Mexico Metals Report Q4 2014

  • ID: 2988236
  • October 2014
  • Region: Mexico
  • 34 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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BMI View: Expansion of the automotive, manufacturing, construction, and oil and gas sectors, all of which rely on steel and other refined metals as inputs, will enable steady production and consumption growth for Mexico's metal sector to 2018. Domestic steel producers will contend with cheaper foreign imports and US duties on Mexican exports, though investment into and output from the sector is unlikely to face significant risks.

Strengthening economic growth in Mexico over the next five years will underpin production and consumption growth of Mexican metals, particularly steel. While weaker-than-expected economic activity in H114 prompted us to downgrade our 2014 real GDP growth forecast from 3.1% to 2.6%, we expect the economy to accelerate markedly in H214 and 2015, driven by a recovery in the construction sector, stronger manufacturing exports, and an improvement in real private consumption. For 2015, we forecast real GDP growth of 3.7%, and for average annual growth of 3.8% in 2016-2018. These factors should ensure Mexico remains the second-largest producer and consumer of steel in Latin America, behind Brazil.

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BMI Industry View 7


Metals SWOT 10

Industry Forecast 11

Steel: Metals-Intensive Growth 11

Positive Construction Dynamics To Support Steel Demand 11

Manufacturing, Oil & Gas Sectors Also To Drive Steel Industry Growth 12

Domestic And Foreign Steelmakers To Grow Production 14

Imports To Increase 14
Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Mexico 2010-2018) 15
Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Mexico 2005-2012) 15

Regulatory Development 17

Recent Developments 17

Business Environment To Support Steel Industry 17

Tax Regime 17

Anti-Corruption Efforts Remain Priority 18
Table: Political Overview 19

Commodities Forecast 20

Steel: Prices To Head Higher From 2016 20
Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast 20

Short-Term Outlook (three-to-six months) 20

Long-Term Outlook 21

Production: Chinese Rationalisation Measures To Bite 22

Consumption: Slowing Demand Growth On The Horizon 23

Burgeoning Chinese Exports Will Not Last 24

Eurozone Growth Downgrade Highlights Long Road To Recovery 25

Risks To Price Forecast 25
Table: Steel Data & Forecasts 26

Competitive Landscape 27
Table: Mexico - Major Metals Producers 27

Foreign Firms To Maintain Growing Presence 28

Company Profile 29

ArcelorMittal 29

Company Overview 31

Company Strategy 31

Latest Financial Results 33

Company Details 33

Financial Data 33
Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data 33

Methodology 34

Cross Checks 34

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