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China Defence and Security Report Q4 2014

  • ID: 2988198
  • October 2014
  • Region: China
  • 89 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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Like many aspects of its defence posture, China keeps its annual defence budget secret, nevertheless, it is possible to make an accurate estimate regarding what the country spends annually on defence. To this end,
we expect China's defence budget to reach USD132bn in 2014. By 2018, we expect China's defence budget to reach USD187bn.

We have given China an overall security risk rating of 74 for Q414. On average, the country has scored an overall security risk rating at the same level for the period January 2009 until Q414. We believe China faces a low risk of becoming involved in a major interstate conflict. Similarly, it faces a low risk of experiencing a major terrorist attack, although its susceptibility to criminal activity remains high.

China's occasionally tempestuous relationship with India was tested once again in mid-August 2014 when Chinese troops entered territory claimed by India. The move follows similar incursions which occurred in 2013 and, once again, took place in an unpopulated area close to the northern Indian city of Ladakh.

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FEATURED COMPANIES

  • Chengdu Aircraft Company
  • MORE

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

China Security SWOT 9

China Defence SWOT 12

Political 15

Economic 16

Business Environment 17

Industry Forecast 18

Defence Budget 18
Table: Defence Expenditure (China 2011-2018) 18
Table: Defence Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of GDP (China 2011-2018) 19

Armed Forces 20
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (China 2004-2011) 20
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service (China 2011-2018) 21

Defence Trade 21
Table: Defence Exports (China 2011-2018) 22
Table: Defence Imports (China 2011-2018) 22
Table: Defence Trade Balance (China 2011-2018) 23

Macroeconomic Forecasts 24

Economic Analysis 24

More Cities To Witness Price Declines 25

Government, PBoC Likely To Tweak Policies 27

Economic Reforms Another Headwind 27
Table: Economic Activity (China 2009-2018) 29

Industry Risk Reward Ratings 30

Asia Security Risk Ratings 30
Table: Asia Security Risk Ratings 30
Table: Asia State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 31

China Security Risk Ratings 32

Market Overview 33

China Defence Market Overview 33

Armed Forces 33

Domestic Industries 34

Procurement 38

Weapons Of Mass Destruction 42

China Security Overview 44

Domestic Threats 45

Regional Threats 50

International Threats 57

Company Profile 64

Chengdu Aircraft Company 64

China Aviation Industry Corporation 65

China National Nuclear Corporation 66

China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation 68

China South Industries Group Corporation (CSG) 69

Regional Overview 70

North East Asia Security Overview 70

Global Industry Overview 81

Political Risk Analysis 81

Methodology 86

Industry Forecast Methodology 86

Sector-Specific Methodology 87

Sources 88

Security Risk Ratings Methodology 88
Table: Indicators And Weighting 89

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Chengdu Aircraft Company
China Aviation Industry Corporation
China National Nuclear Corporation
China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation
China South Industries Group Corporation (CSG)

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