The US Diet Market Outlook To 2008: Future Profit Opportunities For Low Carb And Other Fast Growth Diets
Scripp Business Insights, February 2005, Pages: 151
The weight loss industry is a robust and diverse market within the United States, comprising dozens of eating regimens, dieting support groups, supplements, food products, meal replacements, books, and videos. As the prevalence of overweight and obesity continue to rise in the United States, greater numbers of individuals are developing health complications associated with those conditions, creating an ever-growing market for these services and products. 44% of the population is actively trying to lose weight. Of the remaining 56%, 32% can be classified as Healthy Eaters, while the remainder are not particularly concerned with their eating habits.
The US is without doubt the most dynamic and advanced country in the healthy eating and drinking market. But, how can you profit from the diet food and drink trends in the US?
The US Diet Market Outlook to 2008: Future profit opportunities for low carb and other fast growth diets is a new management report revealing unique analysis of consumption pattern changes among dieters, benchmarked executive opinions on core consumer drivers for diet purchasing and detailed growth forecasts for low carb products by category to 2008.
This new report will provide you with growth strategies for diet brands enabling you to increase your food and drink product sales. Adopt best practice NPD and marketing strategies from analysing the US food and drink diet market and forecast the future with confidence by pinpointing trends that have already taken place in the US.
This new report will provide you with:
- A US consumer survey revealing consumer behaviour, consumer drivers and a new profile of the dieting population: low carb lifestylers; conventional dieters; healthful eaters and non-dieters.
- Predicted growth for the following categories in the US low carb market to 2008: snacks, soft drinks, dairy, bakery, confectionery and prepared meals.
- Expert author analysis of the US diet market landscape revealing consumer health profiles and the impact of popular diets such as the Pritikin Diet, Ornish Diet, Zone Diet and Dr.Phil's Diet.
- Strengths and weaknesses of the low carb trend, such as: manufacturer survival, new alternatives and market saturation.
This report examines the impact of a maturing low carb sector in the US, its implications and the dieting trends that will drive health food growth in the next five years.
Here’s just a few of the key findings from the report:
- Four out of every five low carb dieters believe that it works and is healthy. Only two out of five conventional dieters believe the same is true.
- Low carb bakery is forecast to experience almost 500% growth between 2003 and 2008, rising to $3.2bn.
- Two thirds of female dieters do so for cosmetic, rather than health reasons. Three quarters of men diet for health, rather than cosmetic reasons.
This brand new report will provide you with:
- Recommendations to help you avoid the mistakes related to the current low carb trend with analysis of dieting trends that will drive health food and drink growth in the future.
- Market size and value forecasts from 1998–2008 for snacks, soft drinks, dairy, bakery, confectionery, prepared meals and ‘other’ food and drink diet categories.
- Best practice marketing and NPD strategies to ensure survival and profitability in the diet food and drink market.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
The US Diet Market Landscape
Drivers and Dynamics of The Diet Market
The US Diet Consumer
Competitive Analysis of Major Low Carb Brands
Medical & Regulatory Environment
The Future of Low Carb Dieting and Beyond
Low Carb Diet Growth Strategies
Chapter 1 The US Diet Market Landscape
Summary
Introduction
Key findings
Dieting in the United States
Overview
Ever more homogeneous dietary habits and lifestyles
Consumer weight profile
Consumer health profile
Metabolic syndrome
Diabetes
The cyclical nature of dieting
Popular diets by type
Low carb diets
Low fat diets
Other diets
Diet support groups
Individual Dieting
The weight-loss industry
Low carb dieting
The original low carb diet
The Atkins Advantage
Consumer segmentations
Consumer dietary habits by type
Dedicated low carb lifestylers
Flexible low carb lifestylers
Consumer perception of the low carb lifestyle
Conclusions
Chapter 2 Drivers and Dynamics of The Diet
Market
Summary
Introduction
Key findings
Market size
Market segments
Snacks
Soft Drinks
Dairy
Bakery
Confectionery
Prepared meals
Strengths and weaknesses of the low carb trend
The strengths
Manufacturer survival
Prevalence of flexible dieters
Scientific findings do not refute low carb benefits
A new alternative - and the weaknesses
Market saturation
Potential lack of scientific support
Decrease in efficacy and/or success stories
Conclusions
Chapter 3 The US Diet Consumer
Summary
Introduction
Key findings
Consumer profile
Segmentation by weight
Motivated to get thin
Consumer survey
Dieting population profile
Consumer behavior
Willpower diminishes throughout the day
Only Low Carb Dieters interested in carbohydrate intake
True Low Carb Dieters are few and far between
Understanding consumers’ food choices
Understanding consumers’ drink choices
Consumer drivers
Personal relationships drive consumers’ diet choices
Taste and price drive the consumer
Taste is a barrier for attracting new low carb consumers
Conclusions
Chapter 4 Competitive Analysis of Major
Low Carb Brands
Summary
Introduction
Key findings
Manufacturer identification
Low carb manufacturers
Larger companies weigh in on the low carb trend
Competition among low carb manufacturers
Changing the landscape of the low carb market
Major CPGs manufacturers entering the market: a lesson from organics
Low carb new product development: diversifying products
Low carb as a scapegoat
Case Study: Atkins Nutritionals
A history of Atkins Nutritionals
Atkins food and drink products
Partnerships and the pyramid
The future for Atkins
Case Study: Keto Foods
Reformulating favorite foods
Research and development are key business areas
Future growth
Industry survey
The low carb market is an opportunity for growth
Manufacturers’ forecasts for low carb diets
Comparison to the low fat trend
Future market drivers
Endorsements and brand awareness
Drivers contributing to product success
The low carb marketplace
Price premiums are high
Price premiums as a barrier to market growth
Low carb ingredients and product formulation
Marketing a low carb product
Conclusions
Chapter 5 Medical & Regulatory Environment
Summary
Introduction
Key findings
The science behind dieting
The low fat and low carb theories
The low fat theory
The low carb theory
The low fat and low carb trends
The low fat trend
The low carb trend
The glycemic index
Low carbohydrate studies
Short-term studies
Long term studies
Government
The Food Guide Pyramid
Atkins and the Food Pyramid
The FDA and nutrition labels
Low Carb Claims and Nutrition Labels
Regulating organics
Conclusions
Chapter 6 The Future of Low Carb Dieting
and Beyond
Summary
Introduction
Key findings
Rapid growth of low carb bakery, snacks and prepared meals
The rapid growth of the bakery category
Guilt-free snacking
Low carb frozen meals will appeal to busy consumers
Increased market consolidation
Distribution and shelf space
Market consolidation
The importance of “Buy-in” of Healthful Eaters and healthcare referrals
Internalizing the low carb message
Medical factors
The next “big thing” - five years away
Industry and consumer components necessary for significant trends
Increased media coverage of low carb weight loss
High levels of controversy
A charismatic spokesman
Development of ingredients and improved product taste
A mature food and beverage industry
The “coolness” factor
The promise of a quick fix
Scientific logic that makes sense to the layman
Chapter 7 Low Carb Diet Growth Strategies
Summary
Introduction
Key findings
Improve the taste, competitiveness and appeal
Product formulation and taste
Reducing price premiums
Target evening eating occasions
Brand building and preparation for strategic alliances and acquisitions
Small, niche low carb companies
Large CPG manufacturers
Education through marketing partnerships
Create wider appeal through marketing campaigns
Partner with healthcare professionals
Develop community outreach programs
Conclusions
List of Figures
Figure 3.1: US population by BMI category, by gender, %, 2002-2007
Figure 3.2: Ranked meal occasion by ease of diet adherence, by consumer group, % (where 1 = easiest and 6 = hardest)
Figure 3.3: Consumption changes made when attempting weight loss/maintenance, by consumer
group, % respondents who answered “always”
Figure 3.4: Consumption changes when attempting to lose/maintain weight, by food category, % respondents
Figure 3.5: Consumption changes when attempting to lose/maintain weight, by drinks category, % respondents
Figure 4.6: Low carb beer and malternative entrants, 2004
Figure 4.7: “Mid-carb” soda entrants, 2004
Figure 4.8: Reduced-carb orange juices, by brand, 2004
Figure 4.9: Atkins food product examples, 2004
Figure 4.10: Atkins-certified co-venture examples, 2004
Figure 4.11: Keto food product examples, 2004
Figure 4.12: Industry perception of low carb trend, by importance, % respondents
Figure 4.13: Manufacturer opinion of low fat and low carb consumers and purchases now and in five years, % respondents
Figure 4.14: Industry perceptions of low carb consumer drivers, by importance, % respondents
Figure 5.15: Glycemic index certification symbol
Figure 5.16: Proposed changes to nutrition labels, 2004
Figure 6.17: Market size, by category, $bn, 2003-2008
Figure 6.18: USDA Food Guide Pyramid, 2003
Figure 6.19: Atkins Food Guide Pyramid, 2004
Figure 6.20: Consumer groups and product attributes, by degrees of “coolness”
List of Tables
Table 1.1: Prevalence of overweight and obesity, 2002-2007
Table 1.2: Prevalence of diabetes, by type, (million), 2003-2009
Table 1.3: Risk factors associated with being overweight and obese
Table 1.4: Breakdown of the weight-loss industry, by category
Table 1.5: Consumer segmentation, by dieting/lifestyle type
Table 1.6: Consumer perception of the low carb diet, by “agree completely” and “agree somewhat,” by consumer group (% respondents)
Table 2.7: U.S. low carb food and beverage market value, by category, ($m), 1998-2008
Table 2.8: Growth of low carb snacks market, ($m), 1998-2008
Table 2.9: Low carb product introductions, snacks category
Table 2.10: Growth of low carb soft drinks market, ($m), 1998-2008
Table 2.11: Growth of low carb dairy market, ($m), 1998-2008
Table 2.12: Low carb product introductions, dairy category
Table 2.13: Growth of low carb bakery market, ($m), 1998-2008
Table 2.14: Low carb product introductions, bakery category
Table 2.15: Growth of low carb confectionery market, ($m), 1998-2008
Table 2.16: Low carb product introductions, confectionery category
Table 2.17: Growth of low carb prepared meals market, ($m), 1998-2008
Table 2.18: Low carb product introductions, prepared meals category
Table 3.19: Main reason for dieting, by gender, % respondents
Table 3.20: Consumer groups, by age, % respondents
Table 3.21: Consumption changes made when attempting weight loss/maintenance, by consumer group, % respondents who answered “always”
Table 3.22: Consumption changes when attempting to lose/maintain weight, by food category, % respondents
Table 3.23: Consumption changes when attempting to lose/maintain weight, by drinks category, % respondents
Table 3.24: Ranked influencing factors in dieting choice, by consumer group, (where 1 = strongest and 8 = weakest)
Table 3.25: Ranked purchasing priorities, by consumer group (where 1 = strongest and 10 = weakest)
Table 4.26: Low carb companies and respective product categories, 2003
Table 4.27: Multinational companies and respective new low carb product introductions, through June 2004
Table 4.28: New product introductions, #, 1999-2003
Table 4.29: Manufacturer opinion of low fat and low carb consumers and purchases now and in five years, % respondents
Table 4.30: Industry perceptions of low carb consumer drivers, by importance, % respondents
Table 4.31: Ranking of manufacturer vs. consumer preferences
Table 4.32: Low carb price premium examples, 2004
Table 4.33: Sweetener substitute glossary
Table 5.34: Average reduction in weight and heart disease, and dropout rate, by specific diet, %
Table 5.35: Pounds lost, by time on diet, low carb vs. conventional dieting, 2003
Table 5.36: FDA guidelines
“Thirty-four percent of consumers consume more milk when trying to lose or maintain weight, while 20% drink smoothies and yogurt beverages. Fifty three percent of consumers drink more juice when trying to lose or maintain weight...”
“It is predicted that by 2007, 60% of females and 76% of males will be overweight or obese. Only 37% of men are actively trying to lose weight, compared to 51% of women...”
“It is estimated the size of the low carb food and beverage market in 2003 to be $3.6 billion, with market growth expected to reach $14.9 billion by 2008. Among the fastest areas for growth are the bakery and prepared meals categories...”
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