China’s Grain Market Analysis and Forecast Report 2011-2012
Beijing Shennong Kexin Agribusiness Consulting Co.,Ltd, February 2012, Pages: 101
This report provides clear, objective points and detailed and accurate data combined with quantitative analytical methods which indicate the characteristics of development and change in the 2011 China wheat, corn, paddy & rice and barley markets. This report summarizes characteristics of China's Paddy & Rice, Corn, Wheat and Barley market in 2011 by analyzing the Production, Consumption, Import and Export situations and the growing cost-benefit and policy factors of China's grain in recent years. Additionally, the report also analysed and predicted China's Grain market in 2012.
The Grains in this report include: Paddy & Rice, Wheat, Corn and Barley.
The major changes in China's grain market characteristics in 2011:
1 The price of chemical fertilizers, labor, diesel and others increased hence the cost of planting grain generally rose.
2 The acreage of grain increased because farmers planting enthusiasm is high as the lowest buying price of grain continued to rise up. Drought, flood, wind and such extreme weather made little impact to grain growth hence the yield generally increased.
3 China is net corn importer, import volume reduced, the net import volume was 1,617,000MT; China is net wheat importer, the net import volume was 1,209,000MT, the wheat came from America increased; China is rice net importer, the net import volume was 63,000MT, import volume of paddy&rice increased especially that came from Vietnam; 2011 barley output increased, import volume reduced, but China is still net barley importer, the net import volume was 1,769,000MT.
4 Price of wheat, paddy and corn remained the trend of rising that influenced by currency inflation, market shortage and the fluctuations from international market.
This report is based on data collected from a series of authoritative organizations, such as the State Administration of Grain, Bureau of Statistics, Customs General Administration, China Grain Association, National Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Commerce combined with information in Domestic and International newspapers and magazines for analytical reasoning purposes.
RESEARCH BACKGROUND
CHAPTER ONE GRAIN POLICIES IN CHINA
1.1 Grain Producing and Processing Policy
1.1.1 Continued Promoting Grain, Seed and Agricultural Equipment Subsidies
1.1.2 Whitening Agent is Forbidden to be Used in Flour From May 1st
1.1.3 The State Suspends the Policy of Value-added Tax Deduction for Corn Purchased by Corn Further Processing Firms
1.1.4 Agricultural Development Bank Regulate the Policy of Quasi-policy Grain Purchasing Loans
1.1.5 NDRC Incourages Some Grain Processing Projects
1.1.6 Auction Buds Wheat Purchasing in 2009 to Ease Corn Supply Pressure
1.2 Grain Reserve Policy
1.2.1 The State purchasing price of Wheat and Rice Substantially Increased
1.2.2 China Grain Reserves Corporation to be the only Purchasing Performer, the Lowest Procurement Price of Wheat not Executed
1.2.3 An Additional 3.7 Million Tons Corn for Alternation to Stabilize the Market
1.2.4 Grain Purchasing and Auction Analysis in 2011
1.3. Continued Implementation of Import Quotas on Grain Management
1.4 China Published the First Thai Jasmine Rice Industry Standard
CHAPTER TWO PADDY & RICE
2.1 Paddy Production in China
2.1.1 Structure of China's Paddy Production
2.1.1.1 Structure of China's Early Indica Paddy Production
2.1.1.2 Structure of China's Single Rice Production
2.1.1.3 Structure of China's Late Indica Paddy Production
2.1.2 Paddy Plantation Area Increased Slightly in 2011
2.1.3 Paddy Yield Increased Slightly in 2011
2.1.4 Paddy Production Increased to 200Million Tons in 2011
2.2 Costs and Benefits of Paddy Planting in China
2.2.1 Planting Costs Continued to Increased in 2011
2.2.2 Slightly increased in Output Values in 2011
2.2.3 Benefits of Paddy Planting Dropped Slightly in 2011
2.3 Analysis of China's Rice Export
2.3.1 Export Volume Reduced Slightly, Price Increased
2.3.2 Main Exported to South Korea, North Korea and Some African Countries
2.3.3 Most Rice Exported from Jiangxi, Shanghai and Northeast Provinces
2.4 Analysis of China's Rice Import
2.4.1 Import Volume Increased Slightly, Price Dropped
2.4.2 Main Imported from Thailand, Rice Came FromVietnam Increased Sharply
2.5 Paddy&Rice Processing and Consumption in China
2.5.1 Paddy Processing Concentrated in Main Paddy Producing Areas
2.5.2 Paddy Processing Capacity Concentration Ratio Increased Year on Year
2.5.3 Main Produced Grade I and Special Grade Rice
2.5.4 Paddy Processing Profit in 2011 Continued to Decline
2.5.5 Most Paddy Used to Eat, Per Capita Spending Dropped Slightly
2.5.6 Rice Production of Scale Enterprise Increased
2.6 Market Price of Paddy&Rice in China
2.6.1 Fund for Purchase is Sufficient, and New Paddy Price Keeps Increasing
2.7 Forecast on Paddy&Rice Supply and Demand in 2012
2.7.1 Predict Paddy Production to Increas Slightly in 2012
2.7.2 Forecast on China's Rice Trade in 2012
2.7.3 Forecast on China’s Paddy&Rice Consumption
2.7.4 Forecast on Market Price Change
2.7.5 Forecast on Processing Capacity and Structure of Processing Enterprises
2.7.6 Forecast on Supply and Demand of China Paddy&Rice Market in Year 2011/2012
CHAPTER THREE WHEAT
3.1 China's Wheat Production
3.1.1 Structure of China's Wheat Production
3.1.2 Planting Area Increased Slightly in 2011
3.1.3 Yield Remained Stable in 2011
3.1.4 2011 Drought Made Little Influence to Production, Output Continued Increasing
3.2 Cost and Benefit of Wheat Planting in China
3.2.1 Planting Costs Increased in 2011
3.2.2 Substantial Rose in Wheat Purchasing Price, Wheat Value Per Unit Area Increased
3.2.3 Slightly Declined in Wheat Planting Benefits in 2011
3.3 Analysis of China's Wheat Trade
3.3.1 Analysis of China's Wheat Import
3.3.1.1 Import Volume and Price Increased by Different Degree
3.3.1.2 Main Imported from Australia, America and Canada
3.3.1.3 More than 80% Wheat Imported by Guangdong Provinces
3.3.2 Wheat Export Volume to Be Small
3.4 China's Wheat Processing
3.4.1 Flour Enterprises Concentrated in Northern
3.4.2 Concentration Ratio of Wheat Processing Capacity Increased Slightly
3.4.3 Grade I and Grade II Flour Acounted For 70% of Total
3.4.4 Profits of Wheat Processing Increased Steadily in 2011
3.5 China's Wheat Consumption
3.5.1 Main Consumption of Wheat to Eat
3.5.2 Flour Output of Scale Enterprise Increased
3.5.3 Output of Instant Noodles Rose Due to High Demand
3.5.4 Output of Frozen Staple Food Increased Slightly
3.6 Analysis of China's Flour Trade
3.6.1 Analysis of China's Flour Export
3.6.1.1 Export Volume and Price Both Increased Slightly
3.6.1.2 Main Exported to Hong Kong and North Korea
3.6.1.3 Flour Exported by Guangdong and Anhui Provinces
3.6.2 Flour Import Volume to Be Small
3.7 Market Price of China's Wheat
3.7.1 Wheat Spot Price Hit a High Record in 2011
3.7.2 Wheat Futures Price Declined After Increasing Sharply in 2011
3.8 Forecast on Wheat Supply and Demand in 2012
3.8.1 Predict Wheat Production to Increase Slightly in 2012
3.8.2 Forecast on China's Wheat Trade in 2012
3.8.3 Forecast on China’s Wheat Consumption
3.8.4 Forecast on Market Price Change in 2012
3.8.5 Forecast on Processing Capacity and Structure of Processing Enterprise
3.8.6 Forecast on Supply and Demand of China Wheat Market in Year 2011/2012
CHAPTER FOUR CORN
4.1 China's Corn Production
4.1.1 The Structure of China's Corn Production
4.1.2 China's Corn Planting Area Increased in 2011
4.1.3 Corn Yield Increased Slightly in 2011
4.1.4 China's Corn Production Rose in 2011
4.2 Costs and Benefits of Corn Planting in China
4.2.1 Costs of Corn Planting Increased in 2011
4.2.2 Corn Value Per Unit Area Rose Sharply in 2011
4.2.3 Benefits of Corn Planting Boosted Slightly in 2011
4.3 China's Corn Import
4.3.1 Import Volume Kept Increasing, Still Net Importer
4.3.2 Import Volume and Price Increased
4.3.3 More Than 90% Corn Came From America
4.3.4 Main Imported by Shenzhen, Nanning, Shanghai and Nanjing Customs
4.4 China's Corn Export
4.4.1 Export Volume and Price Increased in Different Level
4.4.2 All Exported to North Korea
4.4.3 Main Exported by Dalian and Changchun Customs
4.4.4 All Exported by Northeast Provinces
4.5 China's Corn Consumption
4.5.1 China’s Corn Consumption Structure
4.5.2 Output of Industrial Feed Increased Year on Year
4.5.3 Consumption of Further Processing Boosted
4.6 Market Price of China's Corn
4.6.1 Corn Spot Price Rose Steadily in 2011
4.7 Forecast on Corn Supply and Demand in 2012
4.7.1 Predict Corn Production to Increase Slightly in 2012
4.7.2 Forecast on China's Corn Trade in 2012
4.7.3 Forecast on China’s Corn Consumption
4.7.4 Forecast on Change of Market Price in 2012
4.7.5 Forecast on Supply and Demand of China Corn Market in Year 2011/2012
CHAPTER FIVE BARLEY
5.1 China's Barley Production
5.1.1 Structure of China's Barley Production
5.1.2 Barley Acreage and Production Boosted Slightly in 2011
5.2 China's Barley Trade in 2011
5.2.1 Import Volume Declined, Price Rose Sharply
5.2.2 Main Imported from Australia and France
5.2.3 Imported by Jiangsu, Guangdong and Liaoning Provinces
5.2.4 Main Imports by Nanjing, Dalian, Huangpu and Qingdao Customs
5.3 China's Barley Consumption
5.3.1 Malting Barley Consumption Continues to Increase
5.3.2 Beer Production Boosted Steadily
5.4 Forecast on Barley Supply and Demand in 2012
5.4.1 Predict Barley Production to Increase Slightly in 2012
5.4.2 Forecast China's Barley Import Volume to be 2 Million ton in 2012
5.4.3 Forecast on China’s Barley Consumption
5.4.4 Forecast on Supply and Demand of China Barley Market in Year 2011/2012
MAPS
Map 1, Structure of China's Paddy Production
Map 2, Structure of China's Wheat Production
Map 3, Structure of China's Corn Production
Map 4, Structure of China's Barley Production
FIGURE CONTENTS
Figure 1, Subsidies for Grain, 2004-2011
Figure 2, Unsound Wheat’s Transaction in 2011
Figure 3, Lowest Buying Price of Wheat and Indica Paddy, 2004-2012
Figure 4, Transactions of National Reserve Wheat, 2009-2011
Figure 5, China's Rice Plantation Area, 1978-2011
Figure 6, China's Early, Middle and Late Paddy Yield, 1978-2011
Figure 7, China's Rice Production, 1978-2011
Figure 8, Cost of Planting Early Paddy in China, 1999-2011
Figure 9, Cost of Planting Middle Paddy in China, 1999-2011
Figure 10, Cost of Planting Late Paddy in China, 1999-2011
Figure 11, China's Early Paddy Output Values, 1999-2011
Figure 12, China's Middle Paddy Output Values, 1999-2011
Figure 13, China's Late Paddy Output Values, 1999-2011
Figure 14, Benefits of Planting Early Paddy in China, 1999-2011
Figure 15, Benefits of Planting Middle Paddy in China, 1999-2011
Figure 16, Benefits of Planting Late Paddy in China, 1999-2011
Figure 17, China's Rice Export Volume and Price by Month, 2000-2011
Figure 18, Chinese Rice Export by Country in 2011
Figure 19, China's Rice Export by Province in 2011
Figure 20, China's Rice Import Volume and Price by Month, 2000-2011
Figure 21, Chine’s Rice Import by Country in 2011
Figure 22, Output of China's Rice by Province, 2011
Figure 23, Rice Processing Capacity of China, 2004-2011
Figure 24, Structures of Rice Production
Figure 25, Profit of Paddy Processing, 2002-2011
Figure 26, Characteristics of China's Paddy & Rice Consumption in Year 2011/12
Figure 27, Rice Production of Scale Enterprises, 2003-2011
Figure 28, Wholesale Price of Middle and Late Indica Paddy in China, 2007 -2011
Figure 29, Food Consumption of Paddy, 1991-2011
Figure 30, Wholesale Price of Paddy in China in 2011
Figure 31, China's Wheat Plantation Area, 1979-2011
Figure 32, China's Wheat Yield, 1979-2011
Figure 33, China's Wheat Production, 1979-2011
Figure 34, Cost of Planting Wheat in China, 1999-2011
Figure 35, China's Wheat Output Value and Average Selling Price, 1999-2011
Figure 36, Profit of Planting Wheat in China, 1999-2011
Figure 37, China's Wheat Import Volume and Price by Month, 2000-2011
Figure 38, China's Wheat Import by Country in 2011
Figure 39, China's Wheat Import by Province in 2011
Figure 40, China's Wheat Export Volume and Price by Month, 2000-2011
Figure 41, China's Flour Output by Province in 2011
Figure 42, Concentration Ratio of Chinese Wheat Processing, 2004-2011
Figure 43, Structure of China's Flour Products
Figure 44, Profit of Wheat Processing in China, 2007-2011
Figure 45, Structure of Wheat Consumption in Year 2011/12
Figure 46, Flour Output of Scale Enterprises, 2003-2011
Figure 47, Instant Noodles Output of Scale Enterprises, 2006-2011
Figure 48, Frozen Staple Food Output of Scale Enterprises, 2007-2011
Figure 49, China's Flour Export Volume and Price by Month, 2000-2011
Figure 50, China's Flour Export by County in 2011
Figure 51, China's Flour Export by Province in 2011
Figure 52, China's Flour Import Volume and Price by Month, 2000-2011
Figure 53, China's Wheat Wholesale Price, 2008-2011
Figure 54, China's Wheat Futures Price, 2010-2011
Figure 55, China's Corn Plantation Area, 1979-2011
Figure 56, China's Corn Yield, 1979-2011
Figure 57, China's Corn Production, 1979-2011
Figure 58, Cost of Planting Corn in China, 2003-2011
Figure 59, China's Corn Output Value, 2003-2011
Figure 60, Profit of Planting Corn in China, 2003-2011
Figure 61, China’s Corn Net Import Volume, 2000-2011
Figure 62, China's Corn Import Volume and Price by Month, 2000-2011
Figure 63, Corn Import Volume by Country in 2011
Figure 64, Corn Import Volume by Customs in 2011
Figure 65, China's Corn Export Volume and Price by Month, 2000-2011
Figure 66, China's Corn Export to North Korea by Month, 2009-2011
Figure 67, China's Corn Export by Customs in 2011
Figure 68, China's Corn Export by Province in 2011
Figure 69, Structure of China's Corn Consumption in Year 2011/12
Figure 70, Industrial Feed Output in China, 2000-2011
Figure 71, Consumption of Further Processed Corn in China, 2000-2011
Figure 72, Wholesale Price of Corn in China, 2008-2011
Figure 73, China's Barley Plantation Area and Production, 1998-2011
Figure 74, China's Barley Import Volume and Price by Month, 2000-2011
Figure 75, China's Barley Import by Original Country in 2011
Figure 76, China's Barley Import by Province in 2011
Figure 77, China's Barley Import by Customs in 2011
Figure 78, Structure of China's Barley Consumption in Year 2011/12
Figure 79, China's Beer Output, 1990-2011
ATTACHED TABLES
Table 1, Grain Subside and Scope of China in 2011
Table 2, The Lowest Buying Price of Grain, 2004-2011
Table 3, Import and Export Tariff Rates of Grain, 2011
Table 4, Quality Index of Indica Paddy in China
Table 5, Quality Index of Japonica Paddy in China
Table 6, Quality Index of Wheat in China
Table 7, China's Paddy Plantation Area by Province, 2000-2011
Table 8, China's Early Paddy Plantation Area by Province, 2000-2011
Table 9, China's Middle Paddy Plantation Area by Province, 2000-2011
Table 10, China's Late Paddy Plantation Area by Province, 2000-2011
Table 11, China's Rice Yield by Province, 2000-2011
Table 12, China's Rice Production by Province, 2000-2011
Table 13, China's Early Paddy Production by Province, 2000-2011
Table 14, China's Middle Paddy Production by Province, 2000-2011
Table 15, China's Late Paddy Production by Province, 2000-2011
Table 16, Cost of Planting Early Indica Paddy in China, 2000-2011
Table 17, Cost of Planting Middle Indica Paddy in China, 2000-2011
Table 18, Cost of Planting Late Indica Paddy in China, 2000-2011
Table 19, Output of China's Early Indica Paddy Per Unit Area in China, 2000-2011
Table 20, Output of China's Middle Indica Paddy Per Unit Area in China, 2000-2011
Table 21, Output of China's Late Indica Paddy Per Unit Area in China, 2000-2011
Table 22, Profit of Planting Early Indica Paddy by Province in, 2000-2011
Table 23, Profit of Planting Middle Indica Paddy by Province in, 2000-2011
Table 24, Profit of Planting Late Indica Paddy by Province in, 2000-2011
Table 25, China’s Rice Export by Country, 2000-2011
Table 26, China’s Rice Export by Province, 2006-2011
Table 27, China’s Rice Import by Country, 2000-2011
Table 28, Paddy Processing Capacity of Primary Regions, 2000-2011
Table 29, Supply and Demand of China's Rice, 2005/06-2011/12
Table 30, China's Wheat Plantation Area by Province, 2000-2011
Table 31, China's Wheat Yield by Province, 2000-2011
Table 32, China's Wheat Production by Province, 2000-2011
Table 33, Cost of Planting Wheat by Province, 2000-2011
Table 34, Output of China's Wheat Per Unit Area by Province in China, 2000-2011
Table 35, Profit of Planting Wheat by Province, 2000-2011
Table 36, China's Wheat Import by Country, 2000-2011
Table 37, Flour Industry Products Output of Scale Enterprises, 2007-2011
Table 38, China's Wheat Flour Export by Country, 2000-2011
Table 39, China's Wheat Flour Import by Country, 2000-2011
Table 40, Wheat Processing Capacity of Primary Regions, 2000-2011
Table 41, Supply and Demand of China's Wheat, 2005/06-2011/12
Table 42, China's Corn Plantation Area by Province, 2000-2011
Table 43, China's Corn Yield by Province, 2000-2011
Table 44, China's Corn Production by Province, 2001-2011
Table 45, Cost of Planting Corn by Province, 2000-2011
Table 46, Output of China's Corn Per Unit Area by Province in China, 2000-2011
Table 47, Profit of Planting Corn by Province, 2000-2011
Table 48, China's Corn Import by Country, 2000-2011
Table 49, China's Corn Export by Country, 2000-2011
Table 50, Output of Industrial Feed, 2001-2011
Table 51, Supply and Demand of China's Corn, 2005/06-2011/12
Table 52, China's Barley Plantation Area by Province, 2000-2011
Table 53, China's Barley Production by Province, 2000-2011
Table 54, China’s Barley Import by Country, 2000-2011
Table 55, Supply and Demand of China's Barley, 2004/05-2011/12
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