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Vietnam Defence and Security Report Q4 2014

  • ID: 2988195
  • October 2014
  • Region: Vietnam
  • 69 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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BMI View: The Vietnamese defence sector is quickly opening up to foreign companies. Rising tension with China necessitates development of new defence relationships, as well as modernisation and expansion of the national defence forces. Meanwhile, strong economic growth is increasing the financing available for procurement of new military hardware.

Vietnam is involved in territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea, most notably over the Spratly and Parcel Islands. Tensions reached a new high in May which resulted in a two month stand-off between opposing naval forces, and small scale skirmishes between vessels. Tension came to a head in August, when a Vietnamese envoy to Beijing successfully ended the stand-off. Relations remain fraught however, and China is likely to exert economic pressure on its neighbour, which could have serious consequences for Vietnamese defence capabilities.

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BMI Industry View 7

Key BMI Forecasts 8

Recent Developments 8

SWOT 9

Vietnam Security SWOT 9

Vietnam Defence SWOT 12

Political 14

Economic 15

Business Environment 17

Industry Forecast 18

Defence Expenditure 18
Table: Defence Expenditure (Vietnam 2011-2018) 18
Table: Defence Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of GDP (Vietnam 2011-2018) 21

Armed Forces 21
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (Vietnam 2004-2011) 22
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service (Vietnam 2011-2018) 22

Defence Trade 23
Table: Defence Trade Balance (Vietnam 2011-2018) 23

Imports 24
Table: Defence Imports (Vietnam 2011-2018) 24

Exports 25
Table: Defence Exports (Vietnam 2011-2018) 25

Macroeconomic Forecasts 26

Economic Analysis 26
Table: Economic Activity (Vietnam 2009-2018) 32

Industry Risk Reward Ratings 33

Asia Security Risk Ratings 33
Table: Asia Security Risk Ratings 33
Table: Asia State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 34

Vietnam Security Risk Ratings 35

Market Overview 37

Vietnam Defence Market Overview 37

Recent Developments 37

Armed Forces 38

Domestic Industries 39

Imports 41

Vietnam Security Overview 44

Domestic Threats 44

Regional Threats 45

International Threats 47

Regional Overview 48

South East Asia Security Overview 48

Global Industry Overview 61

Political Risk Analysis 61

Methodology 66

Industry Forecast Methodology 66

Sector-Specific Methodology 67

Sources 68

Security Risk Ratings Methodology 68
Table: Indicators And Weighting 69

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