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Turkey Metals Report Q1 2015

  • ID: 3041988
  • November 2014
  • Region: Turkey
  • 48 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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BMI View: Despite relatively weak growth to be expected over the coming months, the medium-term outlook for Turkey's metals sector remains promising due to strong demand from the domestic construction and autos sectors. Near-term headwinds are likely to include currency weakness making imports of materials more expensive and weak global steel prices squeezing steel-makers' margins. Long-term political risk in Turkey also presents a key downside risk.

Over the medium-term we forecast Turkey's total steel production to grow from 34.7mnt in 2013 to 44.6mnt in 2018. We expect growth to average 5.2% y-o-y over 2014-2018, as we predict a recovery from the negative growth seen during 2013, which was a result of weak global steel prices and a weak lira pushing up the cost of imports of materials.

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BMI Industry View 7

SWOT 9

Metals SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 11

Steel: Stronger Growth Ahead 11

Consumption 12

Production 13
Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Turkey 2010-2018) 16
Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Turkey 2005-2012) 16

Regulatory Development 17

Political Risk 17

Economic Risk 17

Business Environment Risk 18

Anti-Corruption Drive Paying Off 18

Tax Regime 18
Table: Political Overview 19

Commodities Forecast 21

Commodity Strategy 21

Ferrous Metals 21

Non-Ferrous Metals: 24

Aluminium: Price Headwinds To Persist Despite Market Tightness 24

Copper: Bounce To Prove Temporary 25

Nickel: Multiple Price Headwinds To Persist 27

Zinc: No Sustained Gains 30
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 32

Steel: Prices To Head Higher From 2016 32
Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast 32

Short-Term Outlook (three-to-six months) 32

Long-Term Outlook 33

Production: Chinese Rationalisation Measures To Bite 34

Consumption: Slowing Demand Growth On The Horizon 35

Burgeoning Chinese Exports Will Not Last 36

Eurozone Growth Downgrade Highlights Long Road To Recovery 37

Risks To Price Forecast 37
Table: Steel Data & Forecasts 38

Competitive Landscape 39
Table: Turkey - Steel Mills 39
Table: Turkey - Largest Listed Metal Producers, Key Financial Metrics 40

Company Profile 41

Erdemir 41

Company Strategy 43
Table: Erdemir - Financial Data 43

Kardemir 45

Company Strategy 46
Table: Kardemir - Financial Data 47

Methodology 48

Cross Checks 48

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Erdemir
Kardemir

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