Iran Oil and Gas Report Q1 2013
Business Monitor International, February 2013, Pages: 93
BMI View
International sanctions remain in place, resulting in a sustained fall in oil export volumes and revenues. Due to significant obstacles for financing, due to both falling export revenues and sanctionsrelated challenges, investment the energy sector will remain strained. Indeed, gas export schemes and refinery expansion projects will make little progress as international oil company (IOC) partners heed the investment embargo, As such, the overall outlook will remain negative unless there is a breakthrough in Iran's negotiations with the international community over its nuclear programme. Meanwhile, Iran is claiming a succession of major oil and gas discoveries that, if proven, demonstrate considerable upside potential to its existing resource base.
We highlight the following trends and developments in Iran's oil and gas sector:
- BMI sees Iranian oil production declining significantly in 2012-13 as a result of international sanctions focused on preventing the Islamic Republic from selling its oil exports abroad. Indeed, we forecast more than a 20% fall in oil production from 2011 to 2012. Production will remain depressed over the course of 2013, only to pick up modestly over our forecast period. Production in 2017 is expected to be 3.78mn barrels per day (b/d), which is still over 10% below the 4.23mn b/d produced in 2011.
- US economic sanctions against Iran have slashed the volume of crude exported and oil revenues, the US Treasury said in mid-September 2012 as it vowed to keep up the pressure on Tehran to prevent the Iranian government from enriching uranium to make nuclear weapons. US efforts have paid off with Iranian crude exports falling to about 1mn b/d, the US Treasury said. We are forecasting that total net oil export will fall close to 3% in 2013, on top of the 37% fall in exports we estimate for 2012.
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 10
Oil And Gas Reserves 10
Table: Iran Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2010-2016 10
Table: Iran Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2015-2021 11
Oil Supply And Demand 12
Table: Iran Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2010-2015 12
Table: Iran Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2015-2020 13
Gas Supply And Demand 15
Table: Iran Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2010-2016 15
Table: Iran Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2015-2021 16
Refining And Oil Products Trade 19
Table: Iran Refining - Production and Consumption, 2010-2016 19
Table: Iran Refining - Production and Consumption, 2015-2021 19
Revenues/Import Costs 20
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario 20
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 21
Iran - Overview 21
Iran Upstream Rating - Rewards 21
Iran Upstream Rating - Risks 21
Iran Downstream Rating - Overview 21
Regional O&G Risk Reward/Ratings 21
Table: Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings 23
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings 26
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Rewards Ratings 27
Market Overview 29
Iran Energy Market Overview 29
Overview/State Role 29
Licensing And Regulation 29
Government Policy 30
International Energy Relations 31
Table: Key Upstream Operators - Iran Oil And Gas Sector 39
Table: Key Downstream Operators - Iran Energy Sector 39
Oil and Gas Infrastructure 40
Oil Refineries 40
Table: Refineries In Iran 40
Service Stations 43
Oil Storage Facilities 43
Oil Terminals/Ports 43
Oil Pipelines 44
LNG Terminals 45
Gas Pipelines 45
Gas Storage 51
Competitive Landscape 53
Table: Key Players - Iranian Oil And Gas Sector 53
Company Profile 54
National Iranian Oil Company 54
National Iranian Oil and Refining Distribution Company 58
Eni 61
Total Iran 62
Shell Development Iran 63
China National Petroleum Corporation 64
ONGC Videsh 66
Other Companies - Summary 68
Regional Overview 69
Regional Energy Market Overview 69
Global Industry Overview 74
Global Energy Market Overview 74
Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts - A Comparison 77
Inflection point 77
New Frontiers In Production 78
Appendix 82
Regional Appendix 82
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) 82
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 82
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) 83
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 84
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) 84
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 85
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 85
Table: Gas Consumption, 2014-2021 (bcm) 86
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 86
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 87
Table: Net LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 87
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 88
Glossary 89
Table: Glossary Of Terms 89
Methodology 91
Energy Industry 92
Cross checks 92
Sources 93
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