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Iran Metals Report Q1 2015

  • ID: 3025741
  • October 2014
  • Region: Iran
  • 42 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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FEATURED COMPANIES

  • Mobarakeh Steel Company
  • MORE

The outlook for Iran's metals sector is improving for the first time in years as sanctions begin to be eased following negotiations with the Western powers. On the whole, however, we are far from sanguine given our bearish outlook for steel prices and the fact that any rapprochement with the West, if indeed they happen, will be drawn out and not have a significant impact in the near term. We note with scepticism,
Iran's plans to increase its steel capacity from 20mn tonnes per annum (mntpa) to 55mntpa by 2025, as well as a tripling of aluminium smelter capacity to 1.5mntpa.

While a cut in external trade has impacted negatively on the steel industry, isolation has ensured that imports have also been restricted. However, domestic industrial deficiencies in certain market segments mean that Iran will struggle to meet its own needs in spite of declining consumption. Crude steel output rose 11.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 13.27mn tonnes in the first 11 months of 2013, representing one of the strongest growth rates in the world, rivalling Turkey's.

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FEATURED COMPANIES

  • Mobarakeh Steel Company
  • MORE

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

Metals SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 10

Steel: Reduction In Sanctions To Allow Growth 10
Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Iran 2010-2018) 13
Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Iran 2005-2012) 14

Regulatory Development 15

Corruption 15

Tax Regime 15
Table: Iran - Political Overview 15

Commodities Forecast 17

Commodity Strategy 17

Ferrous Metals 18

Non-Ferrous Metals: 21

Aluminium: Prices To Remain Elevated Following Recent Dip 21

Copper: Chinese Weakness To Create Further Headwinds 22

Nickel: No Sustained Rally Ahead 24

Zinc: Subdued Short-Term Outlook Before Multi-Year Gains 27
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 28

Steel: Prices To Head Higher From 2016 29
Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast 29

Short-Term Outlook (three-to-six months) 29

Long-Term Outlook 30

Production: Chinese Rationalisation Measures To Bite 31

Consumption: Slowing Demand Growth On The Horizon 32

Burgeoning Chinese Exports Will Not Last 33

Eurozone Growth Downgrade Highlights Long Road To Recovery 34

Risks To Price Forecast 34
Table: Steel Data & Forecasts 35

Competitive Landscape 36
Table: Production & Sales By Producer (2013) 36
Table: Middle East - Largest Listed Metal Producers 39

Company Profile 40

Mobarakeh Steel Company 40

Methodology 42

Cross Checks 42

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Mobarakeh Steel Company

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