Morocco Mining Report Q2 2013

  • ID: 2517078
  • March 2013
  • Region: Morocco
  • 58 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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  • Kasbah Resources
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For Q213 we are sticking with our existing forecasts for Morocco's mining sector. We expect growth to speed up in 2013 as a result of new phosphate fertiliser plants in the country, rising to 8.2% year-on-year (yo-
y). We expect growth to average 3.6% y-o-y from 2012 to 2017, reaching US$1.61bn by the end of the period. For 2017 we forecast a conservative growth rate, as it remains to be seen how the effect of Saudi Arabia's large investments in phosphate production capacity and China's drive towards self-sufficiency in key raw material inputs will affect Morocco's mining prospects.

The vast majority of capacity additions in coming years will be coming from Saudi Arabia and Morocco.

Ma'aden in Saudi Arabia began diammonium phosphate (DAP) production in 2011 and will reach the steady-state production rate of 3mnt (mn tonnes) DAP by 2013. The Office Chérifien des Phosphates (OCP) will also be adding significant new capacity to the market between 2013 and 2015. As producers from Saudi Arabia and Morocco generally sit on the left side of the cost curve, some high-cost capacity (typically Chinese producers) who do not have access to lower-cost rock, may be displaced.

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  • Kasbah Resources
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BMI Industry View 7

Industry Forecast 9

Phosphates: Morocco Moves Downstream 9
Table: Table: Morocco - Phosphate Production Forecast 14

Industry Risk Reward Ratings 15

Africa Risk/Reward Ratings 15
Table: Africa - Recent Government Intervention 15

Elevated Prices Increase Rewards, But Political Risks Lurk 15
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Rewards Ratings 16

Botswana: All Round Outperformer 17

South Africa: Nationalisation Fears Overblown 17

Zambia: Investment To Continue Despite Higher Taxes 18

Mozambique: Mining Sector Set To Boom 19

Sierra Leone, Mali, Guinea, Côte d'Ivoire: Massive Reserves But Uncertain Outlook 20

DR Congo: Huge Resources, Enormous Risks 20

Zimbabwe: Uncertainty To Deter Investment 20

Market Overview 22
Table: Table: Morocco - Mining Industry Value And Phosphate Production 23

Regulatory Development 24

Commodities Forecast 26

Commodity Strategy 26
Table: BMI Commodity Strategy 34
Table: Select Metals - Performance And BMI Forecasts 35

Competitive Landscape 36
Table: Table: Key Players In Morocco's Mining Sector 37

Company Profile 38

Kasbah Resources 38

Maya Gold & Silver 41

Regional Overview 43

1 Lack Of Infrastructure Is The Greatest Challenge 43

2 Resource Nationalism Will Increase 44
Table: Recent Government Intervention 44

3 Continuing Chinese Investment Into Africa 45

4 Iron Ore Production In West Africa To Boom 46

5 Southern Africa To Become A Key Coal Exporter 47

Global Industry Overview 48

Global Mining Outlook 48

1 Winners And Losers In 2013 48
Table: Recent Tax Increases 48

2 China Slowdown To Weigh On Mining Equities 49

3 Capex At Risk As Prices Head Lower 50

4 Africa To Continue Attracting Chinese Attention 51

5 Changing Global Coal Trade Dynamics 52

6 Greater Industry Consolidation 54

7 New Destinations To Attract Substantial Investment 54

Methodology 56

Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 56
Table: Mining Business Environment Indicators 57
Table: Weighting Of Components 58

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Kasbah Resources
Maya Gold & Silver

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