Peru Oil and Gas Report Q1 2013
Business Monitor International, February 2013, Pages: 78
BMI View
Petroperú remains on course to resume upstream activity after decades on the sidelines. The timing is right for the state-owned company to regain a slice of domestic oil and gas production, as we forecast both will rise rapidly over the next few years, and will remain elevated through to the end of our forecast period in 2021. The underexplored nature of the energy sector, combined with an increasingly attractive business environment for foreign investment, creates further upside risk to our forecasts. It also supports our view that Peru will remain one of the most dynamic economics in Latin America over the forecast period. The country is not risk-free, however, with relations with indigenous communities sitting firmly at the top of the list of concerns.
The main trends and developments we highlight in the Peruvian oil and gas sector are:
- 2013 will be Peru's last year as an oil importer, with our forecasts suggesting imports of just 16,000 barrels per day (b/d). In 2014, the country will have a (theoretical) export capacity of approximately 37,400b/d, representing the beginning of a steep rise culminating in a peak of 128,780b/d in 2016. However, in order to sustain export levels above 100,000b/d through and beyond our forecast period ending in 2021, additional successful production will be required. The fact that it is largely unexplored presents solid upside risks to its reserves forecast. Strong economic growth should help drive an increase in consumption from 201,480b/d to 226,840b/d between 2012 and 2017.
- The outlook for the country's gas sector is similarly bright. Gas production is forecast to jump from an estimated 9.3bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2012 to 13.5bcm in 2017. Gas consumption, meanwhile, is expected to grow steadily, rising from 6.4bcm in 2012 to 8.6bcm by 2017. The gas export potential therefore increases to 4.81bcm, with scope for a further rise to 5.74bcm by 2021.
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 10
Oil & Gas Reserves 10
Table: Peru Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2011-2017 11
Table: Peru Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2016-2021 12
Table: Peru Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2011-2017 13
Table: Peru Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2015-2021 14
Table: Peru Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2011-2017 15
Table: Peru Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2015-2021 17
Oil Supply And Demand 18
Gas Supply And Demand 19
Refining And Oil Products Trade 21
Table: Peru Refining - Production and Consumption, 2011-2017 21
Table: Peru Refining - Production and Consumption, 2015-2021 22
Revenues/Import Costs 23
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario 23
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 24
Peru Industry Risk/Reward Ratings 24
Peru Upstream Rating - Rewards 24
Upstream Rating - Risks 24
Downstream Rating - Overview 24
Table: Latin American Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings 25
Upstream: Brazil and Peru Vying For Top Spot 26
Table: Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings 27
Downstream: Diverging Macroeconomic Environments 28
Table: Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings 29
Market Overview 31
Overview/State Role 31
Licensing And Regulation 31
Government Policy 31
Licensing Rounds 31
Table: Key Upstream Players 33
Table: Key Downstream Players 33
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 34
Oil Refineries 34
Table: Refineries In Peru 34
Oil Pipelines 35
LNG Terminals 35
Gas Pipelines 35
Competitive Landscape 37
Table: Key Players In Peru Oil & Gas Sector 38
Company Profile 39
Petroperú 39
Reposl Peru 42
Other Summaries 44
Sapet Peru/CNPC - Summary 44
Maple Energy - Summary 44
Pluspetrol - Summary 45
Hunt Oil - Summary 45
Perenco - Summary 45
SK Corporation - Summary 46
Petrobras - Summary 46
ConocoPhillips - Summary 47
Savia Perú - Summary 47
Talisman Energy - Summary 48
BPZ Energy/Shell - Summary 48
Americas Petrogas - Summary 49
Others - Summary 49
Regional Overview 52
Regional Energy Market Overview 52
Global Industry Overview 59
Global Energy Market Overview 59
Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts - A Comparison 62
Inflection point 62
New Frontiers In Production 63
Appendix 67
Latin America - Regional Appendix 67
Table: Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) 67
Table: Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 68
Table: Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) 68
Table: Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 69
Table: Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d) 69
Table: Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 70
Table: Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 70
Table: Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 71
Table: Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 71
Table: Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 72
Table: Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 73
Table: Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 73
Glossary 74
Table: Glossary Of Terms 74
Methodology 76
Energy Industry 77
Cross checks 77
Sources 78
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