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Nigeria Oil and Gas Report Q1 2013 - Product Image

Nigeria Oil and Gas Report Q1 2013

  • ID: 2424629
  • February 2013
  • Region: Nigeria
  • 114 pages
  • Business Monitor International

BMI View

With several projects in the pipeline or due to come onstream over the next few years, such as Usan (180,000b/d) and Egina (150,000-200,000b/d), we expect Nigerian oil output to rise substantially over our forecast period to 2021. In addition, attempts to cut gas flaring will boost the outlook for gas production. Nevertheless, OPEC quotas, the risk of project delays and Nigeria's political environment,
particularly vis-á-vis the PIB, still imply a significant amount of uncertainty.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Nigeria's Oil and Gas sector are as follows:

- We have downgraded our 2012 oil production estimates, due to severe weather conditions, which have cause flooding in the vast majority of Nigeria's oil infrastructure. Nigeria's oil production dropped at least 20% in the weeks of October 2012, owing to severe flooding and oil theft, according to a statement by government oil officials on October 24 2012. Severe flooding led to a loss of nearly 500,000 barrels per day (b/d) of oil output in October 2012, according to an industry regulator. The country's production,
including crude and condensate, dropped to nearly 2.1-2.2mn b/d in the week ended October 20 2012,
compared with an average of 2.5mn b/d in 2011. Therefore we now estimate that for the year 2012, total oil production decreased to 2.2mn b/d in relation to our previous estimates of 2.5mn b/d. Consequently,
Nigeria's export potential for 2012 is expected to fall to 1.9mn b/d.

- BMI expects oil production to increase from an estimated 2.2mn b/d in 2012 to 2.62mn b/d by 2021, as ambitious projects such as Usan (180,000b/d) and Egina (150,000b/d-200,000b/d) come onstream.

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BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

Oil And Gas SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 10

Oil And Gas Reserves 10
Table: Nigeria Reserves and Petroleum Forecasts , 2010-2016 10
Table: Nigeria Reserves and Petroleum Forecasts, 2010-2016 11

Oil Supply And Demand 13
Table: Nigeria Oil Production And Consumption Forecast, 2010-2016 13
Table: Nigeria Oil Production And Consumption Forecast, 2015-2021 13

Gas Supply And Demand 17
Table: Table Headertable:headerGas Production, Consumption And Trade Forecasts, 2010-2016 17
Table: Gas Production, Consumption And Trade Forecasts, 2015-2021 18

Refining 22
Table: Nigeria Refining Production And Capacity, 2010-2016 22
Table: Nigeria Refining Production And Capacity, 2015-2021 22

Revenues and Import Costs 22

Risks to Outlook 23

Industry Risk Reward Ratings 24

Nigeria Industry Risk Reward Ratings 24

Regional Risk Reward Ratings 25
Table: Table: Africa's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings 26
Table: Africa's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings 28
Table: Proposed And Planned Refineries In Africa 31
Table: Africa's Downstream Risk/Reward Scores 32

Market Overview 33

Nigeria Energy Market Overview 33
Table: Nigeria - Major Upstream Projects 44

Oil and Gas Infrastructure 45
Table: Table: Refineries In Nigeria 47
Table: Table: LNG Projects In Nigeria 53

Competitive Landscape 56
Table: Table: Key Players - Nigerian Oil And Gas Sector 57
Table: Nigeria Upstream Players 57
Table: Nigeria Downstream Players 58

Company Profile 59

Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) 59

Royal Dutch Shell 62

ExxonMobil 66

Chevron 70

Eni 75

Total 79

Afren 83

Other Companies - Summary 86

ConocoPhillips 86

CNOOC 86

ONGC Mittal 86

Petrobras 87

BG Group 87

Gazprom 87

Sinopec 87

Oando 88

KNOC 88

Sunrise 88

Maurel & Prom 89

Others 89

Regional Overview 90

Global Industry Overview 95

Global Energy Market Overview 95
Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts - A Comparison 98

Inflection point 98

New Frontiers In Production 99

Appendix 103

Regional Appendix 103
Table: Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) 103
Table: Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 104
Table: Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) 104
Table: Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 105
Table: Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) 105
Table: Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 106
Table: Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 107
Table: Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 107
Table: Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 108
Table: Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 109
Table: LNG Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 109
Table: LNG Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 110

Methodology 111

Energy Industry 111

Cross checks 112

Sources 112

Glossary 113
Table: Glossary Of Terms 113

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