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Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Petrochemicals Report 2014

  • ID: 2711014
  • December 2013
  • Region: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan
  • 89 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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FEATURED COMPANIES

  • KazMunaiGaz
  • Uzbekneftegaz
  • MORE

BMI View: Central Asia is a rapidly evolving and growing market for petrochemicals that has been heavily import dependent in recent years. Over the medium term, the two most industrialised countries, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, are set to become net exporters with the construction of world-scale complexes likely to stimulate downstream investment in plastic and rubber conversion industries.

In the Central Asia region, only two states are active participants in the petrochemicals sector - Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Neither has significant existing ethylene capacity. In fact, their combined cracking capacity of 240,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) is less than that of Nigeria or Egypt. Uzbekistan is landlocked, and hence is faced with considerable transportation costs for its energy exports. Overall demand for chemicals has been on the rise across all sectors of the processing industry. The chemicals and plastics industry has generally maintained an import surplus. Realising the immense potential that lies in refining, petrochemistry and other value-added projects, the government has set forth major development plans.

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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FEATURED COMPANIES

  • KazMunaiGaz
  • Uzbekneftegaz
  • MORE

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 10
Table: Combined Uzbekistan And Kazakhstan Petrochemicals Industry - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2007-2018 14

Macroeconomic Forecasts 15

Macroeconomic Forecast 15

Economic Activity 19
Table: Table: Economic Activity 23

Market Overview 24
Table: Central Asia Petrochemicals Facilities 25

Industry Trends And Developments 30

Company Profile 32

KazMunaiGaz 32

Uzbekneftegaz 36

Regional Overview 39

Europe Overview 39

Declining Capacities 40
Table: European Cracker Capacities, 2013 45

Global Industry Overview 49

A Stable 2013, Leading to Growth in 2014? 49
Table: Top 10 ethylene producers, 2013 51

Long-term growth 51

Shale: The Future of Feedstock? 52

Threats to growth 54

Global Oil Products Price Outlook 54

Methodology 55

Crude Price Forecasts 55
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl) 55

Variance Across Product Markets 56

Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads 58

Weak Demand Persists 60

Risks To Outlook 61
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, US$/bbl 61

Supply: Supported By Global Refining Capacity 62

Naphtha: US Gas Hits Demand 66

Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Subsidies & Fuel Efficiency Cap Upward Movement 68

Jet Fuel: Limited Upward Movement 70
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes 72

Bunker Fuels: Sulphur Control To Hit Rotterdam Hardest 72

Demographic Forecast 76
Table: Kazakhstan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 77
Table: Kazakhstan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 78
Table: Kazakhstan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 79
Table: Kazakhstan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 79

Demographic Forecast 80
Table: Uzbekistan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 81
Table: Uzbekistan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 82
Table: Uzbekistan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 83
Table: Uzbekistan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 83

Methodology 84

Industry Forecast Methodology 84

Risk Reward Rating Methodology 86
Table: Petrochemicals Risk Reward Rating Indicators 88
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 89

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KazMunaiGaz
Uzbekneftegaz

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Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown

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