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Commercial Insight: HIV in the USA - Increasing Choice, Flexibility and Competition


Description: With a focus on the commercial environment within the HIV sector in the USA, this Analysis investigates key market characteristics and the strategies required to improve market conditions. Analysis of company portfolio strategies and product positioning provides the reader with knowledge of how company strategies result in varying levels of commercial returns. Scope: - Detailed case studies featuring company portfolio, product development and launch strategies - US sales data for the top 10 HIV products along with forecasts to 2011 for the top 10 selling HIV drugs and classes - Swot analyses of key HIV drugs are provided, along with 12-month event screens - providing detailed knowledge of events specific to each product Report Highlights: Despite a predicted slow down in overall growth and key obstacles with regard to efficacy, diagnosis, resistance and compliance, we predict that the US HIV market will more than double by 2011 providing an additional $4.2 bn in revenue. The approval of Roche’s novel fusion inhibitor Fuzeon will change treatment strategies for late stage patients. The key barrier to use is its delivery method (subcutaneous) and high price. With the launch of BMS’ Reyataz and BI’s tipranavir, the PI drug class will be as large as the Nrti drug class in terms of number of therapeutics. This will shift the usage of Haart towards Nrti-sparing regimens. Reasons to Purchase: - Understand the relationship between company product positioning strategies and HIV market characteristics - Gain insight to HIV portfolio strategies and factors that drive successful drug development and launch


Contents: Overview Introduction An analysis of the current commercial environment for HIV therapeutics in the US. Using multiple case studies, this report provides recommendations for current and future players in the HIV market. MARKET SEGMENTATION & DEFINITION Overview of the characteristics of the HIV market as well as therapeutic class definitions What are the key advantages and disadvantages of each class of drug? What is the gold standard drug and how is this compared to other drugs? What are the associated pharmaceutical markets? US MARKET ANALYSIS This chapter provides a detailed analysis of the US market along with event screens for the top 10 selling antiretrovirals. SWOT and drug forecast for the top 10 selling HIV drugs. 12-month event screens for the top 10 selling HIV drugs in the US. LIFECYCLE AND PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT This chapter provides strategic portfolio analysis as well as lifecycle management strategies. What are the current key launch strategies employed in the HIV market? How can a company optimize peak sales? What are the key patient targeting strategies and revenue protection strategies? STRATEGIC PRODUCT POSITIONING This chapter provides pricing strategies and the relationship between pricing and product positioning. Furthermore, the role of patient advocacy is discussed and physician targeting strategies. What do companies need to do to justify setting prestige pricing points? Can physician detailing be improved? How? How much influence do patients have in drug prescription? How does patient advocacy affect product positioning? ACTION POINTS Action point 1 – It is imperative for companies to focus on developing radical innovations rather than lifecycle management Action point 2 – Physician detailing will become increasingly important moving forward. Key opinion leader favor will drive drug uptake Action point 3 – Maximizing pre-launch drug awareness and patient dependence in pipeline is crucial to health drug uptake. Companies should seek to increase early access options. APPENDIX US product specific sales data by quarter and forecasts by year are provided. DATASETS Table 1: Forecast US sales for the top selling NNRTIs ($m), 2001 – 2011 Table 2: US Combivir sales forecasts, 2003 – 2011 Table 3: Gold standard comparison by indication and class, 2003 Table 4: US HIV drug sales ($m), 2001 – 2011 Table 5: Combivir: key facts Table 6: US Combivir sales forecasts, 2003 – 2011 Table 7: Epivir: key facts Table 8: US Epivir sales forecasts, 2003 – 2011 Table 9: Trizivir: key facts Table 10: US Trizivir sales forecasts, 2003 – 2011 Table 11: Viread: key facts Table 12: US Viread sales forecasts, 2003 – 2011 Table 13: Zerit: key facts Table 14: US Zerit sales forecasts, 2003 – 2011 Table 15: Ziagen: key facts Table 16: US Ziagen sales forecasts, 2003 – 2011 Table 17: Other NRTI drugs: key facts Table 18: R&D included in NRTI forecast, 2003- 2011 Table 19: Sustiva: key facts Table 20: US Sustiva sales forecasts, 2003 – 2011 Table 21: Viramune: key facts Table 22: US Ziagen sales forecasts, 2003 – 2011 Table 23: Rescriptor: key facts Table 24: R&D included in NNRTI forecast, 2003- 2011 Table 25: Kaletra: key facts Table 26: US Kaletra sales forecasts, 2003 – 2011 Table 27: Viracept: key facts Table 28: US Viracept sales forecasts, 2003 – 2011 Table 29: Other PI drugs: key facts Table 30: R&D included in PI forecast, 2003- 2011 Table 31: Fuzeon: key facts Table 32: Analyst estimates of Fuzeon sales, 2003 – 2004 Table 33: R&D in EI drug class Table 34: Global pharmaceutical sales for HIV drug manufacturers, 2000 – 2002 Table 35: Global sales of infectious disease products for HIV drug manufacturers, 2000 – 2002 Table 36: Global HIV product sales for HIV drug manufacturers, 2000 - 2002 Table 37: Proportion of global pharmaceutical revenues generated by infectious disease franchises and HIV franchises, 2002 Table 38: Proportion of infectious disease revenues generated by HIV portfolio, 2002 Table 39: Comparison of global pharmaceutical, infectious disease and HIV CAGRs for HIV drug manufacturers, 2000 - 2002 Table 40: US pharmaceutical, infectious disease and HIV product sales for HIV drug manufacturers, 2002 Table 41: Comparison of sales share of global and US HIV markets for HIV drug manufacturers (%), 2002 Table 42: Global HIV market comparison to other infectious disease areas 2003 – 2010 ($m) Table 43: Comparison of HIV market leader global revenue dynamics to peer products in other infectious disease areas ($m), 2002 Table 44: Criteria for determining therapy attractiveness Table 45: HIV market leader portfolio composition, 2002 Table 46: Annual US prices for currently marketed antiretrovirals, 2003 Table 47: Cost comparison for commonly used HIV drug regimens in the US, 2003 Table 48: US sales data ($m) for the top 10 selling HIV drugs by quarter, 2001 – 2002 Table 49: Forecast US sales for the top selling NRTIs ($m), 2001 – 2011 Table 50: Forecast US sales for the top selling NNRTIs ($m), 2001 – 2011 Table 51: Forecast US sales for the top selling PIs ($m), 2001 – 2011 Figure 1: Therapeutic attractiveness matrix for selected infectious disease areas, 2003 – 2007 Figure 2: Timeline: the development of HIV therapy, 1987–2003 Figure 3: Top 10 drug contribution to market growth, 2001 – 2011 Figure 4: Key NRTI contribution to US market growth, 2001-2011 Figure 5: Key factors in the market dynamics of Combivir, 2003 Figure 6: Key factors in the market dynamics of Epivir, 2003 Figure 7: Key factors in the market dynamics of Trizivir, 2003 Figure 8: Key factors in the market dynamics of Viread, 2003 Figure 9: Key factors in the market dynamics of Zerit, 2003 Figure 10: Key factors in the market dynamics of Ziagen, 2003 Figure 11: Key factors in the market dynamics of Sustiva, 2003 Figure 12: Key factors in the market dynamics of Viramune, 2003 Figure 13: Key factors in the market dynamics of Kaletra, 2003 Figure 14: Key factors in the market dynamics of Viracept, 2003 Figure 15: Key factors in the market dynamics of Fuzeon, 2003 Figure 16: SWOT analysis of GSK’s portfolio strategy, 2003 Figure 17: GSK’s therapeutic strategy to 2007 Figure 18: SWOT analysis of BMS’s portfolio strategy, 2003 Figure 19: BMS’ therapeutic strategy to 2007 Figure 20: SWOT analysis of Abbott’s portfolio strategy, 2003 Figure 21: Comparison of average global company pharmaceutical, infectious disease and HIV product sales, 2000 - 2002 Figure 22: Comparison of US pharmaceutical, infectious disease and HIV sales dominance by rank, 2002 Figure 23: Comparison of sales share of the global and US HIV markets by HIV drug manufacturer, 2002 Figure 24: Global HIV market comparison to other infectious disease areas 2003 – 2010 ($m) Figure 25: Therapeutic attractiveness matrix for selected infectious disease areas, 2003 – 2007 Figure 26: Global sales of Retrovir, 1987 – 2002 Figure 27: Retrovir’s global sales lifecycle characteristics, 1987 – 2002 Figure 28: Global sales lifecycle curves for GSK’s antiretrovirals, 1987 – 2002 Figure 29: Kaletra positioning summary, 2001 Figure 30: Kaletra pre-launch strategy, 1996 – 2000 Figure 31: Kaletra positioning strategy Figure 32: Comparison of US Kaletra and Trizivir sales growth, 2000 – 2002 Figure 33: Comparison of US Sustiva and Ziagen sales growth, 2000 – 2002 Figure 34: Combivir and Trizivir uptake analysis 2003 Figure 35: Sales of Kaletra and Viracept following Kaletra launch, 2000 - 2002 Figure 36: Viread and Zerit US sales by quarter preceding and following Viread launch, 2000 – 2002 Figure 37: Lifecycle of a drug, and the potential effect of reformulation Figure 38: Factors affecting company intervention in issues of public interest, 2003 Figure 39: Methodology for calculating average annual drug cost Figure 40: Comparison of average vs. total cost for key combination regimens used in the US, 2003 Figure 41: Comparison of price points charged by GSK and BMS for their HIV portfolios in the US, 2003 Figure 42: Comparison of Trizivir and Combivir pricing in the US, 2003 Figure 43: AAHIVM segmentation of HIV-treating physicians by specialty, 2003 Figure 44: Patient segmentation by treating physicians Figure 45: Strategies involved in physician detailing Figure 46: Maximizing promotional effectiveness Figure 47: Viread patient product positioning Figure 48: Pre and post-launch strategies for the HIV industry, 2003




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