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India Metals Report Q1 2013 - Product Image

India Metals Report Q1 2013

  • Published: January 2013
  • Region: India
  • 74 pages
  • Business Monitor International

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BMI View:

Indian metals production will hit headwinds in 2013 as market growth moderates in the face of a slowdown in the automotive industry. Producers may also struggle to secure raw material and energy supplies for their operations. That said, the long-term outlook for India's metals sector is very optimistic.

We expect India to become a major consumer of metals over the coming years, in line with the country's industrialisation and growth of a wealthy middle class. This will spur production; however, we do not expect production to keep up and this India will become a major importer of metals in the coming years,
rather than a small exporter.

Vedanta's expansion project, which is raising its smelting capacity from 1.6mn tonnes per annum (mtpa) to 2.5mtpa, along with a recovery in the aluminium market and hope that constraints to growth will be alleviated, should support 35% growth in primary aluminium output to 1.9mnt in 2016. In addition, we have raised our forecast for net exports from 132,000 tonnes to 261,000 tonnes in 2011. Lower levels of domestic consumption than previously forecast should ensure that India maintains a trade surplus in aluminium over READ MORE >

BMI Industry View 7

India Metals 7

SWOT 8

Metals 8

Industry Forecast 9

Steel: Surplus To Decline 9
Table: India - Steel Production & Consumption, 2009 - 2017 11
Table: India - Steel Industry Historical Data, 2003 - 2010 ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 11

Aluminium: India To Become Major Importer 12
Table: India - Refined Aluminium Forecasts ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 17

Copper: Sterlite To Drive Output Growth 18
Table: Table: India - Refined Copper Production & Consumption, 2009 - 2017 22

Zinc: Consumption Growth To Outpace Production 22
Table: Table: India - Refined Zinc Production & Consumption, 2009 - 2017 24

Commodities Forecast 25

Monthly Metals Strategy 25

Iron Ore: Holding Up, For Now 26

Steel: Bleak Outlook 28

Aluminium: Major Gains Over 29

Copper: Global Stockpiles Pose Downside Risk 30

Lead: Heading Lower 32

Nickel: No Return To 2012 Highs 34

Tin: Continued Outperformance 35

Zinc: Bounce Is Coming To An End 36
Table: BMI Commodity Price Strategy 37
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & BMI Forecasts 37

Steel Forecast 38
Table: BMI Steel Forecast 38
Table: Steel Forecast 44

Competitive Landscape 45

India Competitive Landscape 45
Table: Table: Crude Steel Production Capacity By End-2012 (mntpa) 45
Table: Table: Indian Steel Market Share By Major Players (%) 46
Table: Table: India - Aluminium Smelters 2012 48

Company Profile 50

Vedanta Resources 50
Table: Table: Vedanta Resources - Key Financial Data 55

National Aluminium Company (NALCO) 56
Table: NALCO - Key Financial Data 59

Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL) 60
Table: SAIL - Financial Data 63

Demographic Forecast 64

India Demographic Data 64
Table: India's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 65
Table: India's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 66
Table: India's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 67
Table: India's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 67

Methodology 68

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 68

Cross Checks 68

Company Profile
Bumi Resources
PT Timah
PT Antam

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