Resources
National Aluminium Company (NALCO)
Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL)
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