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Mexico Petrochemicals Report 2014

  • ID: 2723217
  • December 2013
  • Region: Mexico
  • 87 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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In our view, growth in the Mexican petrochemicals sector could be stimulated by liberalisation of the upstream energy sector. President Enrique Pena Nieto's reforms would allow more private sector participation within the petrochemical sector and the broader downstream industry. Under Nieto's plan, new constitutional and contractual arrangements could reverse the decline in oil and gas observed in recent years owing to a bar on foreign investment in upstream resources.

In 2013 Mexico's olefins capacities included 1.58mn tonnes per annum (tpa) of ethylene and 660,000tpa of propylene. These fed downstream capacities of 875,000tpa polyethylene, 590,000tpa polypropylene,
667,000tpa polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and 310,000tpa polystyrene. It is widely recognised that this is not enough to cover domestic demand, let alone take full advantage of Mexico's strategic position as a supplier to the US market.

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BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

Petrochemicals 9

Political 10

Economic 11

Business Environment 12

Industry Forecast 13
Table: Mexico's Petrochemicals Sector, 2011-2017 14

Macroeconomic Forecast 17
Table: Mexico - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth % 21

Industry Risk Reward Ratings 22

Americas Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings 22

Divergence: Large Markets Take The Lead 22
Table: Americas Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 25

Mexico Risk/Reward Ratings 26

Market Overview 27
Table: Mexico's Olefins Facilities 28
Table: Mexico's Polyolefins Facilities 28
Table: Mexico's Aromatics and Directives Facilities 29

Industry Trends And Developments 31

Upstream 31

Company Profile 33

Alfa (Alpek) 33
Table: Alpek Financial Results (MXNmn) 34

Mexichem 35
Table: Mexichem Financial Results (MXNmn) 36

Pemex/Pemex Petroquimica (PPQ) 37

Regional Overview 40

Americas Overview 40
Table: Planned PE Projects In North America, 2014-2019 42

Latin American Supply Lags Behind Demand 44

Naptha Worries 45

Global Industry Overview 48

A Stable 2013, Leading To Growth In 2014? 48
Table: Top 10 Ethylene Producers, 2013 50

Long-Term Growth 50

Shale: The Future Of Feedstock? 52

Threats To growth 55

Global Oil Product Price Outlook 55

Methodology 55

Crude Price Forecasts 56
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl) 56

Variance Across Product Markets 56

Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads 60

Weak Demand Persists 61

Risks To Outlook 62
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, US$/bbl 62

Supply: Supported By Global Refining Capacity 63

Naphtha: US Gas Hits Demand 67

Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Subsidies & Fuel Efficiency Cap Upward Movement 69

Jet Fuel: Limited Upward Movement 71
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes 73

Bunker Fuels: Sulphur Control To Hit Rotterdam Hardest 73

Demographic Forecast 77
Table: Mexico's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 78
Table: Mexico's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 79
Table: Mexico's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 80
Table: Mexico's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 80

Glossary 81
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms 81

Methodology 82

Industry Forecast Methodology 82

Risk Reward Rating Methodology 84
Table: Petrochemicals Risk Reward Rating Indicators 86
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 87

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Alfa (Alpek)
Mexichem
Pemex/Pemex Petroquimica (PPQ)

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Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown

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