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Philippines Defence and Security Report Q4 2014

  • ID: 3025682
  • October 2014
  • Region: Philippines
  • 72 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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BMI View: While opportunities exist in the Philippines defence market in the short term, opportunities in the medium-to-long term are far from certain. Although the defence spending is increasing, there is a need to place it within a regional perspective. We think that the risk of Philippine involvement in an interstate conflict has increased slightly over the last quarter. Also, the scaling back of US support for the Philippines counter-terrorism program may not bode well in the long term.

Relations with China further deteriorated following the Philippines sentencing of 12 Chinese fisherman arrested for illegal fishing in non-disputed waters. Another trial of Chinese fishermen for supposed activity near the disputed Spratly Islands risks aggravating further tensions between the two countries. BMI thinks that these incidents demonstrate the Philippines readiness to respond to what it perceives as Chinese aggression.

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BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

Philippines Security SWOT 9

Philippines Defence SWOT 12

Political 14

Economic 15

Business Environment 16

Industry Forecast 17
Table: Defence Expenditure (Philippines 2011-2018) 17
Table: Defence Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of GDP (Philippines 2011-2018) 19

Armed Forces 20
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (Philippines 2004-2011) 20
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service (Philippines 2011-2018) 21

Defence Trade 22
Table: Defence Trade Balance (Philippines 2011-2018) 23

Imports 23
Table: Defence Imports (Philippines 2011-2018) 24

Exports 24
Table: Defence Exports (Philippines 2011-2018) 25

Macroeconomic Forecasts 26

Economic Analysis 26

Remittances To Remain Supportive Of Private Consumption Growth 27

Modest Export Rebound On The Cards 28

Investment To Recover Amid Rising Business Confidence 29

Rebuilding Efforts To Spur Government Spending 30

Risks To Outlook 30
Table: Economic Activity (Philippines 2009-2018) 30

Industry Risk Reward Ratings 31

Asia Security Risk Ratings 31
Table: Asia Security Risk Ratings 31
Table: Asia State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 32

Philippines Security Risk Ratings 33

Market Overview 34

Philippines Defence Market Overview 34

Armed Forces 35

Domestic Industries 36

Exports 38

Imports 38

Philippines Security Overview 41

Domestic Threats 41
Table: Philippine Insurgent Groups 43

Regional Threats 43

International Threats 45

Company Profile 48

Arms Corporation of the Philippines (Armscor) 48

Government Arsenal 49

Regional Overview 51

South East Asia Security Overview 51

Global Industry Overview 64

Political Risk Analysis 64

Methodology 69

Industry Forecast Methodology 69

Sector-Specific Methodology 70

Sources 71

Security Risk Ratings Methodology 71
Table: Indicators And Weighting 72

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Arms Corporation of the Philippines (Armscor)
Government Arsenal

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