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Digital Music: Analysis and Forecasts

Parks Associates, January 2005

Consumers continue to adopt electronic formats for music largely ignoring the raging legal debate over piracy and P2P networks. This report examines adoption trends, usage patterns, and the service providers offering electronically distributed music. It provides the latest consumer data, market analysis, player profiles, and revenue forecasts and is a comprehensive guide to digital music, a must-have for those impacted by this dynamic change.

Based on consumer surveys and the latest industry data, this report provides an in-depth look at the music space and the issues, technologies, and players that matter. Learn who is using digital music and portable MP3 players, how these files and devices are being used, and who is likely to buy over the next year. Moreover, the report profiles households with PC-stereo connections and online music providers.

The Bottom Line is a concise, executive-level summary of the current state of the market, evolutionary path, and the implications for companies doing business in this space.

The Resource Book contains a wealth of consumer survey data and company profiles — a must-have reference for product/market planning.

Companies profiled:
- BuyMusic@Buy.com
- eMusic.com, Inc.
- iTunes (Apple Computer)
- Magnatune
- MSN Music
- Musicmatch, Inc.
- MusicNet, Inc.
- MusicNow, LLC
- Napster, LLC
- Rhapsody
- Sony Connect
- Wal-Mart
- Yahoo LaunchCast

The Bottom Line

1.0 Notes on Methodology
1.1 Consumer Data
1.2 Definitions

2.0 Service Providers
2.1 Distribution Models
2.2 Legal P2P
2.3 Partnerships with ISPs

3.0 Consumer Adoption and Usage Patterns

4.0 Market Demand

5.0 Hardware and Technology
5.1 Operating Systems
5.2 DRM and Janus
5.3 UPnP
5.4 Portable MP3 Players
5.5 Music and Mobile Phones
5.6 PC-Stereo Connections and Digital Media Adapters

6.0 Forecasts

7.0 Implications

Resource Book

Section I: Profile of Digital Music Users

Section II: Profile of High Intenders for Digital Music

Section III: Adoption of MP3 Players

Section IV: Digital Music and Portable MP3 Players

Section V: Profile of Households with a TV/Stereo-Computer Connection

Section VI: Service Provider Profiles
BuyMusic@Buy.com
eMusic.com, Inc.
iTunes (Apple Computer)
Magnatune
MSN Music
Musicmatch, Inc.
MusicNet, Inc.
MusicNow, LLC
Napster, LLC
Rhapsody
Sony Connect
Wal-Mart
Yahoo LaunchCast

LIST OF FIGURES

The Bottom Line

Online Music Distribution Methods
Distribution Methods: Strengths and Weaknesses
Service Provider Overview
Consumer Adoption of PC Based Music
Overlap Between Digital Music Habits
Peer-to-Peer Network Use and Online Music Purchase
Intent to Purchase Online Music
Digital Music Users: OS Platforms
Digital Music Users and Ownership of Portable MP3 Players
Digital Music Purchasing
MP3 Player Owners and Intent to Purchase Digital Music
Mobile Phones and Digital Music
Music Features for Mobile Phones
Computers Connected to TVs and Stereos
Interest in Audio Adapters Among Owners of Portable MP3 Players
Appeal of Audio Adapters and Music Applications
Music-on-Demand Forecasts and Adoption
Digital Music Forecasts
Music-on-Demand Forecast
A la carte Music Downloading Forecast

Resource Book

Internet Households and Digital Music Habits
Online Music Comparisons
P2P Use and Buying Digital Music
Digital Music Use and Head-of-Household Gender
Digital Music Use and Head-of-Household Race
Digital Music Use and Head-of-Household Age
Digital Music Use and Head-of-Household Income
Digital Music Use and Head-of-Household Education
Digital Music Use and Head-of-Household Marital Status
Digital Music Use and Type of Home
Digital Music Use and Household Ownership
Digital Music Use and Number of Adults in Household
Digital Music Use and Number of People Under 18 in Household
Intent to Purchase Online Music
Likelihood of Purchasing Online Music and P2P Use
High Intenders for Digital Music by Gender
High Intenders for Digital Music by Race
High Intenders for Digital Music by Age
High Intenders for Digital Music by Income
High Intenders for Digital Music by Marital Status
High Intenders for Digital Music by Education
High Intenders for Digital Music by Type of Home
High Intenders for Digital Music by Number of Adults in Household
High Intenders for Digital Music by Household Ownership
High Intenders for Digital Music by Number of People Under 18 in Household
Adoption of Portable MP3 Players by Age
Adoption of Portable MP3 Players by Education
Adoption of Portable MP3 Players by Marital Status
Adoption of Portable MP3 Players by Income
Digital Music Habits and Ownership of Portable MP3 Players
Portable MP3 Players and Digital Music Purchasing
Portable MP3 Players and Intent to Purchase Digital Music
Digital Music Users and Ownership of Portable MP3 Players
Digital Music High Intenders and Ownership of Portable MP3 Players
Percentage Adopting PC-TV or PC-Stereo Connections
Media Connections and Gender
Media Connections and Race
Media Connections and Age
Media Connections and Income
Media Connections and Marital Status
Media Connections and Education
Media Connections and Students
Media Connections and Housing Type
Media Connections and Home Ownership
Media Connections and Number of Adults in Household
Media Connections and Household Members Under 18
eMusic Digital Music Service
Apple Computer Financial Overview
iTunes Music Sales
Microsoft Financial Overview
MSN Music Digital Music Service
Musicmatch Digital Music Service
MusicNow Digital Music Service
Napster 2.0 Digital Music Service
RealNetworks Financial Overview
Rhapsody Digital Music Service
Virgin Digital Music Service
Wal-Mart Financial Overview
Yahoo! Financial Overview
Yahoo! Digital Music Service

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