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Brazil Mining Report Q1 2013 - Product Image

Brazil Mining Report Q1 2013

  • Published: January 2013
  • Region: Brazil
  • 86 pages
  • Business Monitor International

FEATURED COMPANIES

  • Alcoa
  • Anglo American
  • Company Profile
  • Vale
  • MORE

Brazil's mining sector is poised for continued, though slower, growth as weaker foreign demand weighs on Brazilian exports. The country's large untapped reserves and relatively small mining sector relative to regional peers make it a compelling sector growth story and should continue to attract investment despite macroeconomic uncertainty. Iron ore production will continue to be the main driver of mining sector investment, but we expect growth in several base metals, as well as gold, providing opportunities for mining companies and investors. Investments into infrastructure in advance of the 2014 FIFA World Cup and 2016 Olympics will not only help support demand for raw materials, but also enable more efficient transport of mineral resources.

We forecast that Brazil's mining industry will grow 4.0% in 2013 over our year-end 2012 mining sector estimate and expect the industry's value to reach US$69.2bn in 2017, representing 2.3% average per annum growth. However, we note that our 2013 forecast remains slightly below Brazil's 2011 mining industry value, due primarily to lower than average iron ore prices for the year. Given Brazil's status as the second largest iron ore producer READ MORE >

BMI Industry View 7

Brazil Q1 2013 7

SWOT 9

Mining 9

Global Industry Overview 11

Global Mining Outlook 11

1 Winners & Losers In 2013 11
Table: Recent Tax Increases 12

2 China Slowdown To Weigh On Mining Equities 12

3 Capex At Risk As Prices Head Lower 14

4 Africa To Continue Attracting Chinese Attention 16

5 Changing Global Coal Trade Dynamics 17

Regional Overview 19

Americas Mining Sector Outlook 19
Table: Key Central America And Caribbean Mining Projects 21

Market Overview 25

Brazil Market Overview 25

Iron Ore To Remain Foundation Of Brazilian Mining 26

Sector Diversification On The Way 26

Vale To Lead Sector 27

Risks To Outlook 28
Table: Brazil - Mining Industry Value & Production, 2009 - 2017 28

Industry Forecast 30

Bauxite: Growth Despite Market Weakness 30

Major Bauxite Players 31
Table: Table: Brazil - Mine Bauxite Mine Expansion Plans 31

Uncertainty In Indonesia Presents Upside Risks 33
Table: Table: Brazil - Bauxite Production Forecasts, 2009 - 2017 (mnt) 33

Gold: Brazil To Make Gains 34
Table: Select Greenfield Gold Projects 34

Positive Gold Outlook 35
Table: Brazil Gold Production, 2009 - 2017 35

Iron Ore: Growth To Continue Despite Weakening Chinese Demand 36

Slowing Demand From China 37

Vale To Continue Leading The Way 38
Table: Brazil - Key Iron Ore Mining Investments 39

Risks To Outlook 39
Table: Brazil - Iron Ore Production, 2009 - 2017 (mn tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 40

Nickel: Strong Growth To Continue 40
Table: Brazil - Key Nickel Projects 41

Indonesian Upside 42
Table: Brazil - Nickel Production, 2009 - 2017 ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 43

Tin: Brazil To Capture Larger Share Of Market 43
Table: Brazil - Tin Production Forecasts, 2009 - 2017 ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 44

Regulatory Development 45

Brazil Mining Sector 45

Brazil's Taxes To Maintain Regional Competitiveness 45

Provinces Seeking Higher Taxes 45

Permitting Challenges Remain 45

Industry Risk Reward Ratings 47

Americas Business Environment Ratings 47
Table: Table: Americas Mining Risk/Reward Ratings 48

Competitive Landscape 51

Brazil Competitive Landscape 51
Table: Financial Data For Key Firms Listed In Brazil 51

Iron Ore Companies Dominate Mining Sector 52

Gold Holds Potential 53

Company Profile 54

Alcoa 54
Table: Table: Alcoa - Financial Data 58

Anglo American 59
Table: Table: Anglo American - Key Financial Data 62

Vale 63
Table: Vale - Key Financial Data 66

Commodities Forecast 68

Monthly Metals Strategy 68

Iron Ore: Holding Up, For Now 69

Steel: Bleak Outlook 71

Aluminium: Major Gains Over 72

Copper: Global Stockpiles Pose Downside Risk 73

Lead: Heading Lower 75

Nickel: No Return To 2012 Highs 77

Tin: Continued Outperformance 78

Zinc: Bounce Is Coming To An End 79
Table: BMI Commodity Price Strategy 80
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & BMI Forecasts 80

Demographic Forecast 81

Brazil Demographic Data 81
Table: Brazil's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 82
Table: Brazil's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 83
Table: Brazil's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 84
Table: Brazil's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 84

Methodology 85

Company Profile
Alcoa
Anglo American
Vale

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