Brazil Oil and Gas Report Q1 2013
Business Monitor International, January 2013, Pages: 113
BMI View:
We remain firmly bullish on the long-term outlook for the Brazilian energy sector, with production from the country's pre-salt reserves pushing production to new highs. New licensing rounds in 2013 also present strong upside risks, although at this point they may be outside the scope of our 10-year forecast period. The short-term outlook is more mixed, however, as ongoing regulatory challenges provide reason for some caution. Of these, the partially diffused saga between the Brazilian federal courts and Chevron and Transocean, as well as ongoing uncertainty regarding a new Royalty Law, underscore the weaknesses and inconsistencies in Brazil's regulatory environment. Over the long-term, achieving international fuel price parity will be critical to the health of Petrobras, the most important player in the country.
The key trends and developments in the Brazilian oil & gas sector are:
The long-term outlook for the Brazilian energy sector is decidedly bullish, with an average oil and gas production growth rate of 8.1% and 6.5%, respectively, over our forecast period. Included in our forecast is a total oil production increase from 2.88mn barrels of oil per day (b/d) in 2012 to 4.34mn b/d in 2017,
largely driven by increased volumes coming from the country's vast pre-salt oil reserves. This is particularly true as state-owned Petrobras is placing increasing emphasis on increasing pre-salt production over the next few years.
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Industry Forecast Scenario 11
Table: Table: Brazil Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2010-2016 11
Table: Table: Brazil Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2015-2021 12
Table: Table: Brazil Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2010-2016 14
Table: Table: Brazil Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2015-2021 15
Table: Table: Brazil Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2010-2016 17
Table: Table: Brazil Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2015-2021 18
Table: Brazil Refining - Production and Consumption, 2010-2016 21
Table: Brazil Refining - Production and Consumption, 2015-2021 22
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 24
Table: Latin American Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings 25
Upstream: Brazil and Peru Vying For Top Spot 27
Table: Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings 28
Downstream: Diverging Macroeconomic Environments 29
Table: Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings 30
Market Overview 32
Brazil Energy Market Overview 32
Table: Brazil - Upstream Projects Database 34
Overview/State Role 37
Licensing And Regulation 37
Table: Key Upstream Players In Brazil's Oil & Gas Sector 41
Table: Key Downstream Players In Brazil's Oil & Gas Sector 42
Oil and Gas Infrastructure 42
Table: Table: Refineries In Brazil 42
Competitive Landscape 49
Table: Key Players In Brazil's Oil And Gas Sector 50
Company Profile 51
Petróleo Brasileiro 51
Shell Brasil 56
Company Profile 60
Esso Brasileira de Petróleo 63
Chevron Brasil 64
Ultrapar Participações (Grupo Ultra) 67
BG do Brasil 70
BP Brasil 74
Statoil do Brasil 77
OGX Brazil 80
Other Companies - Summary 83
Galp Energis Summary 83
Eni Summary 83
Mitsui Summary 83
Maersk Oil Summary 83
Cosan Summary 84
Total Summary 84
Vale do Rio Doce Summary 85
Andarko Petroleum Summary 85
Partex Summary 85
Sonangol Summary 86
Service Companies Summary 86
Others Summary 86
Regional Overview 88
Regional Energy Market Overview 88
Global Industry Overview 95
Global Energy Market Overview 95
Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts - A Comparison 98
Inflection point 98
New Frontiers In Production 99
Appendix 103
Latin America - Regional Appendix 103
Table: Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) 103
Table: Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 104
Table: Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) 104
Table: Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 105
Table: Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) 105
Table: Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 106
Table: Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 106
Table: Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 107
Table: Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 107
Table: Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 108
Table: Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 109
Table: Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 109
Glossary 110
Table: Glossary Of Terms 110
Methodology 112
Energy Industry 112
Cross checks 113
Sources 113
Company Profile
Petróleo Brasileiro
Shell Brasil
Company Profile
Esso Brasileira de Petróleo
Chevron Brasil
Ultrapar Participações (Grupo Ultra)
BG do Brasil
BP Brasil
Statoil do Brasil
OGX Brazil
Other Companies - Summary
Galp Energis Summary
Eni Summary
Mitsui Summary
Maersk Oil Summary
Cosan Summary
Total Summary
Vale do Rio Doce Summary
Andarko Petroleum Summary
Partex Summary
Sonangol Summary
Service Companies Summary
Others Summary
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