Bumper crop last year, only partly offset by lower grain prices, and stagnant domestic demand - picking slightly up toward the end of the year, have been the two main drivers of the sector. Exports of food items – particularly basic grain and oilseeds, surged significantly by 30.5% y/y in value terms. Imports increased of food items increased by less than 1% y/y. Consequently, estimates based on Romania’s foreign trade with food items in Jan-Nov 2013 (latest data available) indicate that the country registered foreign trade surplus for the first time in the past decade.
Food manufacturing sector generated 7.2% higher output in 2013 and its real (PPI adjusted) turnover increased by 6.1% y/y. Sector’s performance has improved significantly from 2012, when both output and real turnover remained rather steady from the year before. Detailed turnover data indicate that the 6.1% y/y rise in companies’ real revenues was driven mainly by exports where the real turnover surged by 57.6%. Sales abroad account for less than 10% of local food companies’ turnover. The real turnover generated by the local market – where most of the local companies’ sales are still concentrated (over 90%) increased by only 1.9% y/y as the demand has strengthened in H2.
Summary of Key Points
- Industrial production in the food manufacturing sector increased by 7.2% y/y 2013
- Food exports increased by 30.5% y/y to EUR 4.57bn in Jan-Nov, 2013
- Sunflower crop hits record 2mn tonnes – 56% up y/y
- Net maize/corn export hit 0.82mn tonnes in November alone; Jul-Nov exports hit 1.99mn tonnes.
- Romania to export 0.5mn cows to China – preliminary agreement.
- Wheat and rye crops up 37% y/y to 7.3mn tonnes in 2013; November net wheat exports exceed 0.5mn tonnes; 2.73mn tonnes exported in Jul-Nov.
2. QuERI Forecast
- Interpretation Of Data
- Forecast Data 1 [Farming, Animal Husbandry, Food Manufacturing]
- Forecast Data 2 [Key Food Manufacturing Sectors]
- Global Food Prices
- Domestic Food Prices
-- Food Prices Corrects Downward In H2, But Rise By 3% Y/Y In Full 2013; Yet Below Average 4% Headline Inflation.
- Industrial Production
-- Food Industry’S Expansion In 2013, Driven By 58% Y/Y Rise In Exports
- Foreign Trade
-- Food Exports Increased By 30.5% Y/Y To Eur 4.57Bn In Jan-Nov, 2013.
- Regulations, Policy
-- Large Farmers Warn Of Inefficient Use Of Eu Funds.
-- Government Cuts Vat Rate For Bakery To 9% As Of September.
4. Vegetal Products
- Wheat And Rye Crops Up 37% Y/Y To 7.3Mn Tonnes In 2013.
- Sunflower Crop Hits Record 1.9Mn Tonnes – 62% Up Y/Y.
- Winter Weather Might Help Winter Crops – Though Premature To Say.
= Foreign Trade
-- Alfred Toepfer Sells Romanian Wheat To Egypt At Usd 280 Per Ton.
-- November Net Wheat Exports Exceed 0.5Mn Tonnes; 2.73Mn Tonnes Exported In Jul-Nov.
-- Net Maize/Corn Export Hit 0.82Mn Tonnes In November Alone.
- Domestic Prices
5. Animal Products
-- Romania To Export 0.5Mn Cows To China – Preliminary Agreement.
- Milk, Dairy
- Sunflower Oil
- Bumper Crop In 2013 Pushes Up Crushers’ Activity.
6. Corporate Round-Up
- Dutch Nidera Trade Builds Silo In Romania.
- Uk Investment Fund Buys Eur 30Mn Agriculture Farm In Romania
- Monsanto Completes Eur 27Mn Investment In Seed Plant.
- Farming Machinery Producer Biso To Build Eur 2Mn Grain Silo In Romania.
7. Appendix 1: Food Prices
8. Appendix 2: Output, Employment, Productivity
9. Appendix 4: Foreign Trade
10. Appendix 4: Crop Output
11. Appendix 5: Foreign Trade By Farming Year, Key Items
List Of Figures
Figure 1: Fao Real Food Price Index [2002-04=100]
Figure 2: Wheat, Maize Prices Gulf Of Mexico [Monthly, Converted To Eur Per Ton For Direct Comparison]
Figure 3: Consumer Price Index Y/Y; Food Prices’ Dynamics Y/Y.
Figure 4: Consumer Prices, 2005=100; Total Consumer Goods, Food Goods And Vegetables.
Figure 5: Food Prices [Year Average, Expressed In Euros, With Base Year 2005; Source: Ins, Intellinews]
Figure 6: Food Prices, Key Items [Monthly, Current Prices, With Base Year 2005; Source: Ins, Intellinews]
Figure 7: Food, Beverages And Total Ind. Turnover [Real Terms, Qtrly, 2005=100]
Figure 8: Output In Food, Beverages And Total Industries [Qtrly, 2005=100]
Figure 9: Industrial Production Per Employee [Qtrly, 2005=100]
Figure 10: Labour Productivity Index [Quarterly; 2010=100]
Figure 11: Foreign Trade Balance, Quarterly; Eur Mn
Figure 12: Structure Of Exports [Quarterly; Eur Mn]
Figure 13: Import, Export And Domestic Grain Prices
Figure 14: Destination Of Romania’S Wheat Exports In Jul-Nov 2013 [Volume Terms]
Figure 15: Destination Of Romania’S Maize/Corn Exports In Jul-Nov 2013 [Volume Terms]
Figure 16: Grain Domestic Prices; Expressed In Usd
Figure 17: Domestic Wheat Prices, Compared To Export/Import/Foreign Markets’ Benchmark Prices [Usd]
Figure 18: Processed Milk – Domestic Vs. Imported
Figure 19: Sunflower Processing Chain – Crude And Refined Production
List Of Tables
Table 1: Fao Real Food Price Index [2002-04=100]
Table 2: Food Prices [Y/Y, Eur Terms]
Table 3: Food Prices [Y/Y, Ron Terms]
Table 4: Labour Productivity [2010=100; Plus Y/Y Change]
Table 5: Breakdown Of Food Exports 2013 Vs. 2012; Volumes And Values [Tonnes, Eur Mn].
Table 6: Breakdown Of Food Imports; Volumes And Values [Tonnes, Eur Mn].
Table 7: Vegetal Crops And Yields 2012-2013 [Source: Ins]
Table 8: Exports Of Agri Items, By Farming Year [Jul-Jun]
Table 9: Imports Of Agri Items By Farming Year [Jul-Jun]
Table 10: Average Wholesale Prices For Main Grains [Local And Foreign Currency]
Table 11: Meat And Animal Production, Exports And Imports [Thousand Tonnes]
Table 12: Dairy Industry: Inputs And Outputs [Yearly, Tonnes]
Table 13: Food Prices [Nominal, Y/Y; Source: Ins, Intellinews]
Table 14: Food Prices [Nominal, Y/Y; Source: Ins, Intellinews]
Table 15: Food Prices [Expressed In Euros, Y/Y; Source: Ins, Intellinews]
Table 16: Food Prices [Expressed In Euros, Y/Y; Source: Ins, Intellinews]
Table 17: Industrial Production Index [2010=100; Plus Y/Y Variation]
Table 18: Real Turnover Index [2010=100; Plus Y/Y Variation] * Ppi Adjusted
Table 19: Employment In Food, Beverages And Total Industries [Annual; Thous. Persons]
Table 20: Labour Productivity Index [2010=100, Ind Output Per Employee; Plus Y/Y Variation]
Table 21: Exports, Imports Of Food, Beverages And Tobacco Items [Annual;; Eur Mn]
Table 22: Exports, Imports Of Food, Beverages And Tobacco Items [Quarterly; Eur Mn]
Table 23: Grain, Oilseeds 1990-2011 Crops, Yields [Thous Tonnes, Average; Source: Agriculture Ministry]