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Australia Metals Report Q1 2015

  • ID: 3025764
  • October 2014
  • Region: Australia
  • 60 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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FEATURED COMPANIES

  • BHP Billiton
  • Rio Tinto
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BMI View: Australia will see subdued growth in both production and consumption of most metals as a weakening global commodity market continues to take its toll on the economy. While significant additional global monetary stimulus should help to boost metal prices in the near term, the bout of loosening measures will be insufficient to stem the slowdown and the medium-term outlook for metals remains weak.

We expect a slowdown in the metals industry in Australia on the back of slowing demand in China. Weak demand from slowing domestic construction and a cooling export market will continue to undermine Australia's steel industry in 2015 and beyond. We do not expect crude to approach pre-crisis levels for many years. The country's two dominant steel producers, BlueScope Steel Ltd and Arrium Ltd (previously known as OneSteel Ltd), have embarked on a series of consolidation plans and restructuring programmes aimed at reducing operating costs and curbing overcapacity amid an environment of weak demand and declining steel prices.

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FEATURED COMPANIES

  • BHP Billiton
  • Rio Tinto
  • MORE

BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

Metals SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 11

Steel: Construction Slowdown To Dominate 11
Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Australia 2010-2018) 15
Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Australia 2005-2012) 15

Aluminium: Slow Growth To 2017 16
Table: Aluminium Production & Consumption (Australia 2010-2018) 19

Nickel: Weak Prices To Restrain Output Growth 20
Table: Refined Nickel Production & Consumption (Australia 2010-2018) 23

Regulatory Development 24

Tax Regime 24
Table: Australia - Political Summary 25

Commodities Forecast 26

Commodity Strategy 26

Ferrous Metals 27

Non-Ferrous Metals: 30

Aluminium: Prices To Remain Elevated Following Recent Dip 30

Copper: Chinese Weakness To Create Further Headwinds 31

Nickel: No Sustained Rally Ahead 33

Zinc: Subdued Short-Term Outlook Before Multi-Year Gains 36
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 37

Steel: Prices To Head Higher From 2016 38
Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast 38

Short-Term Outlook (three-to-six months) 38

Long-Term Outlook 39

Production: Chinese Rationalisation Measures To Bite 40

Consumption: Slowing Demand Growth On The Horizon 41

Burgeoning Chinese Exports Will Not Last 42

Eurozone Growth Downgrade Highlights Long Road To Recovery 43

Risks To Price Forecast 43
Table: Steel Data & Forecasts 44

Competitive Landscape 45

Australia To Remain World Leader for Investment 45
Table: Australia - Largest Listed Metal Producers 46

Company Profile 47

Rio Tinto 47

Company Overview 49

Company Strategy 50

Latest Financial Results 51
Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data 53

BHP Billiton 54

Latest Financial Results 56
Table: BHP Billiton - Supply Chain Analysis 58
Table: BHP Billiton - Key Financial Data 59

Methodology 60

Cross Checks 60

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Rio Tinto
BHP Billiton

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