Zimbabwe Mining Report Q1 2013

  • ID: 2424687
  • February 2013
  • Region: Zimbabwe
  • 62 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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Zimbabwe's mining sector is set for rapid development as the country dramatically recovers from two decades of declining output. Zimbabwe is richly endowed with deposits of chrome, gold, nickel and platinum, among other minerals. Its gold reserves are among the largest in Africa, while it hosts the second largest platinum reserves in the world. Another segment that has caught the attention of miners in Zimbabwe is diamonds, following the discovery of a number of significant kimberlites. Forecasting growth rates for the Zimbabwean mining sector is a highly uncertain process at present, with so much of the sector's direction governed by political events. At base, we believe the scene is set for a period of strong growth, as the industry recovers from a disastrous period during the mid-2000s. While we see significant growth potential in gold and platinum output, it is in diamond production that the country holds the most promise,
having the potential to match the largest producers over the long term.

Over the short term, there could be renewed weakness in mining sector output, as the country looks to introduce its indigenisation policy, which could see companies scaling down READ MORE >

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BMI Industry View 7


Mining 9

Industry Forecast 10

Platinum: Enormous Potenital Matched By Risks 10
Table: Zimbabwe - Major Platinum Projects 12

Political Risks Weigh Heavily On Sector 12
Table: Zimbabwe - Platinum Production ('000 ounces, unless stated otherwise) 12

Diamonds: Sector Faces Uncertain Future 13
Table: Zimbabwe - Diamond Production 15

Gold: Production Set For Dramatic Turnaround 15
Table: Key Gold Projects In Zimbabwe 16
Table: Zimbabwe - Gold Production 17

Industry Risk Reward Ratings 18
Table: African Government Intervention 18

Elevated Prices Increasing Rewards, But Political Risks Lurk 18
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Rewards Ratings 19

Market Overview 25
Table: Zimbabwe- Key Mining Projects 26

Iron Ore & Coal Hold Promise 26
Table: Zimbabwe - Mining Industry Value & Production 27

Regulatory Development 28

Commodities Forecast 30

Monthly Metals Strategy 30

Iron Ore: Holding Up, For Now 31

Steel: Bleak Outlook 33

Aluminium: Major Gains Over 34

Copper: Global Stockpiles Pose Downside Risk 35

Lead: Heading Lower 37

Nickel: No Return To 2012 Highs 39

Tin: Continued Outperformance 40

Zinc: Bounce Is Coming To An End 41
Table: BMI Commodity Price Strategy 42
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & BMI Forecasts 42

Company Profile 43

African Consolidated Resources 43

Impala Platinum 46

Regional Overview 48

Africa Mining Outlook 48

1 Lack Of Infrastructure Is The Greatest Challenge 48

2 Resource Nationalism Will Increase 49
Table: Table: Recent Government Intervention 49

3 Continuing Chinese Investment Into Africa 50

4 Southern Africa To Become A Key Coal Exporter 51

Global Industry Overview 53

Global Mining Outlook 53

1 Winners & Losers In 2013 53
Table: Recent Tax Increases 54

2 China Slowdown To Weigh On Mining Equities 54

3 Capex At Risk As Prices Head Lower 56

4 Africa To Continue Attracting Chinese Attention 58

5 Changing Global Coal Trade Dynamics 59

Methodology 61

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