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Romania Country Report - May 2013 - Product Image

Romania Country Report - May 2013

  • Published: May 2013
  • Region: Romania
  • 30 Pages
  • Emerging Markets Direct

FEATURED COMPANIES

  • CFR Marfa
  • Oltchim
  • Posta Romana
  • MORE

With an unexpected 2.1% GDP growth in Q1, in addition to other good news - including exports' performance and the CA surplus in the quarter - analysts' confidence in Romania has received a boost of sorts. The Romania Country Report is a monthly report, covering the major macroeconomic indicators and trends in Romania, as well as important political developments. Among other indicators it shows the independent projections for full-year growth rates have shifted above 2%. There is potential for above-2% growth rates, to accelerate in the coming years. But there are several complicated key issues to be tackled before such growth potential is realised. The credit market is frozen on the back of weak confidence on both sides. The energy markets are hardly functioning and the regulatory frame for the renewable energy is volatile. The reforms scheduled under the SBA with the IMF in the state-controlled companies are far from completed.

Prepared by local analysts, this report is indispensable. It provides the most accurate data, updated regularly according to the data changes noted by the whole range of statistics sources. It will save the time you would need to track the figures and sources independently and will provide you with thorough analysis.

Executive Summary

Politics

Relationship with IFIs

Real Sector
1. Corporate, structural reforms
2. GDP, Forecasts
3. Industry, Constructions, Retail
4. Prices, Inflation
5. Labour Market

Fiscal Sector
1. Budget Execution
2. EU Budget
3. Fiscal Policy, Public Debt

Financial Sector
Monetary Policy
Non Bank
Non Bank/Insurance
1. Bank Loan Quality
2. Loans and Deposits

External Sectors
1. Balance Payments
2. Foreign Trade
3. External Debt
4. Forex Reserves

Table 1: : Industrial production (%, y/y)
Table 2: Construction Works Volume Index (%, y/y)
Table 3: Retail Sales Volume Index (% y/y)
Table 4: Consumer, Producer Prices (%, y/y)
Table 5: Wages, employment
Table 6: General government budget (RON mn)
Table 7: Public Debt [% of GDP, eop, ESA meth.]
Table 8: Public Debt [eop, national methodology including borrowing from own reserves funds]
Table 9: Aggregate indicators for credit institutions (eop, unless otherwise indicated)
Table 10: Quality of the stock of bank loans (eop, RON mn unless otherwise indicated)
Table 11: Current Account (EUR mn)
Table 12: Romania CA balance 2012
Table 13: Foreign trade (EUR mn)
Table 14: : External debt (EUR mn)

Fig. 1: GDP, seas. adjusted (2005=100)
Fig. 2: Industrial production
Fig. 3: Industrial Production, seasonally & workday adjusted (2010=100)
Fig. 4: Industrial Production Volume Index, incl. 12-month average % y/y
Fig. 5: Construction Works Index (2010=100)
Fig. 6: Construction Works, seasonally & workday adjusted (2010=100)
Fig. 7: Construction Works Volume Index, incl. 12-month average % y/y
Fig. 8: Retail Sales Index, seas. adj. (2010=100)
Fig. 9: Retail Sales Volume Index, (2010=100)
Fig. 10: Consumer Price Index (y/y)
Fig. 11: PPI vs. CPI (y/y)
Fig. 12: Average net wage [2000=100]
Fig. 13: ILO, registered unemployment
Fig. 14: Public debt (EUR mn; national meth.)
Fig. 15: Net profit vs. provision cost (EUR)
Fig. 16: Provision cost [EUR mn, quarterly]
Fig. 17: Bad loans (EUR) and NPL ratio
Fig 18: Overdue payments on bank loans
Fig. 19: Stock of bank loans [EUR mn]
Fig. 20: Non-government deposits
Fig. 21: C/A deficit in rolling 12M
Fig. 22: Foreign trade balance [EUR mn]
Fig. 23: Rolling 12M exports (EUR mn)
Fig. 24: FOB exports vs. imports (EUR mn)
Fig. 25: Exports (EUR mn)
Fig. 26: Forex reserves at BNR (EUR mn)
Fig. 27: External debt (EUR mn)

Slow reforms in the state owned companies indicate that the final review [and completion] of the stand-by arrangement with the IMF will probably be shifted toward the end of 2013 – from initially April 2013. Officially, the Fund's team is expected to run the final review in June and submit the conclusions to the Board in July. At least three state controlled companies are in critical state: cargo railway company CFR Marfa, chemical plant Oltchim and postal company Posta Romana. The government admitted all the three bidders for CFR Marfa – but they are unlikely to be able to boost the activity of the debt-ridden railway company. The government insists that there are still investors interested in Oltchim – but it still has not started yet any privatisation procedures. It is unlikely that any serious investor would show up upon such short notice. For Posta Romana, the government postponed starting the privatisation procedures from May 28 to six months later. This provides the best hint on plans to delay the whole SBA with the IMF to the year end.

GDP increased by 2.1% y/y in Q1, the statistics office reported under a first flash estimate. In seasonally-adjusted terms, the GDP rose by 0.5% q/q. The Fiscal Council (commenting on the government's 2014-2016 fiscal planning) stressed that the outstanding 2.1% GDP growth in Q1/2013 is far from indicating a sustainable economic recovery since short-term indicators still provide mixed messages.

- CFR Marfa
- Oltchim
- Posta Romana

Format Properties
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