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Uganda Defence and Security Report Q4 2014

  • ID: 2988166
  • October 2014
  • Region: Uganda
  • 64 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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In recent years, the size of the Uganda People's Defence Force (UPDF) and the country's arms procurement have grown significantly, a trend BMI expect to continue over the forecast period. This primarily reflects the growing role of the army in Uganda's domestic political landscape, which we attribute to Museveni's increasing domestic political isolation, as well as the need to maintain the country's status as a strategic ally of the US. As such, we expect imports to Uganda, which lacks its own military-industrial base, from Russia and China in particular, to steadily increase for the foreseeable future.

A key driver behind Uganda's continued desire to maintain its arms capability is its continued military involvement in South Sudan. Following the breaking out of fighting in Juba in December 2013, Uganda intervened, deploying two battalions into the country. Uganda Peoples' Defence Force (UPDF)
spokesperson has stated that the army's mission is primarily to protect key installations and to ease safe evacuation of the Uganda nationals in South Sudan. However, BMI believes that Uganda's decision to deploy its military in South Sudan is less a benevolent act and more an assertion of its increasing regional dominance.

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BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

Uganda Security SWOT 9

Uganda Defence & Security SWOT 11

Industry Forecast 12

Defence Expenditure 12
Table: Defence Expenditure (Uganda 2011-2018) 14

Defence Trade 15

Defence Imports 15
Table: Defence Imports (Uganda 2011-2018) 16

Defence Exports 16
Table: Defence Exports (Uganda 2011-2018) 17

Macroeconomic Forecasts 18

Economic Analysis 18
Table: Economic Activity (Uganda 2009-2018) 23

Industry Risk Reward Ratings 24

Middle East And Africa Security Risk Ratings 24
Table: Middle East And Africa Regional Security Ratings 24
Table: Middle East And Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 25

Uganda Security Risk Ratings 26

Market Overview 27

Uganda Defence Market Overview 27

Armed Forces 28

Weapons Of Mass Destruction 31

Uganda Security Overview 33

Domestic Threats 33

Regional Threats 34

International Threats 35

Regional Overview 36

Middle East And North Africa Security Overview 36

Global Industry Overview 51

Russia- Russia-Ukraine Crisis: Nine Geopolitical Consequences 51

Political Risk Analysis 56

Methodology 61

Industry Forecast Methodology 61

Sector-Specific Methodology 62

Sources 63

Security Risk Ratings Methodology 63
Table: Indicators And Weighting 64

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